Latest Cotton Growth And Market Output Forecast In 2013

< p > the national cotton market monitoring system built by China cotton reserve management company launched an investigation on the growth of < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > in mid and late 8. The samples were taken from 15 provinces (autonomous regions), 90 cotton planting counties (cities, farms) and 4493 designated cotton planting information contact households. The survey results showed that as of the end of August, the agrometeorological disasters in China had a wide range, and some areas were moderately biased, which had a great impact on cotton production. If the weather is normal in the late period, it is estimated that the new cotton output per unit area will be 100.1 kg / mu, a decrease of 3.7% over the previous year. The decline is 2.6 percentage points larger than that in June, and the total output will be 7 million 92 thousand tons, a decrease of 6.9%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points compared with the June forecast. The specific situation is as follows: < /p >
< p > 1, frequent disasters occurred in the cotton fields in the mainland, and the weather in Xinjiang was basically normal. The survey shows that in 7-8 months, some parts of the the Yellow River River Basin were attacked by severe convective weather such as rainstorm, hail and strong winds. The high temperature and drought in the Yangtze River Basin lasted for a long time, with great intensity and wide range. The extent of the cotton disaster was heavier than that of last year and the same period of the year. 70.4% of the surveyed farmers in the country reflect the weather is good and general, 11.7 percentage points lower than in June, 13.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year, 12.4 percentage points lower than the three years' average, 34.8% farmers reflected the occurrence of moderate and severe disasters, up 21.4 percentage points from June, up 15.3 percentage points from the same period last year, and increased by 16.3 percentage points over the recent three years. < /p >
< p > subregional area, the waterlogging of cotton growing area in the Yellow River basin is more than that of drought. 67.4% of farmers reflect 30.1 percentage points less than that in June. 40.7% of farmers reflect the occurrence of severe disasters, which is 35.7 percentage points higher than that in June. The drought in the Yangtze River basin is the main reason. 51.2% of the farmers reflect the bad weather, which is 43.3 percentage points higher than that in June. 71.3% of the farmers reflect the occurrence of moderate and severe disasters, which is 64.4 percentage points higher than that in June. The weather in northwest inland cotton area is basically normal. Most of the cotton in Xinjiang is growing well, and the extent of the disaster is limited. 83.3% farmers reflect the weather is good and general, and 87.3% farmers reflect the slight occurrence of disasters. < /p >
< p > 2, plant diseases and insect pests generally occurred lightly. According to the survey, 87.9% of the farmers surveyed reported mild diseases, which were 8.9 percentage points lower than in June, down 6.4 percentage points from the same period last year, 5.5 percentage points lower than the three years' average, and 84.7% percent of the farmers surveyed reported a slight decrease in insect pests, which was 4.3 percentage points lower than that in June, a decrease of 6.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and a decrease of 6.4 percentage points over the recent three years. < /p >
< p > subarea, cotton blight and Fusarium Wilt in the Yellow River basin were mixed. 85.8% of farmers reflected slight occurrence of disease, 87.7% of farmers reflected mild occurrence of insect pest, Fusarium oxysporum and Helicoverpa armigera were most harmful to cotton area in the Yangtze River Valley, 84.6% of farmers reflected slight occurrence of disease, 86.3% of farmers reflected slight occurrence of insect pest, 90.8% of farmers in northwest inland cotton area showed slight occurrence of disease, and 81.9% of farmers reflected slight occurrence of pests. < /p >
< p > 3, the growth of cotton buds was affected, and the picking time was basically normal. The number of shoots, buds and bolls of cotton decreased by 0.9%, 9.9% and 3.3% respectively compared with the same period last year. 63.8% of the surveyed households in the country expect the scale picking time to be normal or ahead of schedule, down 0.6 percentage points from June, down 18.5 percentage points from the same period. < /p >
< p > subarea, 76.7% of farmers in the Yellow River basin expect the picking time to be normal or ahead of schedule, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from June, down 13 percentage points from the same period. The main production province of Shandong is waterlogged, but the extent of the disaster is limited. 94% of the farmers expect the picking time to be normal or ahead of schedule, which is 9.8 percentage points higher than that in June, down 5.7 percentage points compared with that of the previous year. The cotton planting in Hebei is late this evening, and the rainfall is excessive, causing the growth lag. 57.1% of the farmers expect the picking time to be delayed, which is 10.4 percentage points higher than that in June, up 25.6 percentage points compared with that of the previous year, and the harvest is expected to be postponed for 7-10 days; < /p >
< p > 94.5% of farmers in the Yangtze River Valley expect to pick up time normally or ahead of schedule, an increase of 13.5 percentage points over June, up 7.3 percentage points from the same period last year, in which Hubei and Hunan are affected by the continuous high temperature, cotton is early maturing, and the picking is expected to be 10 days and 13 days in advance; < /p >
< p > 60.2% of the farmers in the northwest inland cotton area delayed picking time, an increase of 9 percentage points from June, up 32.3 percentage points from the same period last year. The cold air activity in Xinjiang this year is frequent, the temperature is low and the rain is too much. Most parts of the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > cotton area < /a > there are different degrees of delay in the bud to flowering stage. 60.8% of the farmers expect the picking time to be delayed, which is 8.3 percentage points higher than that in June, up 32 percentage points, and the harvest is expected to be postponed for 7-10 days. < /p >
< p > 4, it is estimated that the average yield and total yield of cotton are lower than that of last year. In terms of yield per unit area, if the normal weather is normal, the average cotton yield per unit area in 2013 will be 100.1 kg / mu, which is 2.6% lower than that in June, down 3.7% from the same period last year, and the average increase is 5.8% over the past three years. According to the national cotton market monitoring system May sowing area survey results of 70 million 809 thousand mu, the total output of cotton in 2013 is expected to be 7 million 92 thousand tons, a decrease of 6.9% over the previous year, and a decrease of 2.7% over the past three years. The average yield per unit area in the cotton basin in the the Yellow River River Basin was 13.1% lower than that in June, down 5.6% from the same period last year, and the output is expected to be 1 million 536 thousand tons, a decrease of 16.3% over the previous year. The average yield per unit area in the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 6.7% compared with June, down 16.1% from the same period last year. The output is expected to be 1 million 37 thousand tons, a decrease of 21.6% over the previous year; the average yield per unit area in the northwest inland cotton area increased by 2.6% over the previous year, a decrease of 3.9% over the same period last year, and the output is expected to be 4 million 478 thousand tons, an increase over the previous year. < /p >
< p > although a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > cotton yield < /a > slightly decreased, but because of the huge number of cotton stocks in last year, the cotton supply exceeding demand is still severe, and the task of storing and storing cotton in the new year is still very arduous. < /p >