The RMB Appreciation Has Broken Record, And The RMB Exchange Rate Market Was Put Forward In The Third Plenary Session Of The 18Th CPC Central Committee.

The decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on a number of major issues in deepening the reform adopted by < p > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee > /a put forward that we should improve the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate marketization and speed up the Marketization of interest rates.

This year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated by about 2.5%.

Experts pointed out that with the further deepening of China's reform, the confidence of the international market for China's economic recovery has increased, and the impetus of foreign capital inflow has promoted the appreciation of RMB continuously.

In the short term, the RMB appreciation against the US dollar in the year will be limited. In the long run, the RMB to the US dollar will enter the "5 era".

< /p >

< p > November 18th, the interbank foreign exchange market RMB < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > exchange rate < /a > the median price is 1 yuan against RMB 6.1332 yuan.

< /p >

< p > for the recent trend of RMB, analysts pointed out that in the exchange rate market, the contrast between China and the United States reappeared and eventually formed the current exchange rate trend.

< /p >

In the US and P, in September and October, there were two opportunities to withdraw from quantitative easing.

Yellen, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, made clear in his hearing of the next Federal Reserve Chairman's nomination that it will continue to push the Federal Reserve's ultra loose monetary policy until policymakers are convinced that the economy can continue to recover and continue to drive job growth.

"I believe that supporting economic recovery is the most reliable way to return to a more normal monetary policy. I think it is necessary to make every effort to promote a strong economic recovery."

< /p >

In P, domestic purchasing managers index and other economic data have been improving for several months, which boosted market confidence in RMB.

The closing of the the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee concluded the many benefits of deepening the reform in an all-round way. The market was deeply encouraged, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was "one jump".

< /p >

< p > from the beginning of this year, the appreciation rate of RMB to the US dollar exchange rate is about 2.5%, and the appreciation of last year is only 1%.

This year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has reached a record high. In the first 5 months, the appreciation rate of RMB has reached 1.0954%. In addition to the expectation of depreciation in June, the RMB appreciated 4 times in April, 11 times in August, and 5 in October.

< /p >

Market participants generally predict that the value of the renminbi will continue to appreciate in the end of this year to the first half of next year.

However, the industry has different opinions on the appreciation rate.

It is predicted by professional bodies that the RMB exchange rate entering "5" will be a big probability event at the end of this year.

< /p >

< p > "in the next 1~3 years, the RMB exchange rate will remain volatile and the fluctuation will increase."

Wang Jianhui, deputy general manager of the securities research and development department, is studying the long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate.

In the short term, there is limited room for significant appreciation during the year.

< /p >

< p > on the one hand, there are few market themes for the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar: the US side has factors such as maintaining quantitative easing, and so on. The positive effects of China's domestic macroeconomic data and the reform of information release have been released.

< /p >

< p > on the other hand, the exchange rate is approaching the limit of the affordability of export enterprises.

Wang Jianhui said that China's export enterprises have been faced with multiple pressures such as market shrinkage and rising costs. If the RMB appreciation is too fast, it will be overburdened.

On the whole, the exchange rate bottom line of most export enterprises should be between 5.8~5.9.

< /p >

< p > Wang Jianhui pointed out that even if pformation and upgrading of enterprises, foster new competitive advantage takes time and space.

If the RMB appreciation is too fast, it will be prone to cracks and damage Chinese enterprises and markets.

< /p >

< p > basically, people expect to improve the mechanism of RMB exchange rate marketization as soon as possible.

< /p >

The decision on major issues of comprehensive deepening reform adopted in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee P pointed out that we should improve the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate marketization, speed up the marketization of interest rates, and improve the yield curve of treasury bonds reflecting market supply and demand.

We should promote two-way opening of the capital market, improve the convertibility of cross-border capital and financial pactions in an orderly way, establish and improve the foreign debt and capital flow management system under the framework of macro Prudential Management, and accelerate the realization of convertibility of Renminbi capital items.

"At present, as far as the quantitative degree of the developed countries is concerned, the renminbi will continue to push up the possibility."

Wen bin, executive director of macroeconomic research at Bank of China and executive deputy editor of the international a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > Finance < /a >, expects that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will remain at 6.1 from the annual average.

< /p >