In The Traditional Off-Season Textile Industry, The Trend Of Mid-Term Cotton Price Decline Is Hard To Change.

< p > recent domestic macroeconomic data basically meet expectations, easing the pessimism of the market, but < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > industry entered the traditional off-season, cotton spot prices continued to decline, dragging down the price of the period, the trend of the mid-term downward trend of Zheng cotton price is difficult to change.

< /p >

< p > the pattern of supply and demand has not changed. The US Department of agriculture's July supply and demand report shows that the global cotton output in July is 25 million 695 thousand tons, increasing by 186 thousand tons, ending at 20 million 539 thousand tons, increasing by 402 thousand tons, of which China's cotton terminal inventory is 12 million 830 thousand tons, accounting for 62.5% of the end of the world stock.

Although the US Department of Agriculture reports that China's supply and demand data have not been adjusted, the increase in global cotton output and ending inventory indicates that the supply of cotton has become more relaxed, and cotton prices in the late stage are facing upward pressure.

< /p >

< p > policy is facing the test. In 2013, the government will continue to open up and store cotton at a price of 20400 yuan to stabilize the market. However, no details have been announced yet.

From the past two years, the purchasing and storage effect has played a stabilizing role in the market, but it has strong support for the storage and storage enterprises, while the support for cotton farmers is very limited.

At present, the relevant departments are considering the cotton direct subsidy pilot, if the late purchasing and storage strength weakened, the cotton price short term will be pressurized downward.

In addition, the reserve cotton stocks are abundant, and the pressure of the rotation warehouse is relatively large. However, domestic textile enterprises are dragged down by insufficient funds and orders.

As of July 15th, in 2013, the total number of cotton auction has reached 2 million 920 thousand tons, with a total turnover of only 24.65%.

< /p >

< p > textile industry entered the off-season, cotton demand once again turned pale. From July to August, the textile industry entered the traditional off-season, the order of enterprises fell, the operating rate declined again, and cotton remained low.

In June, China's cotton import volume was 269 thousand and 600 tons, a decrease of 43.3% compared to the same period, and a decrease of 21.98%.

In addition, according to the China cotton information network survey, in June, the textile enterprises' inventory of cotton was 932 thousand and 100 tons, up 4 thousand and 500 tons from last month, and yarn inventory for 23.26 days, up 3.18 days from last month, and the textile enterprise operating rate declined compared with May.

The cotton spot market is running light, and spot prices are falling slightly. It is expected that the downturn in the latter order will continue, and cotton prices will still face greater pressure.

< /p >

< p > owing to the low volume of registered cotton warehouse receipts at present, and the new cotton warehouse receipts in September have not yet been generated, the anticipation is still more intense. The Zheng cotton 1309 contract will remain high. While the price of zhengmian 1401 contract is greater, the downward trend in the medium term is hard to change, and investors can consider buying a near sell arbitrage operation.

< /p >