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Why The Challenges Of China'S Foreign Trade Slowdown Still Exist?

2013/7/17 17:57:00 18

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coincided with the general turmoil in emerging market economies. The trade data released just now in China have cast a shadow on the international economic outlook: in June, the total value of China's imports and exports was 2 trillion yuan (321 billion 510 million US dollars), a 2% decline.

Of which, exports of 1 trillion and 90 billion yuan (equivalent to US $174 billion 320 million), a decrease of 3.1%; imports of 910 billion yuan (equivalent to 147 billion 190 million U.S. dollars), a decrease of 0.7%; trade surplus of 169 billion 340 million yuan (equivalent to 27 billion 130 million U. S. dollars), narrowed 14%.

from the June foreign trade data released by the General Administration of customs, the main reason for the decline in exports is the external macroeconomic environment, especially in the emerging market economies.

In terms of imports, one of the main reasons is the domestic economic slowdown; the two is export deceleration, so the demand for raw materials, energy and intermediate products needed for export production has also declined.

external environment pressure

we see that in the first half of this year, China's trade with the sovereign debt crisis lasted for 3.1% years, and the recovery of the US economy was much stronger, and the total trade between China and the United States increased by 5.6%.

The biggest risk is emerging market economies.

When I published the first two months' foreign trade data, I have already suggested that the beginning of good foreign trade reversing pressure is bigger. The main reason is that the accumulation of economic and social risks in emerging market economies has reached a level that can not be ignored. After the second half of this year and the next year, the risk of economic and social shocks in emerging market economies is relatively high. It is possible to repeat the failure of developing countries and the Soviet Union Eastern European group from 1970s to the 1980s debt crisis.

because the proportion of emerging markets in China's exports has been around half, and the growth rate is very fast, this potential risk pressure can not be underestimated.

One of the potential risk factors for this pition is the fall in primary commodity prices and the pition of monetary policy in developed countries such as the United States.

Because of the steady recovery of the US economy, the exit of quantitative easing policy is likely to occur in the coming year. The reversal of capital flows that may result in this may change China's import inflation pressure to a certain extent, and it will also have a greater impact on other macroeconomic stability than China's emerging market economies.

From the comprehensive debt crisis of the developing countries and the Soviet Union Eastern European Group in 1980s to the financial crisis of Mexico in 1994, we have witnessed the tightening of monetary policy of developed countries, especially the US, and how to push developing countries to the abyss of financial crisis.

In the last two months, this is basically the case.

Trade disputes (P) are also not a trivial matter.

In the first quarter of this year, 12 countries launched 22 Trade Relief surveys to China. At the same time, Thailand, India, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Malaysia and other developing countries participated in the trade relief survey in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the European Union's PV dual countermeasures against China and preparations for the double anti investigation of China's radio communication equipment and its components shocked the international market with its huge trade volume involved.

Under such a harsh external environment, China's total trade volume growth rate has dropped or even reduced, and the volume of trade in some industries has dropped sharply, which is inevitable.

At the same time, the decline of our foreign trade is also related to the reduction of global inflation pressure and the decline of foreign trade commodity prices, which is particularly prominent in the reduction of imports. P

From a global background, apart from the inflation rate rising in central and northeast Africa and Afghanistan and Pakistan due to the deep political turmoil and war quagmire of the "Arabia spring", the inflation pressure reduction in other major regions of the world has become a general trend. The main reason is that the consumer price index in 2012 has increased less than the annual increase in 2011. The year-end year-end increase in 2012 is lower than that in 2012. The first quarter of 2013 is lower than the end of 2012.

Reviewing the commodity price movements in US dollar trade in global goods trade, the average annual price increases of manufactured goods, oil and non fuel primary products were 0.2%, 9% and 0.1% respectively during 1995~2004. In 2012, they were -0.5%, 1% and -9.8% respectively. The International Monetary Fund estimated that the increase in 2013 was 1%, -2.3% and -0.9%.

under such a background, the average import prices of major raw materials such as crude oil, coal and iron ore fell in varying degrees in the first half of this year. The average import price of crude oil dropped by 7.6%, the average import price of soybeans increased by 9.2%, the average price of copper imports dropped by 3.4%, the average import price of iron ore dropped by 4.6%, and the average price of coal imports fell by 16.3%.

challenge still exists .

