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China'S Macroeconomic Stability Is Obvious.

2013/8/19 10:08:00 30

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a country in the balance of payments, fiscal revenue and expenditure, inflation, currency exchange rate and other aspects of < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > macroeconomy < /a > stability mutually complementary, may form a benign cycle of mutual promotion; on the contrary, it may also form vicious cycle.

In the open global market competition, the rising cost has become an unavoidable reality for Chinese industry. Building new advantages of international competition has become an urgent task. In this regard, the advantages of China's macroeconomic stability can be pformed into a competitive advantage of enterprises and industries at the micro level.

Compared with other emerging market economies, P has a significant advantage in macroeconomic stability.

Compared with many developed countries, China's macroeconomic stability record is still higher in the past 20 years.

China's macroeconomic stability is obviously less than /strong > /p >

since the second half of 2011, the emerging market economies have seen severe fluctuations, rapid economic growth stall, massive capital flight, currency devaluation to the US dollar exchange rate, and deterioration of trade balance. China's macroeconomic performance is relatively stable during this period.

2012, the economic growth rates of India, Brazil and Russia fell to 4%, 0.9% and 3.4% respectively, while China reached 7.8%. In the first quarter of this year, the economy of India only picked up slightly, Brazil grew 0.6%, Russia grew 1.9%, China's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.7%, second quarter was 7.5%, and the actual GDP growth rate of the whole year was expected to remain above 7.5%.

In terms of inflation, in the first half of the year, the India consumer price index (CPI) dropped from 11.62% to 9.87%, Russia was around 7%, Brazil was at 6%, China was no more than 3%, and CPI growth was generally low. In 2012, the annual growth rate was lower than that in 2011, and at the end of 2012, the increase was lower than that in 2012. The first quarter of 2013 was lower than that of the end of 2012.

in terms of the stability of the local currency exchange rate, since the second half of 2011, India, Russia and Brazil have seen two digit depreciation rates against the US dollar. In June 2011 ~2012, the India rupee depreciated more than 30%.

In the month of 5~7 this year, the emerging market currencies again depreciated sharply. 22 of the 24 emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg were depreciated and sold. The exchange rates of Turkey lira and India rupees both hit the lowest record. Brazil's rareal and South African rand fell to the lowest level in four or five years against the US dollar. In the month of 1~7, the Russian rouble depreciated more than 10% against the US dollar.

However, in several market shocks, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated only slightly, even if it depreciated at a time, it did not exceed 3%.

(P) not only that, the foundation of China's macroeconomic stability advantage is quite stable, even if other indicators are the same, the huge scale of domestic economy and market will give the Chinese macroeconomic additional stability advantage.

the additional competitiveness of "made in China" is less than /strong > /p >

higher macroeconomic stability has given the Chinese enterprises and industries additional competitive advantages from below:

first, in a more predictable environment, the risk of enterprise planning is much lower.

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secondly, the stability of currency exchange rate will enhance the competitiveness of enterprises and industries from three aspects: inflation, labor flow and financial stability of enterprises.

although the devaluation of the currencies of Vietnam and India is regarded as its a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > export < /a >, the manufacturing industry faces one of the advantages of "made in China". However, the substantial depreciation of the currency means that the pressure of imported inflation has soared, not only directly interfering with the operation of enterprises, but also easily detonating more workers because of the damage to the living standards of residents.

This can be seen clearly from Vietnam's high tide of labor.

Vietnam's macroeconomic stability is higher than that of other similar developing countries. However, it can not compare with China and developed countries in resisting external shocks such as imported inflation, and the fluctuation of the real income and living standard of labor groups is correspondingly larger. P

In 1992 ~2001, the consumer price index of Vietnam increased by 8.6% annually. In 2002 ~2012, the annual increase was 4.1%, 3.3%, 7.9%, 8.4%, 7.5%, 8.3%, 23.1%, 6.7%, 9.2%, 18.7%, and 18.7% respectively. The value of all years was higher than the average level of developing countries and regions in Asia, close to or even higher than that of sub Saharan Africa.

In order to maintain the export price advantage, the Vietnamese government showed a strong tendency to depreciate its currency, but p further increased the pressure of imported inflation.

In a high inflation environment, in order to maintain real incomes and living standards, workers can easily take strike measures to raise wages or job hopping.

The impact of labor flow on the normal production and operation order of enterprises is self-evident. Even without labor flow, workers' rapid turnover also brings huge risks of human capital and trade secrets.

In order to reduce labor flow and reduce the loss and risk of human capital caused by the excessive mobility of workers, enterprises have to choose to increase wages and increase subsidies to attract workers. The Vietnamese government has repeatedly raised the minimum wage standard, urging and guiding enterprises to develop in this direction, but too frequent wage adjustments will inevitably affect investors' expectations and disrupt the risk of investor planning.

(P) not only that, export-oriented enterprises in developing countries usually have a prominent currency mismatch risk, that is, they rely heavily on foreign currency financing, while the proportion of assets in the local currency is much higher, and the more frequently the good companies are, the higher the proportion of foreign currency financing in their liabilities.

Because the more good companies are, the more capable they are to raise funds abroad, and the more they prefer offshore financing to avoid high interest rates in the domestic market, and to obtain exchange earnings in the period of economic prosperity and currency appreciation.

Once the local currency depreciates sharply, it will significantly deteriorate the assets and liabilities structure of enterprises, which will lead to bankruptcy and bankruptcy in a large scale.

In the debt crisis that swept the vast majority of developing countries in the 80s of last century, in the currency / financial crisis that broke out in emerging market economies in 90s, the power of the mechanism was evident in the collapse of the Korean Chaebol in 1997 ~1998.

I believe that in the current and future years of emerging market economic turmoil, we will see enterprises that are falling down.

