Home >

The Growth Of Foreign Trade Is Going Down, And The Trade Structure Needs To Be Optimized.

2013/9/23 21:12:00 24

??? 日本語 Fran?ais English 中文

under the background of international economic and trade situation and domestic economic slowdown, China's foreign trade has maintained a moderate growth since the beginning of this year.

In 1-7 months, the growth rate of imports and exports slowed down gradually, but the trade structure continued to improve.

In the second half of the year, the world economy will be slightly improved. However, the lagging effect of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will appear. Domestic demand will continue to stabilize and slow down. China's foreign trade environment will not change substantially. The growth rate of imports and exports will continue to slow down in the second half of.

In the new round of world trade regional negotiations, China is at a disadvantage and should take the initiative to integrate with the new trends, new standards and new rules of the development of international free trade.

next, we should release the impetus and vitality of economic growth and foreign trade development through reform, pay attention to adjusting the trade structure and strive to achieve the goal of annual trade growth.

the growth rate of foreign trade is decreasing, the trade structure needs to be optimized,

1. the growth rate of import and export has gradually returned to normal from higher growth

In the month of P > 1-7, China's imports and exports grew by 8.5% over the same period last year, slightly better than the same period of last year, of which exports increased by 9.5%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year.

From the monthly trend, the growth rate of imports and exports in the first quarter was higher due to short-term special reasons, especially exports reached 18.4%, higher than the last year and the annual level of more than 10 percentage points. In 4-7 months, the relevant departments strengthened supervision over cross-border capital, re export trade and other fields, so that those trade false behaviors such as "one day tour" and "low price rise" in Hongkong, China were significantly suppressed. Export growth rate fell by month, up 4.2%, and gradually increased with the growth rate of delivery value of industrial exports.

In terms of imports, the slow growth of domestic demand led to slow growth in imports and a 7.3% increase in 1-7 months. In 4-7 months, with the decline in export growth, import growth rate was adjusted to 6.4%, down from 2 percentage points in the first quarter.

As imports grew slower than exports, the trade surplus increased by 33.9% over the same period last year, to $125 billion 720 million.

In the first half of this year, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP shifted from negative to negative last year, contributing 0.9% to GDP and 0.1 percentage points.

2. showing differentiation of import and export of major trading partners

Since the beginning of P, trade growth in China and the United States, Europe, Japan and major emerging economies has also been divided due to the growth of major economies in the world and the disputes over the Diaoyu Islands.

In 1-7 months, China's bilateral trade stability with the United States and ASEAN countries increased by 6.2% and 12.4% respectively. The growth of South Africa's trade in emerging economies was 15.8% and Korea's trade grew by 8.6%, maintaining a good momentum.

because of the severe economic situation in the EU, China's bilateral trade with Europe has dropped by 1-7 in the past 1.8% months. The Diaoyu Islands incident has been escalating, and the trade growth rate between China and Japan has dropped to -8.8%. Russia and other resource-based countries have been affected by negative factors such as the decline in international commodity prices, resulting in poor economic growth and zero growth in Sino Russian trade. Besides, the growth rate of bilateral trade between Mainland China and Hongkong has gradually decreased from "super high speed" to 1-7, and the total growth has increased 34.1%.

Generally speaking, China's exports to the United States, Europe, Japan and other traditional markets continue to slow down, and its dependence is reduced; exports to emerging markets and developing countries such as ASEAN and Africa are speeding up. P

According to the Ministry of commerce data, in the first half of the year, China's exports to the three major traditional markets in the United States, Europe and Japan dropped to 37.6%, the proportion to other export markets rose to 62.4%, and the export market diversification strengthened.

3. products, trade patterns, regional structure and other aspects of continuous improvement,

Under the joint action of the economic and trade development environment at home and abroad, the growth of China's foreign trade has gradually entered the stage of medium speed development, and the pace of pformation and upgrading of foreign trade development mode has been accelerated, and the trade structure is being optimized and improved.

the structure of trade products, the proportion of high value-added products increased further, and the import of resources and energy products increased.

