Analysis Of The Trend Of International Cotton Prices In The First Half Of 2013

< p > < strong > domestic and foreign < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton price < /a > all fluctuated at high level < /strong > /p >

< p > in the first half of 2013, domestic and foreign cotton prices basically went out of the upward trend of oscillation, but the increase of international cotton prices and domestic cotton prices showed a certain differentiation.

US cotton is boosted by supply worries and less than a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile > /a > factory buying support, but the price of 90 cents / pound is also experiencing a buying profit and a certain sell-off.

Domestic cotton prices are impacted by the simultaneous impact of the national reserve and the collection and release, and the market funds continue to flow out and futures prices fall into a narrow range.

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< p > < strong > international cotton price such as roller coaster < /strong > /p >

< p > the trend of international cotton price in the first half of 2013 is divided into 3 stages.

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< p > in the first quarter of this year, the US cotton futures price was boosted by the support of the us a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > cotton < /a > supply anxiety and the buying of shorts and spinning mills.

US cotton prices jumped more than 16% since the beginning of this year, and speculators increased their long-term positions in cotton futures and options to the highest level in September 2010. US cotton prices hit nearly a year high while the world's largest cotton market - China will continue to buy cotton.

During this period, the US cotton 1305 contract continued to oscillate from the lowest 74.58 cents / pound in early January to 93.93 cents / pound in March 15th, up 25.9%.

In the middle of March ~5, the oscillation dropped.

In June, cotton prices rose rapidly and fell.

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From P to mid March, investors kept clearing their positions long before the spot contracts expired, and the profit came to a close when the US cotton prices rose to a one year high in March. The profits of the company were also reduced to a higher level than that of May.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton prices fell during this period and recorded the largest single day decline in September last May 1st.

It is mainly because investors continue to settle their positions and lose momentum in the uptrend driven by speculators.

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In June, when the US government report showed strong demand and tight cotton supply in the US, the market made up for short and investors continued to buy, and foreign textile mills bought cotton after the longest decline in cotton prices over the years.

In the backlog of demand driven by the United States cotton prices rose sharply.

But after the 1307 contract rose to 90 cents / pound, it experienced a profit taking and selling down, and then fell back.

During this period, the 1307 contract of the US cotton futures rose rapidly from 79.3 cents / pound in May 31st to 92.58 cents / pound in June 14th and then dropped to 85 cents / pound.

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< p > < strong > domestic cotton prices are climbing up to < /strong > /p >

In the first half of 2013, the domestic cotton price trend can be divided into 2 stages: < p >

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< p > January, mid January, cotton price oscillation increased.

Due to the worries of supply and the influence of the short sellers and speculators, the US cotton prices continued to rise.

But at that time, China decided to temporarily issue quotas for import cotton processing trade to meet market demand.

After February, Zheng cotton futures did not continue to follow the US cotton oscillation, but operated in an interval oscillation.

Zheng cotton 1309 contracts rose sharply in the first quarter, rising from the lowest 19040 yuan / ton in early January to the highest 20550 yuan / ton in March 15th, or 7.9%, significantly less than that of the US cotton 25.9%.

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< p > ~6 in mid March, the interval oscillation moved away from the warehouse for a long time, but the funds continued to flow out.

Investors continue to settle their positions, so that the momentum promoted by speculators is lost, and the US cotton futures first oscillate back down, but then it was promoted rapidly by the purchase of short covering and foreign a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > textile mill < /a >.

However, during the period, the domestic cotton market was deadlocked due to the domestic policy of collecting and releasing storage, and domestic cotton price volatility narrowed.

During this period, zhengmian 1309 contracts were mainly in the 19750~20450 yuan / ton interval. Since May 15th, positions and trading volume have been in a state of extremely atrophy, while futures prices are also in a narrower range.

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< p > it is worth mentioning that in early May, Zheng cotton was once "soft" in the past 1305 contracts, futures prices rose to the highest level of 21855 yuan / ton, but then fell to 20605 yuan / ton in delivery.

The main reason for the "soft squeeze" during this period is that a large number of cotton resources have been concentrated in the country's storage pole, resulting in the scarcity of available cotton market.

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< p > < strong > multiple factors plagued Cotton City < /strong > /p >

< p > from the macro economic situation, the world economy will continue to grow at a low speed in 2013, but the dependence on the stimulus policy will be reduced and the foundation for recovery will be stable.

International commodity prices will remain at a high level, but the possibility of a sharp rise is unlikely.

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< p > because the slow recovery of the world economy is difficult to change in the short term, China's export growth will still be constrained by insufficient external demand, and protectionist measures against China's exports will also emerge in an endless stream, which will adversely affect the export of related products.

In addition, the developed countries continue to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, and China's import inflation pressure has increased.

As the world economic recovery still faces greater uncertainty, cross border capital flows may also be repeated, which will also bring greater pressure to cross border capital management in China.

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< p > < strong > the situation of oversupply will continue to < /strong > /p >

< p > June 12th, the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand report pointed out that although the outlook for 2013/14 in the US cotton market has improved, it is expected to reverse the over supply of over the years due to soaring prices and weak demand, but there is still a record oversupply in the global market.

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< p > the report also pointed out that the global cotton inventory at the end of the year 2013/14 was estimated at 92 million 490 thousand packages, estimated at 92 million 740 thousand packages in May and 84 million 900 thousand at the end of 2012/13.

The end of the year will be slightly lower than the estimated value of last month, and it will be more profitable in the short term. However, it still shows a significant increase in the previous year, which still restricts international cotton prices.

Meanwhile, the US Department of agriculture also predicted that China's imports would be 2 million 395 thousand tons, but China's final inventory would continue to rise to 12 million 830 thousand tons.

