Jufeng Observation: Reform Has Spawned Bull Market

< p > the "Xi Li new deal" should be summed up in a few short words. I think it should be "power and decentralization".

The right to collect is the power of local officials and the monopoly of state-owned enterprises. Decentralization is the right of money, finance, judicial restraint and private capital. Between the two sides, the style of Reagan and Thatcher is quite obvious.

From the perspective of monetary policy, tightening is an important common feature.

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< p > first look at Reagan reform in the US in 1980s.

The background of Reagan a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > reform < /a > is stagflation in 70s, while the economic growth rate is negative in 1980, inflation has two figures.

China's current situation is similar, its growth rate has dropped, and its currency has exceeded. The previous Keynes's 70s has been similar to that of the domestic investment in the past 10 years.

Reagan's election victory came out on the night of November 4, 1980, and Dow Jones rose from second to 983 on the 937 day.

In the 7 months before, Dow Jones rose from 730 to 900.

Premier Li's press conference will fully explain the ruling idea around March, and the gem is out of the big market.

The Shanghai Composite Index also went out of the 1949 to 2444 market from the end of 2012 to April 2013.

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< p > February 1981, the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/ "economic" /a "revival plan" put forward by Reagan to Congress is the product of the combination of two schools' theory of supply and monetarism. It embodies the main contents of Reagan's economics.

The main points of the plan are: (1) reduce financial expenditure (excluding military expenditure), especially social welfare expenditure, reduce the budget deficit, and achieve budgetary balance by 1984.

(2) large scale tax cuts, enterprises to accelerate the cost recovery system, and so on, giving enterprises preferential tax.

(3) to relax the government's restrictions on enterprise rules and regulations and reduce state intervention in enterprises.

(4) we must strictly control the growth of money supply and implement a stable monetary policy to curb inflation.

These policies are the same as the tight money, tax reduction and market reform of Xi Li.

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< p > is precisely the policy to control the growth of money supply. There was a sharp decline from July 1981 to November 1982. Dow Jones fell from 1000 in July to 770 in August second, with a span of 1 years.

Li Xinzheng's index of money shortage caused by tight money has also lowered the Shanghai Composite Index from 2444 in February to 1849 in June, with a span of 4 months.

The resolutions of the Third Plenary Session tend to be more tax cutting, SOE reform and market-oriented reform. Market expectations also shift from 1849 to 2078 intervals to 2250 intervals.

Looking back at the Dow Jones index, the 770 point in August 1982 is the beginning of the US 17 years and the index from three figures to five figures.

Then, the 1849 point of the Shanghai Composite Index, the market fall caused by tight money caused by reform, will become the starting point of China's bull market?

As for the last drop before the bull market with a view, has 1849 fallen? < /p >

< p > look at the reform of Thatcher in the same period. First, in the policy of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > currency < /a >, Mrs. Thatcher pursued the monetarist policy led by Professor Freedman of the Chicago school, tightening public expenditure, controlling the money supply and raising interest rates to curb inflation.

Second, the privatization policy of state-owned enterprises.

Mrs Thatcher sold large quantities of shares of state owned enterprises to individuals, encouraged private capital to enter the forbidden area which was originally invested by the state, and sold large quantities of public housing to local governments, so that the number of households with private ownership increased significantly.

It also abolished the price control commission, narrowed down the power of the state enterprise Council, and abolished more than 180 regulations restricting economic activities, especially abolishing the foreign exchange control regulations for forty years, allowing the exchange rate of the pound to float freely, in order to give greater play to the regulatory role of market and competition.

Third, we should reform the tax system, lower tax rates, reduce public expenditure on education, health care and social welfare, and expand the market economy in the field of public goods provision.

The biggest similarity in the reform of Xi Li is the reform of state-owned enterprises.

Although the FTSE 100 index was compiled in 1984, we could not see the detailed market situation similar to that announced by Dow Jones, but from 1984's trend, it also opened the bull market in the vicinity from 1000 to 7000.

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Since P has returned to China and has stock market history, Zhu Rongji's reform in 90s of last century can be analogous to the reform of domestic economy and the reform of Xi Li.

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< p > this process is more complicated. The time for the reform can be 12 years from Zhu Rongji's deputy prime minister in 1991 to 3 years in 2003.

Judging from the big market, the Shanghai Composite Index has maintained an upward trend from the 100 point listed on the market to 1500 in 2003.

Zhu Rongji's reform policy contains quite a lot of contents. Tax distribution, exchange reform and state-owned enterprise reform are three major items. The reform of Chinese enterprises has the most direct impact on the stock market.

In September 28, 1995, in the fifth Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee, the CPC adopted the "Central Committee of the Communist Party of China" on formulating the "95" plan for national economic and social development and the vision for 2010, and put forward new ideas for the reform of state-owned enterprises, and announced the implementation of the reform strategy of "catching the big and letting the small".

The so-called small business is to sell small and medium-sized state-owned enterprises with poor performance and non pillar support to the private sector in the name of "shut down and turn around". If no one wants to, they will go bankrupt.

The 98 year financial crisis has pformed the strategy of "catching up and letting go" into "national retreat" and "go forward" strategy.

In 2003, the reform of state-owned enterprises took the battle of Langgu as a landmark event.

From the point of time, from 1995 to 1998, the most critical three years of the reform of state-owned enterprises, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 800 to 500 in 1996 October, which was affected by the government's rectification of the market.

Then it opened up nearly 5 times the index from February 1996 to June 2001.

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< p > to return to the present moment, what I value most is Li Xinzheng's reform of the market and the reform of state-owned enterprises, which directly improves the efficiency of China's economic production.

The stock market is both a means and a beneficiary in reform.

With the development environment of private enterprises improving and the development of de administration, gem will continue to take the bull.

Blue chips are just beginning to deepen with the initiative in terms of production capacity, improvement of governance structure, continued dividend rate, preferred stock and enterprise annuity.

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< p > Daniel market has already opened its curtain.

Prepare for a new era of reform.

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