Analysis Of The Trend Of Cotton Price In The International Market Policy

< p > the last week before the start of the new year (July 22-26), the market did not get clear directions, and the two sides fought fiercely between 84-86 cents. In December, the contract had not been able to break through the oscillation interval.

As of 26 days, ICE < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > the main contract settlement price in December was 85.12 cents / pound, down 1.06 cents / pound compared with the previous week.

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In the week of P, the more obvious grain market did not bring too much interference to ICE cotton. Once the price was weakening, there were many intervenes.

At present, the market does exist good support for cotton prices. Since 22, ICE registered cotton inventories have dropped by 287370 packages. It is reported that this part of cotton may be shipped and exported in the next few weeks.

In the handover of the new year and the new year, while the supply of cotton was tight, the growth of new cotton was very slow, which aggravated the market's concerns about the market supply in the near future even before the listing of the US cotton market.

The US Department of agriculture report shows that as of July 21st, the rate of cotton bud emergence was only 77%, compared with 88% in the same period last year, and 83% in the past 5 years, and 24% in the same period last year, 45% in the same period last year, and 42% in the past 5 years.

In addition, the auction of China's reserve cotton production will end in July 31st, and no new policy has yet been released. Cotton traders believe that cotton will become the main target of purchasing a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile > /a > factory during the "vacuum period" of the policy.

However, the quality of the cotton that is still on sale this year is not satisfactory, and the new cotton in the northern hemisphere will not be available until October. According to the analysis, the textile mill will increase its participation in the auction of cotton reserves before July 31st. Meanwhile, the quality cotton and India and Pakistan cotton yarn are expected to enter the market in large quantities to meet the needs of the textile mills.

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< p > in the middle of June this year, when ICE cotton fell from 89 cents to 83 cents, Cotton Traders once predicted that the market would become poor and the price of cotton would fluctuate between 83-85 cents.

Now the market trend has verified this judgement, and after China's weaning of textile mills, the speculation of foreign cotton sales will be verified one by one. Therefore, whether cotton prices can break through the current oscillating area depends on the impact of the sale of cotton on cotton price trend.

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< p > < strong > 2013/14 year later, the international cotton price is bearish < /strong > < /p >.

< p > several well-known American cotton experts analyzed the trend of "a" href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > international cotton price < /a > last week in 2013/14.

They said that although the increase in global cotton supply is likely to reduce the international cotton price by about 10%, the Chinese government's continued purchase and storage and the decline in US cotton stocks will continue to provide support for ICE cotton futures in 2013/14.

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< p > Alan Jo Nicosia of American treasure company CEO said that China's cotton policy in 2014/15 is likely to change and cotton prices may fall deeper.

However, futures prices will not react prematurely, because China's import demand will remain active in the early part of 2013/14, and the supply of US cotton will decrease in the early years of the new year.

By the end of 2012/13, the end of the US cotton inventory is expected to be 849 thousand tons, the highest in the past four years, but at the same time, ICE futures registered inventories are decreasing rapidly, and the slow growth of new cotton flowers may delay the listing.

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Jalal Hannibal, President of P Calcot, believes that the price of ICE futures in 2013/14 is expected to fluctuate at 75-92 cents. The low price may appear in the spring of 2014, when cotton prices will drop by about 10% compared to the current level.

With the new listing of new cotton in the world, the international cotton price will fall, but 72 cents is expected to stimulate China's import demand, so that the international cotton price will continue to be higher than the historical long-term average.

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< p > Nicosia said that since December last year, the ICE futures contract has fallen to a minimum of 72 cents, rising to the highest point of nearly 93 cents in March this year.

The Chinese government has bought and sold the international cotton price, which has kept the stock in other parts of the world decreasing.

Looking ahead to 2013/14, the < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > US cotton exports < /a > is expected to exceed the US Agricultural Ministry's current forecast of 2 million 395 thousand tons, but the situation is full of variables, and China's policy may change.

Nicknia said that global cotton consumption has become more and more dependent on China's policy of purchasing and storage, which is not sustainable.

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