Behind The Beautiful Foreign Trade Data: RMB Appreciation Leads To Hot Money Entry Arbitrage

April, China Foreign trade data Still follow the trend of the first quarter, only from the data, it is very beautiful.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday, exports grew by 14.7% in April, and imports increased by 16.8%, significantly exceeding market expectations, with a surplus of $18 billion 160 million in that month.

Many analysts told reporters that in April, exports were good except that Chinese goods were more competitive internationally. The low export data base in April last year and the increasing number of working days in April this year are one reason.

　 Port throughput is far lower. Trade Frontal increase

Although the above mentioned reasons can support the stronger foreign trade data in April, most researchers think the reason is not enough. There is a certain deviation between the foreign trade data and the actual cargo flow, and the hot money can not be excluded from arbitrage through trade.

The biggest doubt is that there is a big gap between the foreign trade data from the General Administration of customs and the volume of cargo handled by the Ministry of communications in the main import and export ports. Although the port throughput data for April haven't been released yet, from the first quarter data, this gap has already been formed. According to the data of the Ministry of transport, in March, the cargo throughput of the above scale port foreign trade reached 2.72 billion tons, up by 7.3% compared with the same period last year, and the container throughput was 15 million 290 thousand and 300 TEUs, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year. And customs statistics March data, import and export year-on-year growth rate reached 12.1%.

The Australian new bank reported that the huff and puff data of major ports in China had declined significantly, and the new export orders in the purchasing managers' index also declined significantly, which contrasts sharply with the strong trade data.

In fact, the foreign trade data in March were questioned by the industry. Although the total value of Hongkong's exports to the total export value has dropped from 26.55% historical super highs in March to 21.10% in April, the growth rate of Hongkong's exports has dropped from 92.9% in March to 57.08% in April. But Wang Yuwen still said that this ratio far exceeds the historical average of 15%-17%. Under the background of the weak recovery of the terminal demand of the developed economies such as the US, Japan and Europe, the mainland's demand for transshipment trade in the Hongkong region in China is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term.

　 　 RMB appreciation Inward arbitrage for hot money

Why is there such a big drop in port throughput and the increase in foreign trade volume?

Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that based on the increasing demand for hedge risk, many funds needed to find places with higher returns, such as emerging markets like China. And "borrowing" trade is one of its ways. These capital come in through high price, and export is also involved in tax rebate. That's why export data is inflated.

Those who do not want to be celebrities say that the most direct way for hot money to flow into China is to incorrectly import prices to export enterprises, and to choose small commodities, such as precious metals and integrated circuits, which are easy to transport and store low cost, so that large amounts of foreign currencies are imported into China.

The bank reported that the continued unilateral appreciation of the RMB real effective exchange rate has also strengthened the adaptive expectation of "hot money inflow - appreciation of the renminbi - hot money inflow" in the market to a certain extent. Yesterday, the US dollar reported a sharp appreciation of 6.1980 yuan to the central parity of RMB, 103 basis points, and broke through the 6.2 pass for the first time.

At present, this phenomenon has attracted the attention of regulators. A policy issued by the State Administration of foreign exchange has made it clear that enterprises that do not match the flow of capital and goods or have large inflows require that they explain the situation within 10 working days. If an enterprise fails to explain the situation in time or fails to provide proof materials and make reasonable explanations, the foreign exchange bureau will, in accordance with the relevant regulations, list it as a category B enterprise and carry out strict supervision.

Obviously, inflow of hot money through trade in goods will increase China's surplus, and then push up the pressure of RMB appreciation, which is not conducive to the interests of Chinese exporters or to the normal level of RMB currency. The foreign trade experts believe that if the new deal of the safe is effective, China's exports will return to the "real level" of about 10% after May.