Investment: At The End Of The Year, No Drama Can Be Sung. The Re Layout Is Still Heavy And Heavy.

< p > last week, the market continued to decline, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112107102" > industry plate < /a > general fall characteristics were more significant.

Among them, medicine, electronics, food, clothing, computers and other industries are relatively resilient, automobile, home appliances, military industry, media, nonferrous metals, construction, real estate and other industries in the forefront of the decline.

In the short term, the financial position is still a key factor affecting the performance of the market this week. Although the central bank has launched a fire fighting campaign, its effect is limited, and the expected rate of capital will continue to be tight.

< /p >

< p > < strong > tight funds, continue to suppress the stock market < /strong > < /p >

Last week, money market interest rates rose all the way up to P.

Whether interbank pledge, interest rate or Shibor interest rate rose to the highest level since the end of June this year, and the interest rate over 6 months was much higher than the end of June.

Capital shortage has become a major problem in the current market.

< /p >

< p > from the point of view of the supply and demand of funds, the marketization of interest rate has been pushed forward rapidly, resulting in the continuous rising of capital costs. The high risk of high interest rate non-standard products is hidden, which has led to the continuous soaring of capital interest rates.

< /p >

At the bank level, the banks at the end of the year rush to scale based on the time point assessment. They often only receive loans, resulting in the accumulation of funds, the decline of money multipliers and the reduction of money supply. Two, the Spring Festival is earlier this year, and is closer to new year's day. Banks must prepare more funds for enterprises to issue wages and bonuses, and also have to leave more cash for residents to celebrate holidays. P

Therefore, banks need money instead of money, resulting in tight funds.

< /p >

< p > stock market funds. At the end of the year, it is also the time when annual a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112107107" > investment institution < /a > for annual settlement. Some stock earnings need to be cashed to lock in this year's earnings, and the stock will sell strongly, which will bring some pressure to the market.

After selling stocks, the funds are not rushing back to the stock market because of the high interest rate in the money market, which also leads to the shrinking of stock market funds.

< /p >

< p > however, the financial stress may be alleviated to a certain extent.

< /p >

< p > aiming at the new changes in the money market at the end of this year, the central bank has injected more than 300 billion yuan of liquidity into the market through the SLO (short-term liquidity adjustment tool) last week for 3 consecutive days. At present, the excess payment of the banking system has exceeded 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan, which is relatively high for the same period of history.

The central bank also indicated that it has prompted major commercial banks to rationally adjust their assets and liabilities structure and enhance the scientificity and foresight of liquidity management.

This shows that the central bank's initiative to ease financial tensions is obvious in order to avoid the excessive financial strain at the end of June.

< /p >

< p > from the stock market, the SFC said it would support enterprise annuity and occupational annuity to actively participate in capital market investment through professional asset management institutions, so as to realize the preservation and appreciation of fund assets.

In the next stage, the SFC will continue to accelerate all kinds of long-term funds into the market, and strive to promote the benign interaction development of all kinds of long-term funds and capital markets.

< /p >

< p > from the behavior of market organization, the settlement time of some institutions is not the last day. The nearer to the end of the year, the less pressure will be met on the cashing proceeds. On the contrary, some institutions may be funded by heavy capital stocks.

Therefore, the financial strain may be alleviated to some extent, though it may not be completely relieved before the Spring Festival.

< /p >

< p > < strong > 2014, investment should be cautious, safety first, < /strong > < /p >

< p > for the coming 2014, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112107108" > macroeconomy < /a > growth rate or slight decline, from the introduction of reform measures to market clearing, then to the reconfiguration of production factors and the release of dividend, all need a process.

Now that the market clearing is a slow process, it is even more time to hope to meet the new round of economic growth cycle through the release of dividend reform.

< /p >

< p > investment and asset allocation, we believe that we should be cautious and secure.

Safety has two meanings: first, we should pay attention to risk prevention and appropriately increase the allocation of the leading industry in the underestimation industry: two, we are relatively optimistic about safety related topics, including three levels of security themes, including national defense, military technology, information security, security and so on, and life and production safety, including modern agriculture, food, medicine, intelligent equipment, 3D printing, and so on, including ecological, environmental protection, new energy and new energy vehicles.

In addition, the reform of state-owned enterprises will be an important investment theme next year, which needs attention.

< /p >

< p > in the short term, stocks with a relatively large early fall may rebound relatively strongly, but more attention should be paid to the layout for the first quarter of next year.

Specific to this week, the stock index has rebounded, but the probability of showing a small fluctuation is larger.

However, if there is a rebound, the stocks with a big decline in the early stage may rebound relatively strongly, but investors should pay more attention to the investment layout next year, especially in the first quarter.

The steady growth industries such as agriculture, medicine, food, textiles and clothing, leading companies in underestimation of non bank finance, petrochemicals, natural gas, automobiles and electricity, and high-quality companies in the growing industries such as military industry, environmental protection, intelligent equipment and electronics are of great concern.

< /p >