Home >

China Is Not In The Grip Of The Collapse Of Emerging Market Countries.

2013/9/4 18:06:00 19

??? 日本語 Fran?ais English 中文

Emerging Markets Brands Fashion Brands

1. Europe is recovering.

BI said that we expressed this view earlier this summer.

But recent data have made the situation clear in Europe - the European economy is recovering.

the PMI data of Spain and Italy in August hit the highest level since the spring of 2011.

Germany is still strong.

Even Greece's PMI has rebounded sharply, close to the region where the economy has returned to growth (above 50).

not only the PMI data in the euro area are strong, but also the PMI data in the UK.

Eastern European economic data also look very strong.

P, though Europe is not out of the woods, the recent economic data is moving in the right direction, which has made the region more successful in dealing with debt and political issues.

2. China is not in collapse.

For more than a year, China has been in the Schrodinger style hard landing for more than p years.

Some people think China is falling apart.

But others insist that China's situation is not bad, or that it may be in a slight slowdown.

The latest PMI data, P, shows that the situation in China looks good.

Although China's economy is not at the best level, the economic situation has not deteriorated too much.

China's PMI data are slightly better than expected.

P, anyway, the most important thing is that the Chinese government has the ambition to promote economic growth, such as no longer relying solely on large-scale investment, and is determined to advance reform and anti-corruption.

Therefore, although China may not be as greedy as it used to consume global goods, it does not seem likely to collapse in full.

3. the pain of emerging market countries.

it is obvious that the emerging market countries with hot hands all over the world are experiencing serious difficulties.

Indonesia and India are among them. Both countries are facing a series of difficulties, including the deterioration of economic data, capital outflow, currency depreciation, stock market decline and inflation. P

So what caused the weakness? Partly because of the strong US interest rate and the reversal of the inflow of funds.

Now, they need to deal with structural flaws in the economy.

now, the economic data of both countries are rather ugly.

India released the worst manufacturing PMI data in the year, and Indonesia's trade data were also poor.

The question now is not whether they are bad now, but whether they will develop into real "crises".

Now the view is that they will not repeat the crisis at the end of 1990s.

4. the United States is slightly better than before, as always.

the US economy is now better than expected.

Of course, we have been saying this for 3 years.

But now it may be true.

the US economic data in 2013 slightly increased and lasted for a long time.

The US labor market continues to grow.

The strength of the US real estate market is also well known.

But these are not so good, especially in the US labor market.

Recent housing data is also slightly weaker.

In addition, what is happening in the US Congress is unlikely to help P.

Uncertainties in September (Fed chairman nomination, the Fed's QE reduction, budget debate and debt ceiling) are also well known.

Therefore, it seems unlikely that the United States will get rid of its former state.

5. other factors.

Syria.

The United States is now entering a strange control mode.

oil prices are rising.

The situation in Japan P looks good.

P Iraq: another mess.

6. summary:

Japan, Europe and the United States and other major countries have attractive prospects. China's economy is in a low growth state. This is what we have not seen since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009 years.

However, a series of new geopolitical crises are hanging over everything.

In addition, the political struggle in the United States also has the danger of disrupting the situation.