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beware of "price destruction" /p >

the impact of the downward trend of primary products on Global trade and China's import and export is quite obvious.

In 1995, the average annual price increase of manufactured goods, oil and non fuel primary products increased by 0.2%, 9% and 0.1% respectively, and in 2012, they were -0.5%, 1% and -9.8% respectively. In 1995, the International Monetary Fund estimated that the increase in 2013 was 1%, -2.3% and -0.9% in the year of 2013, respectively, in 2012, compared with trade in /a > a > /a.

In the first 7 months of this year, the import price of raw materials such as coal, iron ore, copper and other major raw materials has dropped in an all-round way. Only p oil products have risen in price due to entering the peak season of oil consumption in the summer and the tense situation in Arabia.

In the first half of this year, China imported 1.4 billion tons of crude oil, a decrease of 1.4%, an average import price of 780.7 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 7.6%, an import of 2 million 2 thousand tons of copper, a decrease of 20%, an average import price of 8107.4 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 3.4%, an import of iron ore of 3.8 billion tons, an increase of 5.1%, an import price of 133.2 dollars / ton, a drop of 5.1%, an import of coal of 100 million tons, an increase of imports, and an average import price of US $/ ton, down by.

July, China imported 73 million 140 thousand tons of iron ore, an increase of 26.7%, an average import price of 118.5 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 12.2%, an increase of 28 million 650 thousand tons of imported coal, an increase of 18.3%, an average import price of 86.2 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 16.8%, 26 million 110 thousand tons of imported crude oil, an increase of 19.6%, an average import price of 743.2 dollars / ton, an increase of 743.2, an increase of imports of refined oil, an increase of imports, and an average import price of US $/ ton.

the downward trend of the international market of primary products and the fall in import prices have had two positive and negative effects on China's economy.

The main positive impact is to reduce import inflation pressure, reduce the cost of many downstream industries, and contribute to the sustainable development of China's economy and society.

The biggest negative effect is to cause domestic related industries "price destruction" and get into a predicament. The economy of mineral resources producing areas will be greatly impacted, and at the same time, our country will suffer a certain loss to the export of primary products producing countries.

the decline in import prices of primary products in China will lead to the "price destruction" of domestic related industries, which is in a predicament. The root lies in the poor resource endowments of primary products in China. From the resources of agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry and fishery to mineral resources, the gap between domestic supply and demand of many resources in China can not be compensated for, and the resources of many primary products are large.

Therefore, in the globalized primary product market, only when primary products are bull markets, these industries will have the value of commercial exploitation; once they enter the bear market, these domestic primary industries will be defeated under the impact of cheap import resources.

take coal as an example. China's coal reserves are among the highest in the world. The annual output of coal is far ahead of all other countries, accounting for over half of the world's quality, and the level of technology and equipment of Shenhua and Yitai large coal enterprises has been ranked among the world's peers.

Even so, with the advantages of open pit mining less than the cost advantages of many underground coal mining in China, and the shipping advantages of the products directly pported to the consumer market in the southeastern coastal areas of China, the coal market in Australia opened the import market of Guangdong Province in 80s.

Since entering the new century [-3.88% fund research report, coal imports have been advancing by leaps and bounds, increasing exponentially every year.

According to the author's calculation, in 2002 ~2012, the proportion of China's coal imports relative to the domestic coal output rose from 0.70% to 7.90%. In 2012, the net import of coal was equivalent to 7.65% of the domestic coal output in the year. In 2010, coal imports accounted for 5.22% of the current consumption, and coal net imports accounted for 4.61% of consumption.

This proportion has already had a certain impact on the operation of the domestic market. Accordingly, the coal price in the international market and the average price of China's coal imports have fallen, which has played an important role in the domestic market coal price cut in recent two years.

2012, coal prices in the international market dropped by 21%, China's imports of coal and lignite 2.8851 million tons, an increase of 29.8% over the same period last year, and the average import price was 99.50 US dollars / ton, which was 13.21% lower than the average import price of 114.65 US dollars / ton in 2011. The average import price was reduced from 740.47 yuan per ton in 2011 to 628.09 yuan / ton in 2012, decreasing by 15.18%.

In 2012, the average import price of coking coal dropped by 4.67% in dollar terms and 6.83% in Renminbi. The average import price of other bituminous coal dropped by 11.61% in dollar terms, and declined by 13.62% in Renminbi. The average import price of lignite fell by 15.69% in dollar terms and 17.60% in Renminbi.

domestic coal prices plummeted, to a large extent, from the "price destruction" caused by imports; and the destruction of the price caused the domestic coal industry to slip into the severe winter rapidly from the second half of last year. A large number of products were backlog, and the enterprises suffered large losses and reduced wages. The economic growth of the main coal producing areas such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia rapidly stalled. From the governor of Shanxi province Li Xiaopeng to the leading cadres of many counties and cities in the province, they played the role of coal salesmen.

The coal industry, which has a resource advantage of [-0.99%], will suffer the impact of price destruction, not to mention other resource products that are at a distinct disadvantage compared with those in foreign countries.

In view of this, in view of the impact of price disruption that has been coming or coming, China's primary products industry can only seek to enhance internal strength, vigorously promote structural adjustment and technological innovation, reduce domestic excess capacity, shut down small mines with technology, safety and environmental protection, raise the efficiency of resource development and utilization, promote the comprehensive utilization and recovery of resources, optimize the pport pattern, and extend the reformed tentacles to overseas through the bear market, actively and steadily develop "import oriented direct investment abroad", and obtain high-quality overseas resources through low-cost strategy at the low cost, so that domestic investors can share the gains of resource import growth, and drive the output of labor and capital equipment in China through such investments.