In 1-7 months, the proportion of China's exports of mechanical and electrical products was basically the same as that of the previous year. The proportion of exports of high-tech products increased by 1.6 percentage points. The imports of iron ore, billet and other resource-based products and raw materials increased rapidly, and the proportion of imports of high-tech products and consumer goods increased.

trade pattern structure, due to the increase of labor cost in China, part of the labor-intensive processing trade has been gradually pferred to neighboring countries such as Vietnam and Laos. In recent years, the general trade growth which contributes more to domestic economic growth and value creation is faster than processing trade.

In 1-7 months, China's general trade increased by 11.9%, higher than the average growth rate, while processing trade dropped by 0.4%, and its share in imports and exports continued to decline.

In the western region, with the advantages of industrial pfer and late development, foreign trade grew rapidly. In the first half of the year, the proportion of the central and western regions accounted for 0.3 percentage points of the total export volume, and the eastern region entered the upgrading stage of the export structure. P

4., the soft power of foreign trade has been improved,

with the decrease of demographic dividend, the increase of capital cost and the increase of resources and environment pressure, China has not only declined its potential economic growth rate, but also gradually weakened the traditional cost and price advantages of foreign trade, and the market share of some export products has been eroded by neighboring countries.

Under such circumstances, export-oriented enterprises pay more attention to improving management efficiency, reducing operating costs, and strengthening technological innovation. Meanwhile, government departments strengthen the management of export quality, crack down on export counterfeiting and inferior commodities and infringe intellectual property rights commodities, comprehensively promote the strategy of winning by quality, and improve the soft power of trade exports.

At present, China's independent brand international market, represented by Haier electric appliances and HUAWEI communications, is becoming more and more popular. P

In 1-7 months, the export of private enterprises in China increased by 26.2%, accounting for 4.1 percentage points, to 41.7%.

Moreover, the price of China's main export commodities has increased relative to the overall decline in international market prices.

Customs data show that in the first half of the year, export prices of bags, watches, raw silk and other products increased by more than 10%.

foreign trade has high virtual content. International capital flows are hard to come by.

although the growth rate of China's import and export has been basically stable and slightly improved since the beginning of the year, the situation of "arbitrage trade", "exchange rate fluctuation" and "trade decoupling" in the field of foreign trade have affected the steady development of China's foreign trade.

1. large scale inflow and outflow of hot money interferes with stable export trade

1-5 months, through the trade channels and other channels of arbitrage capital inflow, China's foreign exchange increased to 1 trillion and 580 billion yuan, 3.2 times the whole year.

Since June, the United States announced that it will gradually withdraw from quantitative easing policy, triggering the massive outflow of international short-term capital from emerging economies including China, and the Japanese market.

Large and fast inflow of arbitrage funds has led to the distortion of import and export statistics, interfering with the analysis and judgement of the foreign trade situation and damaging the scientific nature of macroeconomic regulation and control.

The massive capital inflow in the early stage of P promoted the expansion of the shadow banking business, such as financial products and trust products, increased the speculation in the real estate market and increased the risk of accumulating bubbles. The hot money in the late period rapidly flowed out, leading to a tight liquidity in the financial system, a sharp rise in interbank lending rates, and tight credit in the import and export enterprises.

in addition, the uncertainty of short-term capital flow has increased the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. The effective exchange rate of RMB has appreciated for 10 consecutive months and has appreciated by 8.7% since last October. This will seriously weaken the price competitiveness of China's exports.

2. the existence of part of the virtual increasing component in foreign trade is

"P" in the first quarter of this year's export, some export enterprises are more obvious to Hongkong export "one day tour" and "lower out high report" in order to gain the advantages of obtaining the RMB spreads and sinks, obtaining the benefits of export tax rebates, and obtaining the income of financial products in the mainland.

Since April, the state has increased the impact on the "arbitrage export", and the export growth has gradually closer to the actual situation.

according to the import data released by China's major trading partners, Hongkong's imports from mainland China increased by 14.4% in the 1-7 month, and the mainland's exports to Hong Kong increased by 36.1%. The US imports grew by 3.1% in China from 1-5 months in the United States, the growth rate in China's exports to the United States increased by 3.5%; the 1-4 month of EU imports fell by 3% from China, and China's exports to Europe decreased by 0.9%; while the differences between other countries and China's import and export statistics were not very obvious.

