Enterprises Should Focus On Adjusting The Structure, Changing The Way And Promoting Reform.
< p > China's economic examination results were officially released yesterday.
Data show that in the first half of this year, gross domestic product (GDP) was 248009 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 7.6% over the same period last year.
Among them, the first quarter grew by 7.7%, and the two quarter increased by 7.5%.
The industry believes that this data does not exceed the market expectations, which is mainly affected by the current world economic downturn, China's potential productivity decline and other factors.
In addition, there are various indications that today's Chinese economy is speeding up along the road of pformation, and structural adjustment has increasingly become the main keynote of economic development.
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Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of statistics, said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency on July 16th, that the general trend of China's economy has been falling gently since last year. Our country has entered a new stage of pformation and upgrading, that is, from the past high-speed growth to a new stage of higher speed growth. This is an inevitable rule and an objective reality of the potential growth rate decline brought about by the change of economic growth stage.
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< p > this can be clearly seen from the figures. The growth rate of GDP in the first quarter of this year was 7.7%, 7.9% in the fourth quarter of last year, and 7.4% in the three quarter of last year.
It is evident that the general trend is a moderate decline, Ma Jiantang pointed out.
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< p > Ma Jiantang said that the cause of China's economic downturn is the result of coexistence of various factors.
"There are long-term factors and short-term factors. There are external factors and internal factors. There are objective factors, and also the influence of active regulation."
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"P >" long term factor is that our country has entered a new stage of pformation and upgrading, that is, from the past high-speed growth to a new stage of higher speed growth, this is an inevitable regularity change.
In other words, this is the objective reality of the decline of the potential growth rate brought about by the change of economic growth stage.
Ma Jiantang said.
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< p > because China's economy has slowed down to a certain extent, but from the results of the semi annual report, China's economy is only moderately down. Ma Jiantang said that the fundamentals of economic growth have not changed fundamentally, but there are still some changes.
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< p > first, there is a change in the supply pattern of China's population and labor force.
He said that the natural growth rate of population has slowed down in recent years.
In 2012, the working age population of 16 to 60 years old was 922 million, an absolute reduction of 2 million 50 thousand over the previous year.
In China, the population aged over 60 has reached 197 million in 2012, accounting for 14.3% of the total population in China.
With the aging population increasing, the proportion and total amount of the working age population will definitely decrease for the first time, and the result will inevitably affect the labor cost.
Therefore, labor costs have increased rapidly in recent years.
"Some a target=" _blank "href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "> textile < /a > enterprise, system a target=" _blank "href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "> shoes < > > enterprises pfer to Southeast Asia, because the labor cost there is cheaper.
Therefore, the change of population and labor supply pattern is probably an important aspect of a fundamental change in our fundamentals.
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< p > resources and environment.
Ma Jiantang pointed out that the per capita resource level of our country is not high, especially the efficiency of resource utilization.
The efficiency of resource utilization in China is still relatively low compared with the world average.
Ma Jian Tang, for example, said that in 2009, the energy consumption per ton of US $GDP was 7.68 tons of standard oil, while that in developed countries was 1.92 tons, and the other developed countries in Europe were more than 1 tons.
In 2009, China accounted for 8.6% of the world's GDP, but consumed 62% of the world's coal and 14% of the world's fresh water.
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< p > "under such circumstances, on the one hand, the labor supply changes make labor costs increase. On the other hand, the constraints of resources and environment on us increase, and the economy can no longer maintain a high growth rate of over two digits over the past few decades. This is a long-term factor."
Ma Jiantang pointed out.
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< p > Third, from the external factors, this round of economic slowdown should be directly related to changes in the external environment.
The financial crisis, marked by the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers in 2008, has made many countries' economies no longer come out, and this situation can not affect our country.
For example, from 2010 to last year, the global growth rate increased by 5.2% in 2010, 3.9% in 2011, and 3.1% in 2012, showing a downward trend. Among them, the developed economies increased by 3% in 2010, 1.7% in 2011, 1.2% in the growth rate, 7.6% in growth, 7.6% in growth, 6.2% in growth, 4.9% in GDP.
Our country has a high degree of dependence on foreign countries. The first ten years of entering the new century depend on more than 50% of foreign trade.
Quite a number of enterprises in China are abroad.
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< p > Ma Jiantang believes that the deceleration of the world economy and the deceleration of the developed economies will have greater impact on China's economy, especially for the coastal areas and export oriented enterprises.
Export oriented enterprises are not good, their raw materials consumption is also reduced, and also affect other industries.
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< p > "therefore, the downward trend of the economy should be directly related to the changes of the external environment."
Ma Jiantang pointed out.
"China is inseparable from the world, and the accelerated development of the world economy is relatively good for us. We can not be alone in the decline and deceleration of the world economy.
On the other hand, we must also admit that the slowdown or downtrend of our economy is directly related to the contradictions accumulated by China itself.
The contradictions accumulated in China are unsustainable and unbalanced.
I think there are two outstanding problems: first, the low utilization rate of capacity.
The capacity utilization rate of our country is not very high. In other words, the problem of excess capacity is quite prominent.
The latest data show that in the two quarter of 2013, the capacity utilization rate of all industrial sectors was 78.6%.
It means that 21.4% of the capacity is idle, and some industries may have a lower utilization rate.
In the case of excess capacity, if demand is insufficient, it will inevitably lead to a fall in product prices and a decline in sales, and then enterprises will get into difficulties, which will bring negative pull to the economy.
This is a very prominent problem.
Two, the utilization rate of resources is still relatively low, and the mode of growth is relatively extensive.
Therefore, China's economic growth has been affected by the long-standing domestic contradictions. "
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< p > Fourth, there is also an active component of regulation in this round of economic downfall.
Ma Jiantang explained, "for example, the 12th Five-Year plan" adopted in the fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee 2010 clearly defined the target of economic growth in 12th Five-Year for 7%, which is a proposal of the CPC Central Committee on the "12th Five-Year" plan.
The "12th Five-Year" plan adopted by the two sessions in March 2011 formally identified the economic growth target of 12th Five-Year as 7%.
At the beginning of this year, the annual economic growth target was set to 7.5%.
All this means that the Party Central Committee and the State Council no longer pursue excessively high speed. They no longer talk about heroes based on the growth of GDP, but turn the power of economic development to the way of pformation and structural adjustment.
Therefore, the "12th Five-Year plan" should take scientific development as the theme and structural adjustment as the main line.
I think this is an active regulation of the Central Committee and the State Council on the speed of economic growth, which reflects the profound understanding of the objective law of economic development by the new central collective leadership, and reflects the new Party Central Committee's conscious understanding of the drawbacks of the traditional and extensive development mode.
Thus, while keeping the economy at a steady pace of development, we should concentrate more on "adjusting the structure, changing the way and promoting reform".
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