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It Is Not The Final Goal Of Policy To Enter The "Pregnancy" Period.

2013/7/25 21:29:00 23

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if we say that the cotton purchase and storage policy opened in 2011 is in the context of a sharp fall in cotton prices, to protect the interests of cotton farmers came into being. Now, this policy which has been implemented for nearly three years has arrived at the turning point of "robbery and retreat".

"P" should be "robbed", namely, "market robbery", that is, excessive market intervention, resulting in the weakening of the market mechanism, the shortage of high-quality cotton, the difficulty of cotton spinning enterprises to survive because of the high cost; two, the "gray robbery", that is, the policy of collecting and storing the imported goods and the matching quota management system of imported cotton in the implementation of distortions, breeding the grey areas such as cotton spinning and quota scalping; three, "capital robbery", such huge storage and purchasing costs are huge, and the daily inventory, warehousing and other cost losses are hundreds of millions of dollars.

according to authoritative sources, the top leaders of the state have declared that "the current cotton purchase and storage policy can no longer go on". The relevant departments of the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance and China's < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile "/a" > Industry Federation are investigating the direct subsidy policy.

This means that the direct subsidy policy has entered the "ready pregnancy", but "how to make up, how much to make up and how to ensure the subsidy is in place" needs careful consideration and comprehensive design, which is bound to be complicated and difficult.

misplaced "visible hand" .

"at present, it is very difficult for enterprises to operate, the shortage of raw materials for cotton procurement, the pressure of bank loans, and the increase of labor costs are all our biggest practical difficulties, of which raw material purchasing pressure is the biggest."

Zhang, a person in charge of a cotton textile enterprise in Shandong, sighed to the China Securities Journal reporter.

in the recent research, Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation, also found that the difficulty of raw material procurement brought great harm to cotton textile enterprises.

"At present, from Shandong to Heze, the small cotton textile enterprises with less than 30 thousand spindles from Dezhou to 50% have been discontinued.

In the Anyang area of Henan, 50% of small cotton textile enterprises stopped production at the beginning of the year.

The large enterprises that are eligible to participate in the auction of national cotton stores and get the quotas of imported cotton are relatively better.

relevant data show that domestic cotton output is about 7 million 400 thousand tons in 2012/2013, and the country has collected and stored 6 million 500 thousand tons of cotton at 20400 yuan / ton storage price, accounting for 90% of the total cotton output in the country. This resulted in a serious shortage of cotton circulation in the market, and domestic cotton prices rose.

Although the state has released the storage and regulation supply since then, because the quality of the cotton reserves has declined seriously, and the price of the reserve cotton has reached 19000 yuan / ton, which is 4000-5000 yuan / ton higher than the import price of cotton at the same time, resulting in a low willingness to store the cotton enterprises.

"purchasing and storage policy has raised the domestic cotton price, which has made the difference between inside and outside cotton price widened and long-term high. Large enterprises can get the quotas of imported cotton, so that they can buy cheap imported cotton, so the operation is slightly better, and small and medium-sized enterprises are difficult to buy cotton or can only buy high priced cotton, and the market competitiveness decreases, so they shut down more."

Galaxy futures analyst Ji Hong pointed out.

we can see that in the competition of textile industry, the quota of imported cotton is the key to winning.

The so-called quotas for imported cotton are important means for the state to control the quantity of imported cotton, guarantee the sales of domestic cotton and protect cotton farmers.

It can be divided into two categories, one is the tariff rate of 1%, and the other is the tariff quota for levying taxes of 4-40%. The former is the quota of imported cotton that is tied up with the reserve cotton according to the proportion (hereinafter referred to as quotas). The other is the tariff quota of 1%.

according to the regulations, quotas are prohibited from trading privately.

However, in the context of high and low cotton prices and high quality of imported cotton, the demand for imported cotton is relatively large. The quota of imported cotton thus forms an active invisible market. Some qualified enterprises will make profits through selling quotas, or even rely on scalping quotas for survival. Some traders sniff out business opportunities and specializes in "quota brokers".

In response, the industry analysis said: "this is actually the market in the supply shortage conditions, forced to adjust the supply and demand of the helpless."

except for quotas, "turning cotton" is also a corner of grey area.

