The New Cotton Policy Will Lead To A Sharp Fall In Cotton Contract.

< p > "rumor has to stop buying and storing after March next year, and the purchase and storage will be changed to direct subsidy (direct subsidy), so cotton will fall."

Recently, a cotton spot trader said in an interview with reporters.

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< p > recently, in the "2013 cotton Outlook Forum" held in Urumqi, the responsible person of the cotton association has made it clear that 2013/2014 will be the last year to store and store. After March 2014, the new policy will be introduced, and the cotton contract will fall sharply.

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< p > < strong > the policy held up the price and shrunk the market < /strong > /p >

< p > after having experienced a sharp rise and fall in 2010 and 2011, it has become the most important fundamentals of a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton market < /a >.

On the one hand, the long and large scale of the purchase and storage makes it difficult for the market price to go far below the reserve price. On the other hand, the timely dumping of the state makes the market no longer smooth, so speculative capital gradually withdraws and the market volume shrinks.

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< p > "collection and storage distorts market prices, making futures market dispensable."

The above spot traders told reporters.

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< p > in fact, the volume and position of futures market have gone from bad to worse since the purchase and storage.

Affected by the strong purchase and storage intervention, Zhengzhou cotton futures holdings fell from the peak of 880 thousand hands to the current 90 thousand.

The volume of daily turnover has shrunk to more than 9000 hands from about 4500000 hands at that time.

The light market has led some researchers to switch to other varieties.

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< p > Direct Subsidy news, the market turnover has been more obvious recovery, with the inflow of funds, Zheng cotton CF1401, Zheng Mian CF1405 contract volume and position has increased significantly.

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< p > market expectation that Zheng Mian 1405 contract will be short of State Reserve support and short will take the opportunity to short the contract.

In just two trading days, CF1405's biggest drop was nearly 1000 points.

Affected by this, the main CF1401 contract price intraday also once explored 600 points to 19200 yuan / ton, a record low since July 2012.

However, because of the existence of the 20400 yuan / ton of the country's reserve price, the market is returning to reason, leaving a long downward line.

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< p > from the graphics, the long shadow line of Zheng cotton CF1401 contract does not appear only once.

Often the long shadow line is also related to the inactivity of varieties.

The above spot traders said that when the variety price fluctuation narrowed, the volume gradually shrank and the participation funds were also less and less. So once the market was on the move and the big funds intervened, it would be easy to break the price in an instant, leaving behind the long shadow line.

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< p > Yu Lijuan, director of Jinshi Futures Research Institute, believes that the overall atmosphere of the cotton market is weak, and that the domestic cotton price is strong enough to be maintained under the control of the state's unlimited purchasing and storage policy. Therefore, the market is slightly buoyant or the change of policy anticipates that it will easily lead to the market entry of short selling funds and the trend of long shadow lines.

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< p > < strong > there are differences under the policy market < /strong > < /p >.

< p > as of July 31st, China cotton reserve management company's total sales of reserve cotton in 2013 amounted to 3 million 700 thousand tons, with an average paction price of 18647 yuan / ton.

Previously, it planned to sell 4 million 500 thousand tons by the end of July, and 800 thousand tons of state cotton could not be sold during the planned period.

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< p > Chen Jing, a researcher of cotton futures in Central China futures, told reporters that because the selling plan was not completed, the downstream enterprises generally expected the country to start throwing and storing again.

But on the other hand, according to media reports, recently, the relevant ministries and commissions of the state recently made clear once again that the sale of state-owned cotton stores after the end of July had not yet started the second round of bidding.

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< p > "if the throwing and storage plan is started again, the remaining throwing cotton will definitely continue to exert pressure on domestic cotton prices.

Zheng cotton in the future may still continue the previous shock market.

If there is no new dumping plan, the supply and demand of cotton market in August will still be relatively tight, and Zheng cotton may usher in a wave of rising prices.

Chen Jing said.

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< p > < strong > from the perspective of supply and demand, market divergence still exists.

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< p > Chen Jing said that the impact of the recent continuous low-temperature weather, Xinjiang cotton new year reduction is expected to be deeper than the previous stage, in addition, the domestic turnover inventory and industrial industrial inventories are in a low position. Although this round of dumping and storage is over, the imports of cotton will rebound, but this year's trade quota is tightening. The scale of imported cotton imports will not be able to effectively offset the supply of raw cotton stores. If there is no further dumping plan, it is expected that the supply of domestic cotton will tighten in the 8~9 months before the listing of new cotton.

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< p > demand side, Chen Jing said that at present, < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > and a target= "_blank" href= "_blank" > textile > products, domestic and export consumption deceleration operation, especially export.

The weak data in the two quarter of this year triggered high-level vigilance. A series of favorable policies were put forward before and after the end of July. For example, the export policy of export commodities including textiles and garments, and tax reduction policies for small and micro enterprises, etc., the introduction and fermentation of these favorable policies will surely boost the downstream consumption in the medium and long term.

In addition, August is the peak season for the traditional consumption in the lower reaches, so it is expected that the downstream consumption in August will be better than that in the early stage.

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< p > Yu Lijuan is not optimistic about the supply and demand of cotton. She thinks that from the basic supply and demand side of cotton, whether it is the whole world or China, cotton is in the pattern of oversupply, which means that cotton prices are liable to fall and rise.

In China, under the intervention of the policy of collecting and selling, the domestic market price is obviously higher than the price of foreign cotton.

With the end of July, the cotton throwing and storage policy has been put on the curtain. In the later stage, the cotton price will be shifted to the center of gravity during the vacuum period of the policy, so as to achieve an effective return of cotton price difference between inside and outside.

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< p > < strong > CF1401 contract has a strong support below 19500 yuan / ton < /strong > /p >

< p > in specific operation, Chen Jing suggested: "in the shock interval 19500~20400 yuan / ton near the bottom of light storage test is better.

If the market continues to be implemented as expected, then the cotton price in August may follow the long-range shocks in the early period. Therefore, the layout of the interval will get more market share fluctuations. If it is no longer abandoned, the supply and demand will be tightened on the basic level, and the probability of Zheng cotton uplink in August will be greater.

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< p > "zhengmian main contract CF1401, the important support position in the future is 19000~19500 yuan / ton, the pressure level is 20000~20200 yuan / ton.

It is suggested that investors should sell at a low price of 19600 yuan / ton, and stop the loss at 19500 yuan / ton, and 20000 yuan / ton near the empty entrance, the stop loss is 20200 yuan / ton.

Yu Lijuan said.

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