It can be seen that the main part of China's export growth is mainly from Hongkong's trade with China.

according to the calculation, the virtual export volume in the month of 1-5 was about US $34 billion, and some of the exports increased by about 9%, which is basically the same as that of the same period last year.

6, the trade growth in July changed somewhat.

It is especially noteworthy that since June, the growth rate of imports from China, such as the United States and South Korea, has been higher than China's announced export growth rate. This shows that China's foreign trade data are still "squeezing water", and the actual growth of foreign trade exports in the next two months may be better than the data show.

3. China's trade with the European and American countries initially showed signs of decoupling

China's exports to developed economies such as the US and Europe have declined, indicating that the structure of foreign trade has improved. P

But this phenomenon also shows that the trade and economic links between the emerging markets represented by China and the developed countries such as the United States and Europe are gradually weakening.

In the first half of this year, the proportion of China's products exported to the traditional developed markets decreased from 40% of the previous year to 37.6%, which may indicate that China's process of decoupling from developed markets in the field of foreign trade is accelerating.

in fact, since 2010, the share of Chinese commodities in the European Union and the US market has declined.

Moreover, with the advance of the free trade agreement between the United States and Europe, the economic and trade exchanges between the developed countries will be further deepened.

For emerging economies implementing the "export oriented strategy", the rapid economic growth of most countries has been inseparable from the import demand of developed countries.

In the face of overcapacity and downward pressure on the economy, if the speed of decoupling from the developed countries' economy and trade is too fast, it will trigger a series of economic problems, such as sharp decline in external demand, overcapacity and worsening employment situation.

the international environment has no obvious improvement. In the future, China's foreign trade will be maintained at medium speed .

in the coming period, the world economic growth is not very optimistic, the contradictions accumulated in the economic field are hard to resolve, and the trend of low growth and high risk will continue; the potential growth rate of domestic economy will decline, the problem of excess capacity will be prominent, and the trend of slowing domestic demand is difficult to change.

It is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade will decline further in the second half of this year. The total export growth will be about 9%, the import growth will be about 7.3%, and the trade balance will reach US $280 billion.

1. the main growth pole of the world economy is divided into /p.

Since the beginning of the P, although there has been no fundamental change in the trend of global economic improvement, there are some positive signs in the world economy. The economic situation of developed and emerging economies is divided.

The US GDP in the second quarter was revised from 1.7% to 2.5%, significantly better than expected. At the same time, due to the revision of the statistical standards, GDP growth is expected to pick up in the second half of this year, which will affect the world economic growth expectation and drive the other countries' economic recovery to a certain extent. However, the "fiscal reduction" and "withdrawal from QE" will still have an inhibitory effect on the US economic growth, and there is uncertainty in the economic recovery.

GDP growth in the two quarter of the euro area was 0.3%, the first increase since the fourth quarter of 2011. However, the financial situation of various countries has not yet reached the target, the government expenditure is still tight, financial credit is in a state of contraction, the unemployment rate is not showing signs of improvement, and the possibility of economic recession is not ruled out.

emerging economies are generally slowing down due to overcapacity, slowing external demand and financial risks.

New demand for global energy and raw materials has slowed down, and resource exporters such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa have been hit and the economy is running low.

Under the stimulation of ultra loose monetary policy, the consumption and export situation has improved, and economic growth has improved in P.

In July, IMF lowered world economic growth expectations to 3.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the April report, cut the growth rate of emerging economies by 0.3 percentage points to 5%, and speed up the growth of the developed economies by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%.

2. China is in an unfavorable position in the new round of world trade regional negotiations.

At present, the process of traditional WTO multilateral trade negotiation is blocked, and the new wave of regional trade liberalization has sprung up gradually. P

The content of negotiations under different trading systems is more focused on Trade and investment, trade in services and investment agreements.

Especially since this year, negotiations on TISA (International Service Trade Agreement), TPP (p Pacific (601099, stock bar) partnership agreement) and TTIP (p the Atlantic (600558, stock bar) trade and investment partnership agreement) have been accelerated.

