Gold Futures Are Mixed With Gold.

< p > gold prices continue to go down, and the "double festival" is coming.

By visiting several gold shops in Changchun, we saw a continuous stream of consumers.

According to < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112105 > > Lao Fengxiang < /a > Jindian salesperson, the people who buy gold ornaments at the end of the year are far beyond the daily routine." before Christmas, 50 new pairs of gold earrings were introduced into the store, and more than 20 pairs were sold in two days. "

< /p >

< p > gold jewelry is very popular, but as an investment product, most investors are "just holding the market."

"At the end of the year, friends and family have spare money, and they ask me if I should invest in gold."

"But unlike last April's" gold rush ", more people are no longer blindly entering the market, but they are on the sidelines.

< /p >

"P", according to a customer manager of the Jilin provincial branch of China Construction Bank, said that gold sales will increase every year at the end of the year, but most of the consumers "just don't pay attention" this year.

"A lot of people have the mentality of" buying up but not buying down ", and fear that gold prices will continue to fall after entering the market.

< /p >

< p > the reason why investors have this attitude has to go back to the overall performance of gold prices in 2013.

Data show that in 2013 gold prices fell nearly 30%, the largest annual decline in 30 years.

< /p >

< p > in 2013, in addition to a rebound of 20% in 7~8 months, it ended with a record of refreshing the "new low".

Since April 12th, the market has fallen off the cliff, continuing to June, becoming the biggest decline stage in the whole year.

Although the "Chinese aunt" has been shocked by the market, but with the further decline of gold prices, it is still difficult to change the situation of "bear" market.

In December, gold prices repeatedly fell below the support point of US $1200 / ounce.

< /p >

< p > < strong > 2014 gold price is facing a continuous concussion < /strong > < /p >

< p > according to industry analysis, the main factor that led to the decline in gold in 2013 is the strengthening of the US dollar.

Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve has launched three rounds of quantitative easing policy to reverse the economic downturn.

At present, US employment, inflation and other economic indicators all indicate that the economy will be in the recovery trend, and the process of quantitative easing is about to shrink. This will inevitably lead to a rise in the dollar price. Not only is gold, but the trend of commodity prices in the US dollar will be more volatile.

< /p >

< p > recently, the world economic and political book released by the world economic and Political Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: the 2014 World economic situation analysis and forecast, also predicted that the global gold price in 2014 will continue to decline in the fluctuation.

< /p >

< p > according to Peng Bo, an analyst of Huachang securities nonferrous metals industry, the US government started a round of QE reduction in mid 12 2013. Although the amplitude is lower than the market expectation, it also released the signal that QE will continue to shrink. At this point, the gold price trend in 2014 is not optimistic, and once the QE reduction process accelerates, gold will continue to face a continuous concussion.

< /p >

< p > Northeast Securities analyst Chen Binghui also believes that the downward trend of gold prices is not yet over.

In addition to the turning point of liquidity policy, from the medium to long term, the market is optimistic about the US economic growth prospects. < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112108" > US Treasury bonds < /a > yields are rising. Under the background of low inflation expectations, the real rate of return is rising, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Moreover, under the premise that the US stock index's rising trend is better, investors have also reduced interest in gold which is not worth living.

"But there is no need to be too pessimistic. As a commodity, gold affects its price in addition to the macro factors such as the US dollar trend and so on."

Peng Bo said, "according to the calculation, the cost line of gold is 1000~1200 US dollars / ounce.

No matter how QE is reduced, it is not easy for gold prices to fall below these two very strong supporting positions for some time.

Therefore, it is preliminarily judged that gold prices in 2014 should be oscillating near two supporting positions.

< /p >

< p > < strong > other financial products can also be concerned with < /strong > < /p >.

< p > "at present, the scale of gold ETF keeps decreasing, and the situation of investors fleeing gold ETF is still continuing."

Chen Binghui said.

< /p >

"P", experts say frankly, gold prices continue to decline, this time is not a good time to enter the market.

At present, the gold products provided by banks are similar to physical gold, virtual gold and some gold products launched by the concept of "fixed investment gold", which are not suitable for holding in the medium to long term bearish market.

< /p >

< p > Bai Xia suggests that retail investors of gold should grasp the technical analysis methods such as K-line chart and find the right price according to gold price, trend line or technical index, and the gold price fluctuation should not be regarded as a single judgment index for entering the arena.

In the gold market downturn, we can also pay attention to other financial products.

< /p >

< p > "from the perspective of liquidity, monetary fund and bond funds with better market performance are also good choices for investors."

"In the medium to long term, the possibility of a stronger US dollar is greater. From the perspective of asset allocation, investors can invest in US dollars appropriately," he said.

< /p >

< p > Peng Bo suggested that investors should pay more attention to the macro-economy. If we find that the global economy, especially the US, will accelerate, the gold trend will not be ideal.

< /p >

< p > in addition, she pointed out that the main function of gold is to avoid risks and preserve value.

As a hedge, when the economic situation is better, investment should be focused on other products; as a tool to resist inflation, if the economic recovery is accompanied by high inflation, gold will probably fall.

Therefore, investors should pay close attention to the two indicators of economic growth and < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112107" > inflation < /a >. If the two achieve balance, gold prices may rebound in the short term.

< /p >