The so-called "turn around cotton" mainly refers to the reserve cotton re package that enterprises will sell at a low price and the packaging of the new cotton storage and storage in the new year. If the relevant costs are not considered, the profit margin of the cotton rotation per ton will be 1400 yuan based on the current 20400 yuan / ton storage price and the 19000 yuan / ton throw price.

"at present," turn around cotton "is not a common phenomenon. It has not affected the market price of electronic discs and the policy of national collection and distribution.

Chen Xiaoyan, Galaxy futures analyst, pointed out that many measures have been put in place to prevent "spinning cotton", including measures such as "supervision, reward reporting, margin deposit".

"However, as long as there is profit margin in the purchase price and the market price, it is impossible to completely eliminate the" turn around cotton ".

in September of this year, new cotton is on the market, and the Department announced that the reserve cotton will be closed at the end of July 2013.

Dong Shuangwei, chief analyst of capital futures, believes that this may be to prevent the emergence of "turn cotton". It also indicates that the new flower will continue to implement the new policy of open storage and purchase after the listing of new flower.

"At the end of July, when the storage period before the new flower is closed, the possibility of continuous dumping will be greatly reduced if there is no effective measures to prevent cotton spinning."

"In fact, textile enterprises continue to write, calling for storage and parking.

It is reported that the state may adopt a compromise approach and will continue to put in reserve cotton at the end of July after two weeks of suspension.

Chen Xiaoyan said.

P > Direct Subsidy Policy entered pregnant period

"purchasing and storage policy" is good intention. From the past two years, the purchasing and storage policy has played a certain role in protecting cotton farmers and stabilizing the planting area.

However, after two years of unlimited storage, the state has accumulated more than 10 million tons of reserves, which has consumed enormous manpower, material resources and financial resources. In this year, China's cotton inventory consumption ratio reached 140%, and cotton inventories accounted for more than 50% of the global final inventory, which is very rare in the world.

Galaxy futures analyst Ji Hong said.

Gao Yong, vice president of the Federation of China textile industry, wrote accounts to reporters. In 2011/12, 3 million 130 thousand tons were collected and the storage price was 19800 yuan / ton, which cost 61 billion 974 million yuan. The storage and purchase price in 2012/13 increased to 20400 yuan / ton, the total storage capacity was up to 6 million 500 thousand tons, the cost was 132 billion 600 million yuan, and the total storage capacity was 9 million 630 thousand tons in two years. The total cost was 194 billion 574 million yuan.

"the funds for collecting and storing funds come from the loans issued by the agricultural development bank. The difference between the purchase and storage and the storage is subsidized by the Ministry of finance.

The cost of collecting and distributing the storage price plus warehousing, management, personnel and so on is about 3000 yuan per ton of cotton and 10 million yuan per ton, which is 30 billion yuan.

If we use direct subsidy policy, we may only need to spend 1/3 or less of it, so that we can achieve the goal of protecting cotton farmers and stabilizing the market.

Gao Yong sighed.

According to authoritative sources, the top leaders of the state have made it clear that "the current cotton purchase and storage policy can no longer continue." the agriculture development bank also said it was difficult to support such a large-scale purchase and storage of loans for a long period of time, according to authoritative sources. P

At the same time, reporters learned that the relevant departments of the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance and the China Textile Industry Federation are investigating the direct subsidy policy, and the pilot is expected to start in the second half of next year, or will be formally promoted next year.

This means that the direct subsidy policy has entered the "ready pregnancy". But how to make up, how much to make up and how to ensure that the subsidy is in place needs careful consideration and comprehensive design. The process of pregnancy is bound to be complicated and arduous.

Dong Shuangwei, chief analyst of capital futures, said that the direct subsidy policy must solve a series of details before implementing the policy. For example, whether the direct subsidy is based on the amount of seed cotton or planting area, the specific standard of subsidy, whether the executive body of the subsidy is a certain ministries or associations, or is placed under the enterprise; how to supervise the implementation of the subsidy in the implementation process and prevent rent seeking activities as far as possible, and so on. P

"Cotton direct subsidy policy makes textile < a target=" _blank "href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "> clothing < /a > industry is expected to get cheaper raw materials, but if the direct subsidy policy is not implemented in place, does not fundamentally protect the interests of cotton farmers and stabilize cotton production, it may cause cotton prices to rise and fall because of the sharp fluctuations in cotton supply.