The higher standard international free trade agreement puts forward stricter requirements and regulations in terms of frame, content and meaning.

for example, most TISA negotiation participants have no foreign shareholding or business scope restrictions in finance, securities and legal services.

China's policies in these areas still remain under the traditional WTO multilateral trading framework. Banks, securities, insurance (Fang Xinbao), telecommunications and other industries have retained many measures to restrict foreign investment in the last round of accession to the WTO negotiations, and lack of basic rules for participation in TISA negotiations.

TPP and TTIP negotiations were excluded from China due to international politics and other reasons.

At present, China is in a relatively passive position in the new round of regional free trade negotiations.

3. increased international capital flows led to global commodity price volatility

international short-term capital inflows into emerging economies, including China, at the beginning of the year, causing some countries to rise in capital market prices, such as real estate and stock markets.

However, since May, global financial market volatility has intensified. In particular, the United States announced that it would withdraw from the QE plan ahead of time, leading to long-term interest rates in the developed economies. The sovereign debt spreads of the countries in the euro area have picked up again, triggering international capital turning, and emerging economies being hit by capital outflows, asset prices, bond interest rates and financial system shocks.

on the one hand, the major developed countries have implemented ultra loose monetary policy successively, some developing countries have been forced to cut interest rates, the global currency has a trend of over development, exacerbating the possibility of large-scale international capital flows; on the other hand, the geopolitical tension such as the Syria crisis and the economic powers such as the United States, Russia and Ross are involved, which will lead to global financial market volatility and increase the uncertainty of cross-border capital flows.

Under this background, the price of major commodities such as crude oil and gold will be widely oscillated in the future, and the price fluctuation of iron ore, grain and other resources, raw materials and agricultural products will be driven by P.

The large-scale cross-border movement of international capital, the instability of the global financial market and the volatility of commodity prices have led to the increase of the exchange rate of major currencies, which is not conducive to the stable operation of China's foreign trade.

4. the domestic macro-economic operation has remained basically stable

Since the beginning of this year, the economic operation has basically been in a stable position with the decline of the potential economic growth rate in the medium and long term, the short period of infrastructure investment guided by the political cycle and the end of the inventory cycle, and the slow recovery of the economy. The demand side and supply side are relatively stable and the prices are relatively moderate. "P"

In the second half of the year, the new contradictions and new problems in the economic operation will increase the pressure of economic downturn, while infrastructure investment and enterprise inventory recharge will promote economic growth in the second half of the year. P

Generally speaking, China's investment and consumption demand will increase moderately, and the macro-economy will be in a steady growth at medium speed, which is conducive to the steady growth of China's foreign trade imports.

5. the lagging effect of RMB appreciation is gradually showing up

RMB exchange rate is an important factor affecting import and export trend.

According to the bank for International Settlements, the RMB effective exchange rate index in July was 117.24, up nearly 1 percentage points from June, rising for ten consecutive months, hitting a record high.

China's RMB real effective exchange rate has risen sharply, but at the same time, Japan and most emerging market countries are choosing currency devaluation strategies to resist the adverse effects of the decline in export commodity price competitiveness.

in the case of the rising cost of labor, capital and environmental factors and the weakening of international competitiveness of labor-intensive products, the continued strength of exchange rate will further reduce the profit margins of enterprises' exports.

Although the current international short-term capital outflow phenomenon will alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation to a certain extent, considering that the appreciation of the exchange rate has a certain lag in the trade impact, it is expected that the impact will gradually appear in the second half of this year and will become an important factor restricting export growth.

6., promoting the steady growth of import and export policy support.

no matter from the spring Canton fair paction data or from the current export index, the future export situation is not optimistic.

In response to this situation, the relevant departments clearly put forward the policy of increasing stability in foreign trade, and striving to "provide enterprises with both conducive to steady growth and structural adjustment, which is conducive to stabilizing exports and expanding imports. It is not only conducive to reducing export costs, but also conducive to opening up new markets and giving full play to the trade environment of technology, brand, quality and service."