Analysis Of Textile Futures Market In April 25Th

Macro focus

The US Department of Commerce announced that durable goods orders fell 5.7% in March. According to a survey by Bloomberg, the average forecast of economists is 2.8% down. Durable goods orders increased by 5.6% in February (revised value, initial value increased by 5.7%). (durable goods orders in March hit the biggest monthly decline in seven months, and the key indicators of the enterprise expenditure plan also rose only moderately, further indicating a slowdown in factory activity. )

The Portuguese Minister of economic affairs, lvaro Santos Pereira, said the government would reduce corporate tax rates, provide preferential conditions to attract foreign investment, reform administrative structure and promote investment, and provide financing for attractive SMEs. Following Portugal, Spain will slow down the pace of fiscal tightening. Spain will announce a series of new policies on pension, employment market, service sector and financial management this Friday. At present, more and more European, American and IMF officials believe that tightening policy alone is not enough to solve the European debt crisis. Portugal's recession has entered third years, with unemployment reaching a record 17%. Mr. Pereira said the stimulus package will help Portugal boost the economy, which is expected to grow to 2% by 2020. Exports are expected to account for 50% of GPD in 2020 and 37% at present. The Spanish government hopes that reform measures will enhance investor confidence in the Spanish economy. Some government officials believe that structural reform will give Spain more room for maneuver in its budget deficit target. )

After Japan, Australia has become another developed country directly investing in China's sovereign debt. The Australian Central Bank (Australian Federal Reserve) plans to invest 5% of its foreign exchange assets in the purchase of Chinese sovereign bonds, which is Australia's first direct investment in Asian sovereign debt markets outside Japan. After 10 days of direct exchange between the Australian dollar and the renminbi, the financial cooperation between China and Australia deepened. After becoming the second largest economy in the world, China accounts for nearly 1/3 of Australia's exports and is also a huge importer of iron ore and coal in Australia. Australia's investment in China's bonds is a new move for China to open the offshore market. China is trying to promote the internationalization of RMB by setting up new investment channels. )

　 cotton

Overnight ICE Stage cotton The main contract in July dropped 2.15 cents to 82.95 cents / pound. The price of the technology is weak, but it is facing a rebound demand in the short term. Zhengmian 1309 contract closed on Wednesday and closed at 19875 points, down 25 points from the previous trading day. The top twenty bulls reduced their positions from 787 to 61357, shorting their positions from 77 to 46740, and in general, multi party strength was slightly dominant. Trading volume dropped sharply compared with the day before yesterday, MACD index green pillar extended, KD index downward divergence, technology graphics view period price is weak. Cotton warehouse receipt information: cotton warehouse receipts totaled 51 (of which 5 were Xinjiang cotton), 0 less than the previous day. 92 effective forecasts. Fundamentals: domestic cotton CC Index 328 price index: 19369 yuan / ton (-1), imported cotton FC Index M price index: 94.36 cents / pound (-0.94), 1% tariff 15090 yuan / ton, discount sliding quasi tax to 15813 yuan / ton, and cotton price difference to -3556 yuan / ton.

The domestic cotton market remained stable, and the market gradually returned to market guidelines after the lack of policy boost. Since the launch of new cotton, the enthusiasm of textile enterprises has been enhanced, but more textile enterprises are only competing. Reserve cotton The purpose is to get quotas, because the cotton reserves will continue until July. Spin In the off-season, the textile enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishment is generally low. Under the dual track system, the space for the increase of cotton prices will be limited. Domestic and international economic weakness is difficult to stimulate textile consumption demand. High domestic inventories will restrain cotton prices up for a long time.

In April 24th, the number of cotton reserves put into operation was 93656.3995 tons, and the actual turnover was 19728.4665 tons, with a turnover ratio of 21.06%, which was 2.13 percentage points lower than that of the previous trading day. Among them, 10450.4589 tons of cotton were traded in 2011, and 9278.0076 tons of cotton in 2012 years. The average daily turnover reserve cotton was 3.39, which was 0.06 higher than the previous trading day, with an average length of 28.09, a decrease of 0.02 compared with the previous trading day, a weighted transaction price of 18930 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, a turnover of 328 yuan, 19136 yuan / ton (weight), a decrease of 42 yuan / ton compared with the previous transaction, and a 233 yuan / ton lower than that of the CC Index 328 price. As of April 24th, the total amount of the total listing was 4606814.8683 tons, with a total turnover of 1249685.4202 tons, with a turnover ratio of 27.13%. Operational recommendations: CF1309 empty single to continue to hold, short positions are mainly short rebate, the price breaks through 20200 yuan / ton empty single to leave the field to wait and see.