The Impact Of The Continued Appreciation Of The RMB Against The US Dollar On China'S Economic Market

< p > "has the renminbi appreciated against the US dollar again?" since the end of March, Mr. Lin, a foreign exchange trader in a joint stock bank, has encountered such confusion.

The continued appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has gradually changed the market expectations.

Yesterday, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.2342, an increase of 66 basis points over the previous trading day, the first breakthrough in the 6.24 pass to set a new record for the exchange rate, and the spot market again touched on the trading limit. This is the second time this year's RMB to us dollar exchange rate touched "limit".

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< p > < strong > over the past 4 trading days, one day, one high, < /strong > < /p >

< p > in the past 4 trading days, the RMB appreciation of the "a" href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" dollar exchange rate < /a > has been increasing at a new high speed. If viewed from April, the RMB exchange rate has reached a new high of 7 times, showing the most intense trend this year.

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< p > the last time the RMB exchange rate reached a record high against the US dollar, it was also traced back to the end of last year. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar had been trading on 20 trading days.

Since then, the renminbi has maintained a relatively stable trend against the US dollar.

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< p > over the past 4 trading days, the "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "RMB" has appreciated 236 basis points against the US dollar exchange rate /a, with an appreciation of 0.3%.

Over the past 4 months, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by 513 basis points. This means that in the past 4 days, it has surpassed the appreciation rate in the past few months this year, and has exceeded the appreciation level of last year. In 2012, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar was only 0.23%.

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< p > the continuous rise of the middle price has driven the enthusiasm of the trading market to make more RMB.

Yesterday, the spot market for RMB against the dollar also hit a new high for fourth consecutive days, climbing to 6.1723, with a tight 6.1719 position and 0.99% full day.

Prior to April 10th, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar had its first trading limit this year.

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< p > < strong > trading market will further limit up to < /strong > /p >

< p > facing the most ferocious appreciation of the RMB exchange rate this year, the market's expectation of RMB appreciation has gradually increased, but it is considered that there are variables in the future. Foreign exchange traders are still relatively cautious when they buy the renminbi to throw dollars.

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The intermediate price of the RMB p to the US dollar is the comprehensive set by the central bank according to the quotations of the market makers. Its low rise reflects the attitude of the regulators to the current RMB exchange rate to a certain extent.

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Mr. P, a foreign exchange trader, said earlier this year there was a fierce market price appreciation. But because the central bank's central parity did not give a clear signal, everyone was cautious.

In the past half a month, the central bank has significantly accelerated the pace of appreciation of the central parity of RMB against the US dollar, giving the trading market a clear signal that the central bank has been happy to see the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar during the recent period.

But Mr. Lin believes that from a fundamental point of view, it is impossible for the renminbi to reappear in the 2005 -2008, and the uncertainty will increase in the future.

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< p > yesterday, the appreciation of RMB against Japanese yen was slightly recuperation, the intermediate price was 815 basis points callback, but since April, the total appreciation has risen to 4.4%.

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< p > < strong > experts believe that the subsequent appreciation of the space is limited < /strong > < /p >

How long will the RMB P rally last? What is the future trend? At present, experts generally believe that at present, the RMB has reached a level of equilibrium. In the future, the domestic and international economic development has certain uncertainties. The RMB exchange rate can not be strong and sustained appreciation, and there may be a reverse fluctuation.

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< p > the director of the Research Institute of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of social sciences has just said that from the domestic perspective, under the background of economic pformation and restructuring, the uncertainty of economic development has increased. From the outside, Japan has continued to implement the loose monetary policy, and has made the Japanese yen depreciated.

Such external environment poses a challenge to China's foreign trade. Therefore, the continued appreciation of RMB is not in line with China's economic interests.

On the whole, the renminbi will not be able to appreciate significantly in the long run, and there is a possibility of going downwards, even if the rise is moderate.

The renminbi will maintain a two-way fluctuating and flexible operation pattern.

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< p > Tan Yaling, director of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute (micro-blog), said that from the perspective of China's economic fundamentals, it does not support the current strength of the renminbi. It is artificially pushing up the price of the renminbi. The future RMB exchange rate should be determined by looking at its basic economic plane and enterprise needs. At present, the RMB does not have the space and conditions for appreciation.

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< p > < strong > cause < /strong > < /p >

< p > < strong > the influx of "hot money" leads to an appreciation of < /strong > /p >

What is the reason for the continuous appreciation? Cross border capital inflow is the main factor in the appreciation of the RMB P.

Data show that in February, the newly increased foreign exchange reserves of the financial institutions were 295 billion 400 million, though they fell sharply compared with January, but they continued to increase for three consecutive months. The sum of new foreign exchange holdings in the first two months of this year is nearly trillion.