Trade data in the first half of the year P show that China's foreign trade is facing greater challenges. But we should also look at this issue from two aspects, because our central goal is to maintain and improve our position in the international economic system.

Therefore, in the period of economic prosperity, our goal is to pursue absolute high growth. In the depression period, the goal is to pursue relatively high growth, even if the absolute growth rate is not high or even down. As long as the growth rate is higher than that of other countries or the decline is smaller than that of other countries, our relative position is still rising.

distortion of trade data in cross border hot money flows is a complex problem. However, I do not think that hot money flow can have a lasting and significant impact on foreign trade data.

So far, cross-border capital flows (i.e. inflow and outflow of hot money) carried out by China through the import and export false reporting channels are mainly carried out by light textile enterprises through the arbitrage trade in Hongkong, especially the light textile enterprises in Guangdong.

In the first half of the year, the appreciation rate of RMB increased greatly, and the export of traditional labor intensive products was more affected than mechanical and electrical products.

Statistics show that in the first half of this year, China's < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile > /a > products, a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing > _blank > luggage and bags, less than 7 yuan, "shoes", "toys", "furniture", "plastic products" and so on, the labor intensive products exported to 210 billion 20 million categories, exports increased by 12.6%, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period.

Theoretically, the increase in hot money may be due to the larger composition. The risk of obvious stall in the coming months due to hot money escaping will be correspondingly greater. But in practice, the adjustment of China's light textile enterprises in recent years and the rise of competitiveness are a reality.

In the first half of the year, the increase in the export volume of traditional labour intensive products was not all done by arbitrage trade:

from the change of cost and profit rate index of Industrial Enterprises above designated size.

Chinese textile and apparel < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > shoes and hats < /a > the cost profit margins of Industrial Enterprises above designated size are still on the rise in general, rising from 4.25% in 2002 to 7.81% in 2011, which has increased by 83%, and finally surpassed the overall level of cost and profit margins of Industrial Enterprises above designated size.

In contrast, the cost profit margins of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in China's communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries almost always lingered at the level of 3%~4% during this period, and never reached the overall level of cost and profit margins of Industrial Enterprises above designated size. In 2011, this index was only equivalent to textile a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing shoes and hats < /a > 59% of manufacturing industry.

In the first 5 months of this year, the main business income of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 11.9% compared with the same period last year, and the total profit grew by 12.3% over the same period last year. The main business profit increased by 11.4% compared with the same period last year, while the three indexes of textile and textile clothing, < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > dress < /a > two industries all exceeded the national average level.

The three indicators of textile industry are 15.1%, 21.5% and 15.5% respectively, and three indexes of textile, clothing and apparel industry are 13.2%, 15.1% and 13.4% respectively.

Therefore, the growth of this export can not be attributed much to the arbitrage trade in Hong Kong.

At the same time, although the slowdown in exports will aggravate the pressure of economic slowdown, the price of imported primary products and so on will be good news for domestic downstream manufacturing industries and other industries. P

For example, coal, a few years ago, the profit margin of electricity and thermal production and supply industry is very low. In 2012, when China's coal imports surged, import prices fell sharply, and forced and exacerbated the decline of domestic coal prices, China's Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size realized significant growth in profits. The most prominent one was the growth of electricity and heat production and supply industry profits by 69.1%.

China's imports of coal and lignite were 2.8851 billion tons, an increase of 29.8% over the same period, and the import average price fell by 13.21% in dollar terms.

In the first 5 months of 2013, the electricity and heat production and supply of owners' business revenue was 2 trillion and 144 billion 620 million yuan, up 6.5% over the same period last year. The total profit was 125 billion 960 million yuan, up 89.1% over the same period last year. The main activity profit was 116 billion 330 million yuan, up 114.3% over the same period.

If there is not a large number of cheap coal imports to reduce costs, electricity and thermal production and supply industries and other industries can not achieve such a profit growth in the environment of rising economic uncertainty, the difficulties of steel and other industries will further increase.