Emerging Market Output Is Expected To Decline Slightly, Inventories Continue To Rise.

At the 2013 China International Cotton Conference held recently in Qingdao, cotton from different countries Spin Practitioners gathered together to analyze and forecast the global cotton and textile situation. What is the growth of the global cotton industry in the new cotton year? What is the demand for cotton products in the European and American terminal consumption market, which has not yet been completely free from the financial crisis? These problems will not only affect the cotton price trend of the new season and the sale of cotton textile products, but also will affect the import procurement plan of cotton spinning enterprises in China.

　 Production is expected to decline slightly, inventories continue to rise.

At this session, all parties concerned were concerned about cotton production in the new year. According to the prediction of the US Department of agriculture (from August 1st to July 31st, next year's international cotton year), the global and US cotton market will still be affected by uncertainties in climate, production and demand in 2013/2014. The 2013/2014 cotton planting area is estimated to be 34 million hectares, a decrease of 1% (261 thousand hectares) compared with the previous year. The yield is expected to be reduced to 753 kg / ha. Although the output of India and Brazil has increased, considering the expected decline in cotton production in the United States and China, the global cotton output is 117 million 800 thousand packs this year, a decrease of 3% over the previous year.

The expected decline in cotton production has not removed the industry's worries about inventory growth. From the perspective of global cotton stocks, the market situation is obviously oversupply. The relevant statistical forecasts show that in 2011/2012, the world's cotton stocks increased by 5 million 600 thousand tons; in 2012/2013, the global cotton stocks may increase by about 3000000 tons; in 2013/2014, it will also increase by about 1 million 700 thousand tons. In the cotton season, global cotton consumption has increased by less than 200 thousand tons. From this point of view, the world's cotton production has been surplus.

Ai Lunbao, chief executive of Cotton Corp, said that in the world's cotton supply and demand balance, 2011/2012 global end inventory has increased to 92 million 700 thousand packs, reaching the highest level in history, and is close to annual consumption. This inventory is obviously too high for the entire cotton industry, and will lead cotton farmers and cotton spinning enterprises to predict the next cotton price trend.

　　 Drought and monsoon influence the main cotton production

According to the forecast of cotton output in the new year, Ray Butler, editor in chief of British trail company, said: "the output of cotton is closely related to the climate and cotton growers' willingness to grow. It is estimated that the output of cotton in the United States has declined, and the output of cotton in India has increased slightly. Brazil's cotton production is expected to rebound sharply as a result of the delayed cotton growing period.

As the third largest cotton producing country in the world, the US cotton output in 2013/2014 is expected to reach 3 million tons, down 19% from the previous year. Carol Skelly, chairman of the cotton outlook Committee of the US Department of agriculture, pointed out that the decline in US cotton production is mainly due to two reasons: first, the price of all alternative crops is relatively high, which will reduce the production area of cotton production; the second is the continuous drought in the main planting areas of the southwestern United States. The US Department of agriculture's forecast in May showed that if the drought continues, the willingness of cotton growers in the United States to continue to grow cotton will continue to decline, which will lead to a 10% decrease in cotton planting area in the new year.

Unlike the United States, cotton farmers in India grow enthusiastically because of the considerable benefits of planting cotton. If the seasonal rainfall is normal, the cotton production in India is expected to reach 27 million packs in 2013/2014, 2% higher than that in the previous year. Ray Butler said: "India has started planting genetically modified cotton, but its share is relatively small, so its impact on the overall cotton yield is limited. However, if India wants to continue to expand its cotton production, its industrial technology and crop management system need to be improved.

What is particularly worth mentioning is that the cotton market in Brazil, which is located in the southern hemisphere, is relatively delayed in planting time, which is conducive to obtaining the information of supply and demand in the cotton market and helping to make necessary adjustments to the planting decisions, reduce risks and maximize profits. Ray Butler predicts that cotton harvest area in Brazil will be close to 1 million 100 thousand hectares in 2013/2014, an increase of 22% over the previous year, and the output will also rise.

　 Emerging markets will lift cotton consumption

In addition to output and inventory, the cotton industry's attention to the trend of terminal consumption is also more concerned. With the expected increase in economic recovery, the new year's cotton consumption and its positive impact on inventory consumption are highly regarded. According to Carol Skelly, chairman of the cotton outlook Committee of the US Department of agriculture, the amount of cotton used by American consumers has shown a downward trend in the past few years. In 2012, cotton consumption per capita was only 11.7 kilograms. The main reason for this phenomenon was that man-made fiber products gradually replaced cotton products. But she believes that in the case of a better understanding of the fine characteristics of cotton products, the amount of cotton used by American consumers in 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 will gradually recover.

In the new year's cotton consumption, research institutions and business representatives generally expressed optimism on emerging markets such as India, Bangladesh and Vietnam. Chirag Lakhani, director of DML group, said India is the second largest cotton producer, consumer and exporter in the world. Thanks to the rapid development of the economy, India's textile industry continues to move upstream to the value chain. India's local demand for cotton was strong in 2012/213, and domestic consumption has increased by about 1700000 bales. If India's investment policy is further open, its cotton consumption is likely to catch up with the US in the next few years. Meanwhile, the consumption of cotton products in Bangladesh and Vietnam has also increased strongly. Ray Butler pointed out that due to the relatively low labor costs, the investment volume of these two countries has gradually increased, and its cotton spinning industry has been developing at a faster pace. Over the past 7 years, Vietnam's cotton consumption has increased by 1 times.

Cotton is a popular fiber variety. Recent research findings confirm this. According to the "lifestyle" survey conducted by Cotton Corp and the international cotton association of the United States, consumers are paying more and more attention to value. In Italy, though consumers buy clothing The quantity is decreasing, but the quality of clothing is improving. Clothing that can show grade is most popular with consumers. Participants pointed out that cotton should be resumed in clothing and home. Clothes & Accessories The position of the industry must create and reshape market demand, so that consumers, brands and retailers understand the value and importance of cotton and recover the lost market share.