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A Good Start In The Whole Year'S Red Foreign Trade Can Support The Stock Market.

2014/2/25 11:38:00 30

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China'S Foreign Trade Foreign Trade Situation A Share Market Stock Fund Ministry Of Commerce

at the end of last year, when looking at the prospect of China's economy this year, almost all the economists did not take much interest in import and export. However, the January 2014 a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_z.asp" > foreign trade data < /a > just exceeded the expectation of most market participants: the total value of imports and exports was 2 trillion and 340 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3% compared with the same period last year, of which 1 trillion and 270 billion yuan was exported, an increase of 7.6%; imports 1 trillion and 70 billion yuan, an increase of 7%; the trade surplus was 194 billion 850 million yuan, an expansion of 11%.

In dollar terms, the total import and export value in January was 382 billion 400 million, an increase of 10.3%, of which exports were US $207 billion 130 million, an increase of 10.6%; imports of US $175 billion 270 million, an increase of 10%; the trade surplus of US $31 billion 860 million, an increase of 14%.

Less than P, what is even more difficult is that the high growth rate of foreign trade in January this year is not based on the base of last year's low growth or negative growth, but based on the same high growth base of last year.

Therefore, the rapid and strong growth of China's foreign trade in January this year has become increasingly prominent.

what factors support such a prominent foreign trade data? Can this "open door" foreign trade situation run through the whole year?

P, the Spring Festival is not over yet. Ouyang Xin can't wait to get back to Kunshan from his hometown and collate customer information and prepare for the horse year.

Ouyang Xin's company is small in scale. Its main business is children's dining chair and household products. After signing orders with supermarkets such as Germany and Britain, the company will find suitable manufacturers to produce and export them in China.

From order, production, quality to customs clearance, Ouyang Xin is watching closely.

"business was a bit difficult in the past few years, and I even went back to my hometown for two months.

Since last year, things have improved and orders have begun to recover. It is expected that 2014 will be better.

When I was in my hometown, I had received many calls from foreign customers, and I needed to add orders. I was very busy recently.

Ouyang Xin told reporters.

the export and export data just released in January of 2014 recently handed out the first beautiful report card of the new year.

In February 12th, the General Administration of Customs announced the import and export data in January, the growth rate increased considerably compared with December last year, and far exceeded market expectations.

according to customs statistics, in January, the total value of < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_z.asp" > China's import and export < /a > was 2 trillion and 340 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports of 1 trillion and 270 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6% over the same period, and imports of 1 trillion and 70 billion yuan, an increase of 7% over the previous year, with a trade surplus of 194 billion 850 million yuan and an expansion of 11%.

In dollar terms, in January, China's imports and exports amounted to 382 billion 400 million US dollars, an increase of 10.3%.

Among them, exports amounted to 207 billion 130 million US dollars, an increase of 10.6%; imports of US $175 billion 270 million, an increase of 10%; the trade surplus expanded by 14%, and the growth rate of imports and exports exceeded 10%.

Import and export "exceeding expectations" /p >

According to the data released by the customs and Excise Department of China (P), China's exports in January increased by 10.6% over the same period last year, up from 4.3% in December 2013, which is far ahead of economists' expectations.

Analysts believe that this data is very strong, to a large extent reflects the recovery of developed countries, especially Europe,

besides the beautiful national trade data, local edition data are also booming.

Nanjing Customs recently released data: in January this year, the import and export volume of Jiangsu reached 293 billion 120 million yuan, an increase of 9.1% over the same period last year, 1.8 percentage points higher than the national average.

Of which, exports were 176 billion 910 million yuan, an increase of 9.9%, and imports of 116 billion 210 million yuan, an increase of 8.1%.

It is worth noting that, while the growth of foreign investment enterprises' imports and exports is weak, the import and export of private enterprises similar to "Ouyang Xin" have increased significantly, showing strong vitality.

Private enterprises have steadily increased their imports and exports to the main markets such as the European Union and the United States, while also increasing substantially in the emerging markets in the Middle East.

In January, Jiangsu's growth in imports and exports to the European Union (28 countries) was 10%, an increase of 8.2% in the US and an increase of 50.6% in the Middle East (17 countries).

In export products, electromechanical products grew steadily, and traditional labor intensive products such as garments, textile yarns, fabrics and products, footwear and other products increased significantly.

"data is beyond everyone's expectations, and it is reasonable."

Yang Delong, chief strategist of the southern fund, told reporters in an interview with the international finance daily.

Yang Delong believes that the reason for the above prediction is that the global economy is starting to recover, and the recovery in Europe and America is relatively strong, which has led to the growth of exports. From the domestic factors, the demand for domestic economy in January is bigger and the recovery of imports has been driven up. Import and export data have positive support for economic recovery.

