Foreign Trade Data Plunged Suddenly In May, How Will The Overall Trend Of Foreign Trade Be In The Future?

< p > May, the year-on-year growth rate of foreign trade imports and exports dropped sharply. There are both reasons for the rapid decline of trade between Mainland and Hongkong, which is basically restrained by Hong Kong arbitrage, < a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > trade < /a >, and are also affected by many factors such as domestic economic slowdown, low external demand, high operating costs, rising RMB effective exchange rate and deterioration of trade environment.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in June 8th, the total value of China's imports and exports in May was 345 billion 110 million US dollars, up 0.4% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports amounted to 182 billion 770 million US dollars, an increase of 1%; imports of US $162 billion 340 million, a decrease of 0.3%, and a trade surplus of US $20 billion 430 million.

The sudden plunge of foreign trade data in May shows that China's foreign trade situation is not optimistic.

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< p > according to customs statistics, from January to May, the total value of China's imports and exports was US $1 trillion and 676 billion 250 million, an increase of 10.9% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports amounted to 878 billion 560 million US dollars, an increase of 13.5%; imports of US $797 billion 690 million, an increase of 8.2%; and a trade surplus of US $80 billion 870 million.

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Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman for the General Administration of customs, said that in May, the growth rate of foreign trade imports and exports dropped sharply. On the one hand, the arbitrage trade in Hongkong was basically curbed, and the trade between the mainland and the P fell rapidly. On the other hand, it was affected by many factors such as the domestic economic slowdown, the external demand downturn, the high operating costs of enterprises, the rise of the effective exchange rate of RMB, and the deterioration of the trade environment.

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Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of China's foreign trade has been higher than that of the general expectation, especially in some parts of the country. P has seen a rapid growth.

The data show that China's exports increased by 17.4% in the first 4 months of this year, while the gross domestic trade in Hong Kong has increased by 66% over the same period, far higher than the bilateral trade performance between China and other major trading partners.

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< p > the "high" of foreign trade data is inconsistent with the industry's expectations and the general feelings of the enterprises, and also does not match with the statistics of some trading partners. This has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life.

Since April, relevant departments such as the General Administration of customs, people's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange began to investigate the situation, and quickly introduced a series of measures to effectively curb the influx of "hot money" and the arbitrage trade in Hong Kong under the background of RMB appreciation.

Customs data show that in the first 5 months, the total value of bilateral trade between the mainland and Hongkong amounted to US $179 billion 910 million, an increase of 52%, which is 14 percentage points lower than that in the previous 66% in April.

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What is the overall trend of the future foreign trade after the extrusion of < p > < strong > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp >" foreign trade data < /a > "water"?

< p > "the whole is expected to be slightly better than last year, but the future is still full of uncertainties."

Li Jian, director of the Foreign Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that, from the external demand, although the risk of further downturns in the developed economies has eased, the signs of economic recovery are not strong.

Some emerging market currencies are passive Appreciation under quantitative easing policy. Economic development is also facing difficulties, and external demand is hard to sustain growth.

From the point of view of imports, domestic economic growth momentum is insufficient and domestic demand is still weak.

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< p > previously, the report on China's foreign trade situation (spring 2013) released by the Ministry of Commerce shows that the constraints of China's foreign trade development are complex, and the challenges and pressures remain great this year.

If the external environment does not change significantly, import and export will continue to grow steadily in 2013. The growth rate is expected to be slightly higher than the previous year, but the possibility of a sharp rise is unlikely.

The report points out that the problems of foreign trade enterprises, especially small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises in 2013, are still outstanding.

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< p > it is reported that since April, the rise of exchange rate cost has further increased the difficulties faced by the current "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as "foreign trade enterprise" /a ".

The sustained and rapid appreciation of the RMB, and the rising cost of labor, land and social security, and the phenomenon that foreign trade enterprises are afraid to pick up is very conspicuous.

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Zhao Xijun, vice president of the school of Finance and finance, Renmin University of China, said that China's foreign trade development needs to change its traditional thinking of relying on low cost, low added value and high growth rate, speeding up the pace of structural adjustment of foreign trade, strengthening product innovation and upgrading technology, and continuously enhancing the ability and advantages of foreign trade enterprises to participate in international competition. P

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