China'S Home Textile Enterprises Terminal Consumption Is Relatively Low, The Two Quarter Sales Situation Remains To Be Seen.

< p > China's home textile market has trillions of market capacity, more than 20000 home textile enterprises.

At present, the market of home textiles is dominated by low and medium end products, and the market share of leading enterprises is dominated by high-end products.

In 2012, the operating income of Meng Jie home textile, fuanna and Luo Lai textile was 1 billion 200 million yuan, 1 billion 777 million yuan and 2 billion 725 million yuan respectively, and three business income plus accounted for only a small part of China's home textile market share.

Therefore, the market space of high-end brands can be improved, but at the same time, they are faced with a series of problems, such as the change of consumption concept and the change of consumption habits.

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< p > < strong > sales situation: terminal consumption is relatively low. Sales in the two quarter remain to be observed < /strong > < /p >

< p > in the first quarter of this year, the company's revenue grew by 23.57% on the basis of a relatively low base period in 2012.

In April, revenue fell 10% in the same period last year, and sales in the first half of May were not ideal.

Because of the relatively weak terminal consumption this year, sales in the first half of the year need to continue to be observed.

The second half of this year will usher in the peak of marriage. The 7-8 month's big promotion may lead to the rise of sales.

And the overall growth of the whole year, we believe that the overall progress of the consumer environment is the most important factor in determining the performance improvement this year.

The company plans to increase its sales revenue by 15% over the same period in 2013, and its net profit increased by 20% over the same period last year.

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< p > strong > channel strength: 300 new stores are expected to be added this year, online sales will be a useful supplement under the line < /strong > < /p >

< p > last year, the company opened 302 new stores, but because of the low consumption and terminal sales pressure, it did not achieve a good effect of increasing revenue. Meanwhile, the increase in sales cost resulted in a sharp decline in net profit.

This year, the company will still maintain a faster expansion rate when the consumption recovery is uncertain. It is expected that about 300 stores will be added, and corresponding measures must be taken to strictly control the cost.

At present, the company's direct operation and affiliate share is about 1:3.

Most of the direct businesses are shopping malls, and the consumption of shopping malls has a great impact on the camp.

Last year, the company's electricity supplier income exceeded 50 million yuan, accounting for 4% of the total sales revenue.

In the next 2-3 years, the company will continue to develop e-commerce, with the goal of generating 10-15% of total revenue.

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< p > strong > brand power: last year, Meng Jie baby developed rapidly, and the two new brands were in the incubation period < /strong > < /p >

Last year, in the past three brands, "Meng Jie", "sleep" and "Meng Jie baby", only "Meng Jie baby" business income has achieved positive growth (up by 5.91% over the same period). P

The development of new brand "plain aesthetics" and "seeking" is relatively general. The design style of "solid aesthetics" is relatively plain and elegant. This year, the company will adjust the brand's design style and introduce some bright colors to attract a wider range of consumers.

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< p > > strong > 2013 autumn and winter order: orders are full and dealers' confidence is enhanced. < /strong > < /p >

"P >" just concluded "autumn and winter 2013 orders will be satisfactory: dealers have responded well to the new product design, and the order amount exceeds the company's estimated target of 600 million yuan.

This reflects the increased confidence of dealers.

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< p > < strong > equity incentive: at present is still in the process of brewing, the fastest first half of the year promulgated < /strong > < /p >.

< p > April 11th, the company issued a suggestive notice of equity incentive.

At present, the company's equity incentive plan is still in the process of deliberation, and the problems such as the scope and motivation of the incentive personnel still need to be studied and determined.

The equity incentive plan is expected to be released in the first half of this year.

Because of equity incentive, the possibility of large shareholders' reduction is not large.

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< p > < strong > profit forecast and investment rating < /strong > /p >

< p > we calculate that EPS is divided into 0.44/0.55/0.62 yuan in 2013-2015 years, and PE in current share price is 30.85/24.62/21.85 times.

We believe that the company's performance risk has been fully released last year, and is expected to continue to improve in the latter part of the year to maintain the company's "overweight" rating.

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< p > < strong > risk warning < /strong > < /p >

< p > 1) economic growth slows down and restraining consumption demand; < /p >

< p > 2) sales cost control is lower than expected; < /p >

< p > 3) the ability of management and management is lagging behind the competitors.

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