Zhang Hongbo, chief strategist of Wells Fargo fund, told reporters in the international finance daily that the continuous improvement of export data is sustainable, but it will enhance the short-term economic stability expectation, maintain the stability of RMB exchange rate and reduce cross-border capital outflow. P

In terms of specific analysis, the number of developed countries in Europe and the United States increased significantly, including exports to the United States increased by 10.7%, to the European Union increased to 16%, exports to emerging markets improved, exports to ASEAN increased by 18.4%, and Brazil increased by 31.9%; in January, the trade surplus expanded to 31 billion 900 million US dollars, and the pressure of RMB depreciation would be alleviated in the near future. In January and February, foreign exchange occupying continued to rise; in February, exports could continue to maintain a high level, but the trade surplus was less than that of January.

On the whole, export data are significantly higher than expected, favorable funds flow stability, liquidity improvement and ease of economic slowdown.

"P > China Central Europe Fund Investment Research Department related personage to" international finance daily "reporter said, import and export data strong, indicating that China's economy is in recovery.

The sharp increase in export data was mainly due to a strong rebound in exports to Europe, America and Japan.

Since the beginning of last year, these developed economies have shown a steady recovery trend, and the enhancement of future external demand will form a strong guarantee for China's exports.

In terms of import data, strong performance shows that China's domestic demand is still strong, and domestic consumption is steadily rising.

At the same time, the expansion of trade surplus and the relative stability of the RMB exchange rate will lead to an upward trend in foreign exchange holdings, and more foreign exchange inflows will expand the base money.

Combined with the above factors, monetary policy can not be relaxed in the short term.

it is worth noting that the main reason why exports were better than expected in January was basically "full bloom" of foreign exports.

Exports to developed economies such as Europe, Japan and other countries are strong.

Exports to Japan also increased by 16.1%.

In addition, exports to emerging market countries are still improving.

Under the influence of high base last year, export growth to ASEAN still rose sharply by 5 percentage points to 18.4%.

from the perspective of export commodities, the export of labour intensive products increased by 16.1% in January, which is the main driving force for export growth in January.

Last year, the high base of trade arbitrage depressed the growth rate of export of high-tech and mechanical and electrical products to a certain extent. The growth rate in January was only 2.4%.

the beginning of the year is "red all year" .

we must face up to the fact that China's trade figures in January are better than expected, but the trend in January can not represent the whole year.

The current international economic structure is bound to see the pressure on China's foreign trade stability and development in the next two to two years, and the fluctuation is also greater than that of /p.

despite the fact that foreign trade achieved a good start in January, reporters found from the interview that these figures do not mean that foreign trade will be "red throughout the year".

> a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_z.asp" > Mei Xinyu, an associate researcher of the Ministry of Commerce, < /a > International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute, said in an interview that although the trade figures in January were better than expected, the trend of one month in January could not represent the whole year.

It is estimated that the pressure of foreign trade stability and development is still large and fluctuating in the next two years, and the pressure and fluctuation mainly come from the trading partners of emerging market economies.

Because emerging markets account for nearly half of China's foreign trade, both exports and imports, this risk pressure can not be underestimated.

"import growth of China's primary products is a good thing, but its side effects in the short term can not be ignored. The biggest side effect is the pressure of" price destruction "on China's domestic similar industries. Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Northeast China and other domestic agricultural mineral resources will suffer a great impact on their economies of origin. Meanwhile, China's exports to primary products producing countries will also suffer certain losses.

If China adjusts its cotton trade and price policy, it is estimated that China's cotton imports will also increase significantly.

Faced with this situation, if the government and the masses of some resource producing areas in the northwest fail to get rid of the populist trend of thought as soon as possible, the economic outlook for the next few years is not optimistic.

Mei Xin Yu said.

Gao Honghua, chief economist of Everbright Baode trust fund, said in an interview with "international finance daily" that in January, the import and export data were unexpectedly strong in the year, and there were the Spring Festival factors and the high base number due to false trade last year. P

However, the growth rate of exports in January was still faster than expected, indicating that the situation of external demand improvement is more clear.

In the context of PMI rising in developed economies such as the US, Europe and Japan, there will still be room for improvement in China's exports in the future.

However, considering that the pulling force of exports to domestic economic growth is still weak, domestic economic growth still faces greater downside risks before steady growth does not materiality again.

in addition, Zhang Hongbo said that the US manufacturing and employment data showed poor performance in January. The Fed accelerated the QE exit rhythm and led to the turmoil in the emerging economies during the Spring Festival. Last year, the influence of arbitrage funds continued until April.

Moreover, in January, better export did not rule out the possibility of export declarations due to Spring Festival.

Therefore, in the short term, the probability of slow down in import and export growth is bigger than that in the short term.

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Gao Honghua P further indicated that the global economic environment is still uncertain. Especially in developed countries, the era of ultra loose monetary policy has gradually passed, and the loose monetary policy environment has been gradually recovered, and the negative impact on emerging market countries has already appeared, such as capital flight and currency devaluation.

Moreover, the proportion of emerging market countries in China's exports has increased significantly compared with the past. (the proportion of exports to the other four BRICs countries rose from 4.5% in 2006 to 6.9% in 2013, and the proportion of exports to ASEAN countries rose from 7.4% in 2006 to 11.1% in 2013).

the data of import and export growth in a single month will fluctuate greatly, which will be affected by many factors such as trade policy, trade friction, holiday effect, order period and confirmation of statistical time. It will cause greater noise interference. Therefore, it is not rigorous enough to judge only one month's data, especially when contrary to other data.