The sharp increase in China's imports in 2012/13 has led to a decline in the end of the global inventory and the change in the volume of global cotton trade.

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< p > < strong > planting intention decreased by 6.7% < /strong > < /p >.

< p > cotton farmers cooperative association of China Cotton Association and Xinjiang Huatai Cotton Professional Cooperative respectively conduct fourth cotton planting intentions and seeding progress surveys on 2766 cotton farmers in 310 provinces (cities and regiments) of 12 provinces in mainland China and Xinjiang autonomous region.

The survey results showed that: according to the weighted average of cotton planting intentions of cotton farmers surveyed, the average planting intention of cotton growers in the whole country decreased by 6.7%, and the decline was 0.3 percentage points higher than that in March. Based on the 2012 and annual area of the association, it is estimated that the total cotton planting area will be 68 million 220 thousand mu this year.

As of April 30th, the total area of cotton planted in the country has accounted for 76.9% of the estimated sown area, up 1 percentage points from the same period last year.

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< p > < strong > < /strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com > strong > textile industry > /strong > /a > strong > demand is not strong.

< p > China as a big country of cotton production and consumption, textile and < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > export power, has been greatly impacted. This year's cotton textile situation is still not optimistic.

Although China's textile and clothing exports have resumed growth, there is no change in the environment where demand is insufficient. The factors such as appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, rising labor costs, and financial difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises still exist.

If the cotton market continues to slump, the sustainable development of the whole cotton textile industry will face severe challenges.

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< p > industry pointed out that although the international economic situation has not improved significantly, but gradually stabilized, demand recovery in some areas, the textile industry has passed the most difficult period, and the situation is generally improving. It is expected that under the background of the national temporary purchasing and storage policy, it is expected to be stable.

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< p > < strong > domestic commodity cotton turnover inventory "low" operation < /strong > < /p >

< p > May, textile enterprises continued to purchase cotton for auction and imported cotton, and the market turnover was still light.

The national commodity cotton turnover inventory remained basically stable, but still significantly lower than the same period in history.

According to statistics, Xinjiang railway pportation mainly takes reserve cotton, and highway pportation is mainly based on commodity cotton. This month, 1703 vehicles are exported to Xinjiang.

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< p > > China a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > Cotton Association < /a > cotton storage branch statistics on 154 warehousing units. As at the end of May, the total turnover of commodity cotton turnover was 287 thousand tons (278 thousand tons in the inland library and 9 thousand tons in the Xinjiang Library), an increase of 6 thousand tons in the chain ratio, a decrease of 856 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

Commodity cotton turnover inventory is still mainly imported cotton and Xinjiang cotton, of which Xinjiang cotton accounted for 33%, real estate cotton accounted for 11%, imported cotton accounted for 56%.

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According to P, the total turnover of cotton turnover in the whole country is about 357 thousand tons, an increase of 8 thousand tons from the previous month.

Over the past 4 months, domestic cotton turnover inventory has remained at "low" level, which in fact reflects the low social demand of domestic cotton and the overall negative cotton market.

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< p > from the < a href= > http://www.91se91.com > ZHENG cotton < /a > index futures trading volume and turnover changes, in addition to the 7 trading days from January 29th to February 6th, trading volume and positions are basically in a state of continuous atrophy, especially during the month of 5~6, turnover and holdings are shrinking to a relative extreme.

This shows that market funds are gradually outflowing and market participation is continuing to decline. Under such circumstances, general futures prices will fall into a narrow range of volatility, so it is difficult to have big market.

And from January 29th to February 6th, the sudden increase in the price of futures led to an instantaneous influx of incremental funds, but these funds were very short speculation. Therefore, the volume of pactions and positions quickly fell into a state of atrophy.

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< p > in addition, from the change of the futures price of zhengmian 1401 contract, the contract has basically fluctuated slightly at 20 thousand yuan since its listing. The main reason is that it is difficult to effectively enlarge the volume and volume of trading, because the market is in extreme wait-and-see.

In this case, it will generally cause a drop in stage to release the short accumulated energy accumulated in the narrow fluctuations of the sideways. In March and June 17th, the sharp drop in the two trading days in 18 days is a manifestation.

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< p >, therefore, in the second half of the year, there will be a downward trend in zhengmian, so as to attract funds to intervene until the volume and positions are effectively enlarged.

It is estimated that the Zheng cotton 1401 contract will fluctuate in the range of 18900~20200 yuan / ton.

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To sum up, to sum up, from the macro perspective, the impact of the international financial crisis continues, the world economic recovery is difficult and tortuous, and there is no sign of strong recovery in the year. There are many unstable and uncertain factors, and downside risks still exist. P

The slow recovery of the world economy is difficult to change in the short term.

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"P >" China's export growth will still be restricted by the shortage of foreign demand, and the protectionist measures against China's export products will emerge in endlessly and bring adverse effects on the export of related products.

The developed countries continue to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, and China's import inflation pressure has increased.

The overall macro environment has a negative impact.

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< p > basically, the growth of global cotton inventories continues to exceed supply, while a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > textile industry < /a > demand slump continues to perplex the cotton market.

The excessive concentration of cotton resources in China has led to problems in the allocation structure of market resources, and cotton prices are in a state of malformation.

Domestic (National Reserve) huge cotton stocks will suppress cotton prices in the long run.

The continuous outflow of market funds by Zheng cotton futures will make Zheng cotton price fall into a "doldrums" for a long time.

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< p > expect the second half of this year's cotton price index (index) in a narrow range of 19500~20500 yuan / ton fluctuations, does not rule out a sudden rapid and small decline of the short end potential.

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