Therefore, policy designers are very cautious.

Chen Xiaoyan, Galaxy futures analyst, said that because of the fragmented cotton growing area and unclear area, how to ensure subsidies to the farmers in the hands of direct subsidy funds is still a problem.

Specifically, it is whether to fill or supplement the amount according to mu, whether the pilot is chosen or not, and the relevant departments have not yet formed the final opinion.

direct subsidy is not final purpose

"P >" there are many imperfections in the current cotton policy. We advocate direct subsidy policy, just to break the current system and hope to achieve more marketization.

But the direct subsidy policy is not the best regulation policy. "

Gao Yong, vice chairman of the China Textile Industry Federation, said that only by stepping out of the small-scale farming mode and realizing the development of scale, mechanization and industrialization, improving the quality of cotton and enhancing the international competitiveness of enterprises, is the fundamental way to solve the cotton problem.

at present, Xinjiang Corps has begun large-scale use of mechanical picking, significantly improving the efficiency of cotton planting and reducing production costs, and at present, Xinjiang's cotton output accounts for 50-60% of the national cotton output.

Therefore, Xinjiang is not only the best pilot of direct subsidy policy, but also the experimental field and forerunner of the future cotton industry development mode.

Chen Jing, a futures analyst at P, also thinks that direct subsidy is not the best solution. Foreign developed countries, such as the United States, prefer to solve the market problems by market means, such as futures, options and other financial derivatives to evade the risk of price fluctuation, thus replacing the original subsidy policy originally used to protect the interests of farmers.

from the perspective of industrial development, cotton textile enterprises should get out of the current predicament. Chen Jing believes that on the one hand, the textile industry must enhance its own survival and competitiveness, and can not freeze the industry to the low threshold and big price war situation in the first two years. We should increase R & D and brand building and training on the basis of guaranteeing quality. On the other hand, we should have a sense of risk control, and we can avoid certain market risks by means of financial instruments.

cotton spinning enterprise as a labor-intensive industry has played a great role in China's economic growth and foreign exchange earning for many years. However, in the pformation and upgrading of China's economic development, cotton textile enterprises are in a relatively sunset industry. After that, it should be based on structural industry adjustment, encourage mergers and acquisitions, eliminate backward production capacity and raise brand added value.

At the same time, we should learn from the advanced experience of the European and American markets, carry out risk management and control of raw materials, and find out the replacement of raw materials to meet the needs of the company's products. We should also use the price discovery and hedging function of the cotton futures market, effectively reduce the loss of raw material costs and storage losses, and lock in the expected profits of enterprises.

Chief futures analyst Dong Shuangwei said.

"we should try to solve the problems faced by the cotton industry by means of marketization."

Dong Shuangwei suggested that in recent years, the policy factors to a certain extent caused the domestic cotton spinning enterprises to have a high cost of using cotton, and the relevant departments in the future should create a market and fair competition environment for enterprises.

On this basis, cotton textile enterprises should adapt themselves to the objective requirements of China's economic pformation and upgrading, and actively upgrade their product competitiveness and brand value.

Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation: direct subsidy policy will help to break the plight of the cotton industry

cotton purchasing and storage policy did play a positive role in supporting the market at the beginning of its implementation; however, with the continuous implementation of the policy and the increasing breadth of purchasing and storage, the supply of cotton in the market was in short supply.

Regarding this, Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation, said: "only by implementing direct subsidy policy for cotton farmers can we break the existing cotton industry predicament.

At present, the authorities are studying the details of the policy, and the next step may be a pilot project, which may be promoted in a year.

Xinjiang is one of the pilot areas that we recommend. "

China Securities Journal: at present, the turnover of cotton reserves is rather cold. As of July 16th, the total amount of listed cotton was 12137004.91 tons, with a total turnover of 2989331.453 tons, with a total turnover of only 24.63%.

What is the reason?

Gao Yong: there are three reasons.

First, the storage price is too high, about 19000 yuan / ton, resulting in the overall turnover is slack.

Recent turnover has picked up because most of the stored cotton is Xinjiang cotton and imported cotton, which is of better quality and is welcomed by enterprises.