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< p > Ceng Gang, director of the Research Institute of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that at present, the United States has continued to implement monetary easing policy. The whole economy has recovered but is very weak.

Comparatively speaking, although China's economy has problems, its prospects for investors are still optimistic, which is an important reason for the recent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

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Ding Zhijie, President of the school of finance, P, believes that developed economies have implemented quantitative easing in succession, resulting in global liquidity and capital reflow, including the emerging market countries, including China. The pressure of capital inflow has increased sharply, pushing the appreciation of the RMB forward. "Micro-blog"

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A direct inducement to the appreciation of the renminbi is the recent announcement of Japan's quantitative easing monetary policy (P).

The yuan appreciated by more than 20% in the half year, and has appreciated 4.4% since April.

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< p > Ding Zhijie said that the Japanese yen's induced depreciation is also the driving factor for the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

After Andouble's successful election, he actively promoted the depreciation of the yen and implemented quantitative easing monetary policy to help Japan get rid of deflation and recession.

Because there is a certain stable relationship between the currencies of East Asian countries and the US dollar, the depreciation of the yen has led to a collective appreciation of East Asian currencies, including the renminbi.

At present, the appreciation of RMB is expected to be magnified.

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Li Zhiqiang, principal analyst of financial markets of Minsheng Bank, said that the recent depreciation of the yen led to stronger desire for international capital to find safer currencies. The increase in international market liquidity and the rebound in the 4 quarter of the Chinese economy accelerated the appreciation of the current p.

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< p > < strong > > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > export market < /a > from the us to Taiwan < /strong > /p >

< p > < strong > Narrator: Mr. Wang (head of a trading company) < /strong > /p >

< p > yesterday, Mr. Wang, the head of a trading company, said that because of the obvious appreciation of the RMB recently, the export of its products to the us almost stagnated. He shifted the export market to Taiwan and other regions to deal with the influence of the appreciation of the exchange rate.

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< p > Mr. Wang's export plastic products.

He told reporters that when he signed a contract with American customers, he generally chose to lock in the exchange rate in order to minimize the impact of exchange rate fluctuations.

Within the range of 5% of the exchange rate fluctuation, it will be borne by him; if more than 5%, the price will be re priced.

But after the Spring Festival this year, because of the appreciation of the renminbi, the customers thought that his quotation was too high, and they imported to Vietnam and other countries, resulting in a sharp reduction in his orders.

Because of the rise in the RMB exchange rate, Mr. Wang's annual losses account for 3%-5% of sales.

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At present, Mr. Wang's company has shifted its focus to Taiwan because Taiwan and the mainland have opened renminbi settlement business without worrying about the impact of the depreciation of the US dollar.

"If the renminbi continues to appreciate, we may totally abandon the US market," he said.

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< p > although the RMB exchange rate rise is not conducive to export enterprises, but official figures show that in March this year, the export growth rate was 10% year-on-year, and maintained two digit growth.

Some analysts believe that China's trade data may be exaggerated, and exporters make false reports on exports so as to bring foreign funds to domestic speculation or to obtain more export tax rebates.

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< p > < strong > prices are facing upward pressure < /strong > < /p >

A direct result of the appreciation of RMB P is that the export oriented enterprises are under increasing pressure of foreign exchange depreciation. At the same time, the pressure of hot money inflow aggravates the domestic price level and asset prices, and increases the difficulty of policy adjustment.

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< p > there is an analysis that if RMB appreciation is trend, it will aggravate capital inflow and have a relatively important impact on currency issue and asset price.

Capital inflows will aggravate the upward pressure on prices. Although the central bank can hedge against repurchase, it can not completely wipe out the issue of currency.

For macro-control, it will cause tighter market expectations, but in fact the monetary environment is relatively loose.

This is beneficial to the stabilization and recovery of the stock market, but if the stock market falls back to its normal value, capital inflow will prolong or even interrupt the regression process of the capital market.

The report issued by the State Administration of foreign exchange has warned that a variety of factors will exacerbate the fluctuation of cross border capital flows in China, or even exclude the phased capital outflow.

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< p > in addition, the real estate prices under control may also be affected.

The the Great Wall securities research report said that the real estate market, as the natural medium of conversion into RMB assets after foreign capital enters the Chinese market, has become the object of foreign investment, and foreign capital enjoys double income by holding real estate to enjoy the rise of house prices and the rise of the exchange rate.

Foreign investment in real estate, even if the price does not rise, the RMB exchange rate rise can also achieve the purpose of capital appreciation.

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