Gao Honghua said.

> a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_z.asp" > A shares < /a > "downwind straight up". /p >

stock selection is still inseparable from the judgement of the prosperity of the industry.

At present, the pformation and subversion of traditional industries by the Internet and mobile Internet has become the trend of the times. For some traditional industries, it can even be said that it has never changed.

Under the influence of "P", how should the A share market be interpreted? For the 2014 investment market, the reporters found that although fund managers have different preferences, they are generally optimistic about the market.

As a barometer of the real economy, the A share market has always been ahead of its performance. The international finance daily interviewed several fund managers. Under the premise of a fundamental optimism for the market, the differentiation of the market and the plate has become the focus of attention.

"imports increased by 10% in January, much higher than the 4% expected by the market, mainly in the import of bulk raw materials, such as iron ore, crude copper and steel, which increased by more than 15%. Imports have important antecedent significance for future exports, indicating that the upstream industry is still optimistic about the future market."

Tan Pengwan, manager of Xincheng deep value fund, said in an interview with reporters, "this also means that this year's stock market is growing in good quality."

in addition, Tan Pengwan said that the economic downturn does not affect the vigorous development of emerging industries, but highlights its value in the future economic development.

While the overall liquidity is tight and the overall trend of the economy is difficult to pick up, the growth style of the company will be the focus of attention.

But he also said that the theme investment opportunities in 2014 were no longer so good, and the performance of individual stocks would be divided.

Investment should return to normal mentality and return to the selection industry and stocks.

At present, steady growth and structural adjustment will continue to create negative profits for the cyclical industry. Compared with the new economic sectors that meet the strategic objectives of economic pformation, there are good investment opportunities and worth digging.

Chen Yangfan, the fund manager of Xingquan light asset fund, told the International Financial Daily reporter that 2014 will be "very challenging". P

Chen Yangfan believes that the differentiation of stocks will become more obvious this year, and the importance of research will be further highlighted. Stock selection will become the top priority in deciding the outcome.

Even in the best industry segments, there will be a phased change in the leading role. The investment effect between stocks is quite different.

Chen Yangfan also said that stock selection is inseparable from the judgement of the prosperity of the industry.

At present, the pformation and subversion of traditional industries by the Internet and mobile Internet is the trend of the times. For some traditional industries, it can even be said that it has never changed.

For example, the impact and pformation of Internet Finance on traditional financial industry has brought about great investment opportunities.

< a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_z.asp > stock fund > /a > fund manager Gui Zhiqiang believes that this year's investment needs more data.

Gui Zhiqiang analysis, from the theme plate added in 2013, the theme of people's livelihood related investment is more than half and the increase is astonishing, among which investment in online games, Internet Finance and third party payment is among the biggest.

In 2014, under the policy background of the continuation of the trend of reform, the capital market itself will still be dominated by structural market. The main themes of the economic pformation, such as the theme of reform, high-quality growth and undervalued blue chip, will be faced with huge investment opportunities, and the industries with the needs of people's livelihood will be the largest.

extension reading |IFN /p >

> a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_z.asp" > MOFCOM > /a >: trade data no water /p >

year-on-year growth of more than 10%, which is just released in January, foreign trade data, for this far exceeding the expected data, the outside questioned, some economists believe that this data seems to be too good to be true.

They insist that exporters may be a repeat of their tricks. They can make more capital flow illegally into the territory through fraud in trade data, so as to gain profits from the appreciation of the renminbi and the rise in domestic interest rates.

In February 19th, Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, counterattacked this criticism.

Shen Danyang said that some analysts believe that trade related arbitrage pactions lead to false export pactions, which is the reason behind the strong export growth data.

"I believe this is just a guess and no basis."

it is learnt that after the January foreign trade data was released, economists including ANZ of Australia and New Zealand made questionable interpretations in their research reports.

The report said that although this may reflect some improvement in external demand, they suspect that the value of false exports is reappearing.

According to the P report, it is important to note that exports from Asian trading partners of mainland China, Taiwan and Korea were rather weak in January.

They also found that roundabout pactions between China's Hongkong and Mainland China rose again from the fourth quarter of 2013, reflecting the willingness of the market to borrow interest rates from the mainland and the appreciation of the renminbi.

Nomura economists also said they were puzzled about the strong performance of China's exports in January because they did not match the export situation reflected in the recently published PMI.

Shen Danyang believes that the trade figures in January are generally reasonable and logical, consistent with the strengthening of the main overseas markets at the time of the global economic recovery.

he pointed out that the export of important products including automobiles and consumer goods has achieved rapid growth, and exports to the vast majority of countries such as the United States, the European Union and ASEAN have achieved a substantial increase.

"There may still be some exporters' falsification of data, but not enough to distort the overall upward trend of exports."

"although the Arbitrage Behavior of individual enterprises is not ruled out, the export growth in January is generally reasonable and logical."

Shen Danyang added.