2. Cotton quality of 2012/13 cotton season is too poor.

Because this year is open storage, many cotton shoddy.

And because the quantity of storage and collection is too large, it is difficult for the inspection department to screen carefully, and all the cotton collected will lead to a decline in the overall quality of cotton.

In general, Xinjiang cotton and imported cotton are of better quality. Xinjiang cotton is mostly stored in warehouses in Xinjiang and near Xinjiang provinces. Therefore, enterprises buy cotton according to the location of the warehouse where the reserve cotton is located to determine whether to buy it.

Third, the issue of enterprise funds.

Recently, textile enterprises have low operating efficiency and insufficient liquidity, and at the same time, bank loans have also tightened. They can only buy as many as they need.

China Securities Journal: why is the collection and storage price high? What is the current survival situation of textile enterprises?

Gao Yong: in 2011/12, cotton consumption in China and India increased sharply, and the cotton price in the world increased, reaching a maximum of 32000-33000 yuan / ton, when international cotton prices were unchanged from domestic prices.

However, since the beginning of 2011, cotton prices began to plunge and fell to around 26000 yuan / ton, and many enterprises, including textile enterprises, reflected the relevant departments, hoping that the state could introduce policies to support the market.

Therefore, the purchase and storage policy came into being, and the cotton price at that time basically stabilized at 20000 yuan / ton.

Domestic cotton prices therefore stabilized, but the international cotton prices continued to fall, once fell below 13000 yuan / ton. Last year, the difference between the domestic and foreign prices remained at 6000 yuan / ton in the last six months.

it can be said that the policy of initial purchase and storage should meet the needs of the market and play a positive role in stabilizing domestic cotton prices.

However, after the domestic cotton prices stabilized, domestic cotton prices and foreign cotton prices had a larger price difference, coupled with the implementation of the policy of purchasing and storage in 2012/13, the price was raised from 19800 yuan to 20400 yuan, and it was open to storage and storage. Almost all the 2012/13 cotton output in the year was about 6000000 tons.

After the domestic cotton price rises, the price difference between China and foreign countries has further increased, resulting in higher cotton price in China than that in the international market, making China become a net importing country from the yarn exporting country to the yarn market.

From the perspective of industrial chain, a large number of imported cotton yarn has led to a large number of spinning enterprises at the front of the industrial chain. In other words, the current situation of the textile industry is to sacrifice the most advanced spinning enterprises to preserve the entire industrial chain.

China Securities Journal: do you have any attitude towards whether the direct subsidy policy will replace the purchasing and storage policy? Will 2013/14 cotton direct subsidy policy be implemented?

Gao Yong: China's existing cotton policy, whether imported cotton quota, sliding tax or storage, is built on the basis of protecting the interests of cotton farmers.

However, there have been some drawbacks in the implementation of a series of policies for many years. On the one hand, the interests of cotton farmers have not been effectively protected. The processing and collection of processed cotton is not the result of cotton processing. Most of the benefits are obtained from the intermediate links between the embossing plant and the cotton marketing enterprises. The other side is that the textile enterprises suffer great damage due to the high cost of raw materials.

Therefore, we first put forward the policy of direct subsidy to the central government and made direct subsidy to cotton farmers.

Only through direct subsidy can we break the existing cotton dilemma.

besides the above reasons, from the perspective of capital, it is also very difficult to keep collecting and storing.

2013/14 cotton season has been identified to continue to purchase and storage, if the same year with the same number of 6 million tons of storage, plus the original stock will reach 14 million tons or so, such a large inventory is a disaster, there is no place to store, two is the storage and financing from where, the relevant banks on the capital has been unable to continue to support such a large-scale storage.

however, the direct subsidy policy should be implemented for at least one year later. At present, the competent authorities are studying the policy details, and the next step may be a pilot project, which may be promoted in a year.

Xinjiang is one of the most popular pilot areas recommended by us.

"P", of course, there may be drawbacks to direct subsidy, not that direct subsidy is the best way.

We advocate direct subsidy only to break through the current cotton system, so that cotton farmers can get direct subsidies to the state.

After the direct subsidy, the labor productivity of the cotton industry will eventually be improved. The current small-scale peasant cotton planting industry must be developed in the direction of large-scale and mechanized production so as to make China's cotton industry competitive.