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Start A Good Textile Industry Three Risk Lurking Must Be Vigilant

2013/7/7 12:39:00 23

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revenue increased by 13.2%, profit increased by 13.5%, sales profit margin increased to 4.5%, loss decreased by 1.6%...

In 2013, the a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile > /a > industry, although the first quarter started well, but the future prospects are still complicated. Among them, exports, cotton prices and high storage are still the most concentrated risks in the whole industry. The international competitive power is decreasing, and the cotton price difference may continue to widen.

China Textile Industry Federation predicts that in the first half of this year, the major economic indicators of textile enterprises above Designated Size will still maintain a steady growth. However, with the disappearance of low base and seasonal factors, the growth rate of textile exports will gradually decrease and remain at around 10%.

cotton price is no longer "Crazy" /p >

Since the beginning of this year, cotton spinning enterprises, which suffer from poor cotton prices for a long time, have been able to breathe for the time being p.

taking April as an example, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton price is between 3500~4000 yuan / ton, and the difference between cotton price inside and outside last year was as high as 6000 yuan / ton.

It is estimated that when the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is less than 2000 yuan / ton, enterprises can still hedge through technological progress and variety development. When the spread of cotton spreads to more than 4000 yuan / ton, it is very difficult to make up in other ways; if the cotton price difference is more than 5000 yuan / ton, the enterprise will soon face losses.

there is no doubt that the gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices has narrowed, which provides room for domestic cotton spinning enterprises to reduce costs and increase profits.

Related statistics show that in the first quarter, the cotton textile business income increased by 8.38% over the same period, and net profit increased by more than 49% over the same period last year, becoming the fastest growing sub industry in the textile manufacturing industry, and the gross profit margin increased from 13.46% last year to 14.05%.

In the past year, high inventory and Khmer price difference jointly suppressed domestic cotton spinning enterprises' loss across the board, operating income fell 2.68% year-on-year, and net profit fell by 34.67% year-on-year.

P, a leading cotton textile enterprise, whose export profits account for more than 80%, is the biggest beneficiary.

In the first quarter of this year, the operating income, operating profit and net profit of Lu Tai A increased by 14%, 74% and 67%, respectively. The net profit after deducting non recurring gains and losses increased by 77% over the same period.

In the first quarter, another cotton leading enterprise, Huafu color spinning, increased its operating income and net profit by 23% and 25% compared to the same period last year.

Less than p cotton price difference, also makes cotton spinning enterprises start and order situation is very good.

According to statistics, in the first quarter, the operating rate of large cotton textile enterprises exceeded 90%, and the 90% quarter of the surveyed enterprises in the two quarter was flat or increased, and 1/3 of the enterprises' cotton stocks exceeded 40 days.

despite the temporary calm, there is still a risk that the cotton price differential will continue to expand.

In the view of Wang Tiankai, President of China Textile Union, the different price formation mechanism is the main reason for the poor cotton price at home and abroad.

"International cotton prices depend on market supply and demand, while domestic cotton prices are supported by temporary quotas and import quotas."

> therefore, in the long run, we should speed up the reform of the cotton circulation system, improve the cotton macro regulation mechanism and realize the marketization of cotton prices both inside and outside the country.

It has been revealed that the national development and Reform Commission has initiated the reform process of China's cotton management policy and is making a timetable.

China Textile Federation also conducts research in major cotton producing areas. It will put forward policy appeals and measures to relevant departments in the light of cotton direct subsidy and cotton system reform, so as to promote the docking of domestic and foreign cotton prices.

when export competitiveness decreases, /p >

the statistics of China Textile Corporation show that the total export volume of Chinese textiles < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > reached US $82 billion 535 million this year, an increase of 16.24% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 15.17 percentage points over the same period last month in 1~4.

warmer external demand, low cardinal number and replenishment stock are the main driving force for the strong rebound of China's textile and clothing export.

Since the beginning of this year, the US economy has slowly recovered, and the EU economy has gradually left the bottom to form an upward turning point, while the growth of emerging economies has helped to revive external demand.

It is estimated that a large number of foreign retailers replenishment of inventory, driving our clothing, textiles, luggage and other 7 categories of labor-intensive products exports $97 billion, an increase of 21.8%.

the survey data of the Ministry of commerce also showed that the amount of export orders increased by nearly 40% of the enterprises surveyed in March, while the enterprises whose export orders fell only accounted for 21.2%, and for the first time since July 2012, the proportion was lower than 25%.

In March, the export confidence index reached 108.7 and returned to the border level.

In March, in the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, the new export orders index has jumped from 1 and 48.5 in February and 47.3 in February to 50.9.

large enterprises still play the leading role.

According to statistics from the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, the number of enterprises exporting more than US $100 million for three consecutive years accounted for only 0.2% of the total number of export enterprises in the country, but in the first quarter, the total export volume of these enterprises accounted for 10.5% of total exports, of which nearly 2/3 of enterprises achieved export growth.

but it is worrying that the decline of international competitiveness of China's textile and clothing is an indisputable fact.

Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Association, said that price is the main driving force for textile exports to maintain growth. China's share of the world's major markets is declining.

At present, China's share of the three major traditional markets in the US, EU and Japan has dropped from 65% to around 40%.

In the first quarter, China's share of exports to the EU was only 37.5%, down 1.04 percentage points from the same period last year, and the global share of Japan's exports was only 69.74%, a straight decline of 2.28 percentage points.

A large number of orders have been quickly eroded by Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia.

industry experts remind us that China's textile exports do not have the external conditions for sustained high growth in the near future, considering that the external demand has not improved significantly.

when apparel industry meets high inventory /p >

for apparel industry, high inventory is a topic that can not be carried away.

Statistics from the China National Business Information Center show that in the first quarter of this year, the number of retail sales of clothing for hundreds of major retail enterprises in the country increased by 10.7% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 4.5% over the previous year, which is the lowest growth rate in the same period since 2005.

According to another data, as of April 17th, the total inventory of 50 clothing listed companies, which had been published in 2012 annual report, totaled about 57 billion yuan, an increase of 3 billion 600 million yuan over 2011, an increase of 6.76% over the same period last year, of which 8 companies had more than 1 billion yuan in inventory.

At the same time, the stock items of the 50 textile and clothing listed companies are prepared to fall for a total of 1 billion 110 million yuan.

With the continued downturn in external demand and slowing domestic demand, such a huge inventory size is almost fatal for clothing companies.

inventory has become a major obstacle to the development of garment enterprises.

"High inventory not only causes difficulties in cash flow of garment enterprises, slows down the speed of product development and upgrading, but also engulf the profit margins of garment enterprises."

An industry expert said.

Under the high inventory of P, the fate of domestic clothing enterprises is very heavy.

According to statistics, in the first quarter, 34 domestic a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > brand clothing < /a > the total profit of listed companies reached 1 billion 688 million yuan, down 8.51% compared with the same period last year.

Among them, YOUNGOR realized net profit of only 256 million yuan, down 34.27% compared to the same period last year. The US dollar a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > dress < /a > achieved net profit of 126 million yuan, down 47% compared to the same period last year.

By contrast, the situation of the seven wolves is slightly optimistic. The company achieved 950 million yuan in operating income in the first quarter, and realized a net profit of 186 million yuan, up 7.17% over the same period last year.

tracing to the source, high inventory is just the representation of the current predicament in the textile and garment industry. Its root lies in the overcapacity of garment enterprises in the past few years and the lack of synchronous growth in market demand. Today's "scrimmage" is actually paying for the mistakes made in the past, and it is also the price that must be paid for the pformation of China's textile industry from extensive to meticulous.