Inventory Analysis Of International Cotton Futures In April

From the recent ICE Stage cotton 1305 according to the track of the contract, the consolidation rate rose to the highest price of 89.22 cents / pound on the 3 day after the beginning of the month. From 24 to 24, the cumulative decline in the 15 days from 8.12 to 24 was 15.

The first day of April was not satisfactory. manufacturing industry Data and the external grain market generally fell sharply, and some traders made profits to form a pressure on the market. The ICE cotton contracts ended in a cloudy fall, and the ICE cotton 1305 contract in the near future was at its lowest level since March 25th. In the following 2 and 3 days, due to the publication of the ICAC report, the market was worried about the supply and demand of cotton outside China; in terms of economy, Cyprus got more time in achieving the budget, and the eurozone manufacturing activity data were also better than expected. At the same time, the US dollar fell, the US stocks and the external commodity markets generally rose, and many good benefits jointly supported the cotton futures, pushing the ICE cotton rebounded comprehensively, and rose for two consecutive days, and rose to the highest price 89.22 cents / LB on 3 th this month. At the same time, the market volume has also been enlarged compared with the previous few days.

The declining trend from 4 to 24 is mainly due to the continued weakness of the economy (such as poor employment data in the US) (the number of non farm payrolls increased by 88000 in March), which is lower than the 200000 expected in the market. "And the pressure of demand decreases, and the stock market and the external commodity market generally fall sharply (such as 15 days of external precious metals and crude oil futures) (CRB index recorded the largest single day decline in December 2011. Gold hit the largest two day decline in 1983. Brent crude hit the lowest in July, and the US stock market expanded. The US Boston serial bombing also has a strong impact on the financial market. Other grain markets are also falling. The economic data released by China are weaker than expected. According to the data released by China's National Bureau of statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter increased by 7.7% over the same period last year, which is not only lower than that of the same period last year, but also lower than that in the four quarter of 2012, that is, year-on-year and annulus growth rates were all down. The decline in export data in March was also disappointing. And China's manufacturing industry data weak [23 HSBC announced that in April, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers preview index fell to 50.5 (March final value of 51.6). In April, the initial value of the new export orders sub index also slipped, from the last month's final value 50.5 to 48.6 six month low, for the first time in four months down to the ups and downs line, the export situation is still grim. The market worried that China's economic growth slowed down, which aggravated the worries of the global economy. In addition, the recent ICE cotton 1305 contract entered the first delivery notice on the 24 day, and investors continued to settle their positions before the expiry of the May contract, which was also a pressure on the market, resulting in a lot of negative pressure on ICE cotton. Although there was also a boost to the formation of the cotton market in China, the news of the United States was good news (the Fed's latest policy meeting stressed the need to continue to maintain a loose monetary policy to support the economy) and helped boost the stock market and the overall rise in the commodity market. But after all, pressure is greater than thrust. ICE cotton is still falling in a wide range of consolidation (such as 4 days -9 days "four consecutive Yin"), the recent ICE phase 1305 cotton contract has dropped 4.58 cents / pound, down 5.13%. ) But the fall in prices makes market transactions relatively active.

25 days to the end of the month, "four Lian Yang" warped up (such as the recent ICE cotton 1305 contract has risen 4.43 cents / pound, or 5.46%; the main ICE cotton 1307 contract has risen 4.52 cents / pound, or 5.45%. And the two contract ended at the end of the first day of the first 3 days since the biggest single day gain of 193 points, 173 points. It is the longest "Lian Yang" rally since ICE cotton has been in the middle of 3 months. This is mainly due to the good export weekly data of US cotton in April 12th, -18. The US signed net exports of 53910 tons of Upland Cotton (13% more than the previous week, 46% higher than the average of nearly four weeks), 76204 tons of shipment (15% less than the previous week, 2% less than the average of nearly four weeks), and China signed net 40460 tons of land cotton and 38601 tons of shipment this week. The pull of the US dollar and the weakening of the US dollar and the general rise of the external commodity market have supported the market formation. At the same time, after a big drop in the first two trading days, a small amount of buying and selling has been brought into the market, coupled with a slight rebound in cotton technology.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Cotton futures quotations Cotton prices slumped from 94 cents a pound in March 15th, driven by speculative buying. Although the market rose sharply at the end of 4 consecutive four trading days, it is still difficult to change the trend of overall weakness in April.

Statistics for the whole month of April: New York cotton stage The 1305 contract has fallen sharply by 2.93 cents / pound, or 3.31%, at 85.53 cents / pound at the end of the month. The international cotton price index CotlookA (FE) accumulated a median decline of 1.60 cents / pound, a decrease of 1.69%, at the end of the month at 93.20 cents / pound. China's cotton import price index FCIndexM has fallen sharply by 3.75 cents / pound, down 3.83%, running at 94.20 cents / pound at the end of the month. At the end of April, China's cotton import price index FCIndexM was still higher than the recent ICE cotton 1305 contract and the international cotton price index CotlookA (FE) 8.67 cents / pound, 1 cents / pound.