The RMB Exchange Rate Is Going Against The Trend, The High Trade Is Weak Or The Appreciation Space Is Limited.

　 Analysis says RMB rate Or a phased devaluation.

Although the international rating agencies lowered the negative rating of China's rating, yesterday, the central parity and spot price of the RMB against the US dollar both rewrote the new high since 2005, and the trading market price intraday hit the "daily limit" again. This is the first time this year's RMB dollar exchange rate has reached a limit.

　　 RMB exchange rate is in a new trend.

Last night, Fitch announced that the rating of China's repayment of long-term local currency debt from "AA-" to "A+". Yesterday was the first trading day after the rating was downgraded, but yesterday the RMB against the US dollar went against the trend.

Yesterday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.2548, an increase of 91 basis points from the previous trading day, breaking a record high of 2 in April. The opening of the middle price led to the activity of the trading market. Yesterday's spot market opened higher and higher than before. The intraday exchange rate rose to 6.1923, hitting a trading ceiling which deviated from the middle price by 1%, hitting the "limit up" for the first time since December 12th last year.

Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank's financial market, believes that based on the recent characteristics of China's economic stabilization, the market does not recognize Fitch's downgrading of China, and China's economic recovery is a major factor for the revaluation of the renminbi.

　 　 Trade Lack of strength or restriction of appreciation space

Whether the RMB exchange rate will restart a unilateral appreciation? The chief economist of the Industrial Bank, Lu commissar, believes that although the short-term factors may continue to cause the renminbi to strengthen, in the long run, the RMB has little appreciation to the US dollar. On the other hand, the international competitiveness of some industries in China is declining and unable to support greater appreciation.

The strength of the RMB exchange rate has a certain impact on the trade. In March, China's trade deficit was 884 million US dollars, and the appreciation of the renminbi had some pressure on exports. In March, the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar reached 0.2%, and this year the RMB appreciation against the US dollar has risen by 0.49%.

Ding Zhijie, Dean of the school of finance at the University of foreign trade and economics, also said that the uncertainty of foreign demand made the support of trade to the RMB exchange rate seem less solid.

　 Small knowledge

what is exchange rate "Limit"

According to the central bank's regulation, the floating rate of RMB against the US dollar is 1%. The volatility of the foreign exchange market is similar to that of the stock market. Yesterday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was US $1 to 6.2548 yuan, for example, according to the fluctuation range of 1%, the fluctuation of the central parity price was 6.1923 to 6.3173 on that day.

If the market price hits 6.1923, it means that the renminbi will appreciate against the US dollar to the "limit" position. If the price hits 6.3173, it means that the renminbi will depreciate to the "limit" position against the US dollar.