Cotton Prices Are Subject To The Policy Of Purchasing And Storage And Direct Subsidy Policy.

< p > < < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > cotton price < /a >, Tan Xiaohu felt very much in Hebei cotton trade. From the boom of 2010 to the sharp fall after 2011, the domestic cotton price seems to have entered a dead end in his words. < /p >
< p > take the main cotton futures contract on the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange as an example, the contract price has been hovering between 19500-20300 yuan / ton this year. From the perspective of market outlook, the related industry policy is still the most important factor affecting cotton prices, while purchasing and storage and < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > Direct Subsidy Policy < /a > has become the most important concern of the market. < /p >
< p > < strong > who will pay the difference between the reserve price and the reserve price < /strong > < /p >
< p > reporter has learned that following the price of 19800 yuan / ton in the 2011/2012 year, the government continued to store the price of 20400 yuan / ton at a price limit, and at the same time, the reserve price of reserve cotton was only 19000 yuan / ton for 2012/2013. < /p >
Li Xiaowei, a senior researcher at Yide futures, told reporters that the storage and storage of 2012/2013 totaled 6 million 506 thousand tons, accounting for 85.4% of the cotton output in that year. The departments concerned took up hundreds of billions of yuan each year for cotton storage and storage, almost monopolizing the domestic cotton supply market. The state's policy of collecting and throwing reserve has effectively stabilized the market, but the cost is to bear some losses in the industry. < /p >
< p > data show that the lint price of grade 328 has been maintained at 19220 yuan / ton recently, and the price fluctuation is very small. A a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > the company official told reporters that the national a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > reserve cotton < /a > has become an important source of many domestic cotton enterprises to lower the cost. In the past two years, with the high cotton price and the industrial crisis under control, about 40% of the small and medium-sized cotton enterprises with less than ten thousand spindles have been closed down. Dumping at the national level began in January 14, 2013 and lasted until July 31st, of which cotton was released in March 31st and 2011. Since April 1st this year, the departments concerned have begun to gradually launch 2012 cotton and imported cotton in China. < /p >
< p > although Li Xiaowei's policy of dumping and storage has helped the industry, Mr. Li Xiaowei also expressed his concern: "with the approaching of the policy time limit in the future, if the latter no longer throws the store, it will be a major blow for most textile enterprises." < /p >
< p > < strong > < < > > /strong > > /p >
< p > reporter noted that < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > cotton futures < /a > main contract 1401 is more than 600 yuan / ton of spot lift, and 1309 of the contract in recent months is more than 1600 yuan per ton. < /p >
< p > Liu Chunfang, a researcher at CITIC Securities and investment bank, explained to reporters that the policy of cotton picking up and throwing was indeed an effective protection for the textile industry chain, but at the same time, it also interfered with the cotton market, making the cotton futures price and cotton spot prices seriously out of line, and the futures premium water existed for a long time. This phenomenon is hard to see on other futures varieties. < /p >
< p > however, there is no arbitrage between futures and spot even if there is a large increase in water. There are two problems: "on the one hand, the price of cotton futures 1401 main contract is only above the purchasing price of 20400 yuan / ton, and the market has the power to register the warehouse receipts for short selling arbitrage, and the price of the contract is still below 20000 yuan / ton on Thursday. Therefore, enterprises do not have the intention to register the warehouse receipt; on the other hand, a large number of cotton enters the national treasury, and the shortage of spot quantity is also an important reason for the small amount of warehouse receipts." Liu Chunfang introduced. < /p >
< p > since this year, futures contracts have been very strong at the time of close delivery, and the 1301 and 1305 contracts have exceeded the closing price. At present, 1309 is approaching delivery, and its price has also soared. Although it has more than 20400 yuan / ton, it has no possibility of arbitrage because of the low number of warehouse receipts and the cost of cost. In order to prevent this abnormal phenomenon, the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange has raised the margin of the last month's contract again and again, but with little effect. < /p >
< p > another reason that leads to no arbitrage between futures and spot is the objective reality of the low volume of cotton futures and the continuous outflow of funds in the near future. < /p >
< p > reporter noted that in the past two months, the futures contract has only twenty thousand or thirty thousand hands on the 1401 contract day, and there are only a few hundred hands in the contract 1309 in recent months. In 2011, the volume of turnover on the main contract day was more than one million. The poor liquidity makes it difficult for the capital to get in and out. Therefore, even if there is opportunity to make profits, the enthusiasm of fund participation is not high. < /p >
< p > < strong > the direct subsidy policy has a great influence on < /strong > < /p >.
According to the survey data of < p > China a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > Cotton Association < /a >, the cotton planting area in China was 68 million 160 thousand mu in 2013, the lowest record in 10 years. < /p >
"P >" Li Xiaowei told reporters that the attractiveness of cotton planting to farmers is weakening. Because of the serious insect pests, complex field management and high demand for the labor force, the rising cost of the labor force increases the cost of the cotton seed. From the point of view of efficiency, farmers can get better income than cotton (8:1) (cotton and wheat price ratio), but at present, the ratio of cotton to grain is about 5:1, and the low income and manpower consumption make farmers' willingness to grow lower. < /p >
< p > a source said that now the state is planning to introduce a direct subsidy policy for cotton planting, which is about 100 yuan per mu. "The possibility of direct subsidy is very great." Liu Chunfang even thought that the direct subsidy policy was even expected to start in 2014. < /p >
< p > if next year's implementation of "a href=" http://www.91se91.com > Cotton Subsidy "/a" will have a direct impact on spot prices. After the direct subsidy, the cost of seed cotton will decrease significantly. According to the statistics of cotton production and direct subsidy amount of 100 yuan per mu last year, the production cost per ton of cotton will be reduced by about 1030 yuan, but this has little effect on the spot price this year, and more impact will be reflected in cotton prices next year. In fact, this is already reflected in the 1405 contract of Zheng cotton futures, which is lower than the spot price and the futures contract price in recent months. < /p >
< p > there is an opportunity for intertemporal arbitrage in the futures market. For example, the future price trend of the cotton 1405 contract of the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange will drop with the spot price because of the direct subsidy, while the 1401 cotton contract is still in the period of the protection of the reserve policy. < /p >
< p > with the approaching date of delivery, the price of the 1401 contract will be gradually closed to the 20400 yuan / ton storage price. The theoretical difference between the two parties should be around 2000 yuan, and the difference between the two parties is only 700 yuan. < /p >