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Gao Yong Analyzes The Economic Situation Of 2013/14 Textile Industry

2014/2/25 19:13:00 50

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Gao Yong Textile Industry Economic Situation

recently, the ninth annual meeting of the China spinning round table forum hosted by the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "China Textile Industry Federation < /a >, the China Textile Industry Federation news center and the China Textile Economic Research Center was held in Beijing.

The conference aims to comprehensively deepen reform and the development of the textile industry.

Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation, analyzed the economic situation of 2013/14 textile industry.

speech by Gao Yong, vice president and Secretary General of China Textile Industry Federation at the China Textile Roundtable Forum: /p >

2013, the development of the entire textile industry was relatively stable, similar to that of the national economy.

The national economy is advancing steadily, while the textile industry is steadily increasing.

Last year, a lot of people felt that last year was a very difficult year. Some bosses even thought that there might be a period of time more difficult than 2009.

What are the reasons? I think these are the characteristics.

the first feature is that the textile industry has entered a relatively low growth stage of development.

From last year's data, the main business revenue of the whole industry last year was about 6380000000000, and the growth of more than 11%.

If we look at the whole profit of the industry, there will be 360 billion 500 million more profit than 17%.

These two data alone are just as good as the industry situation.

, however, judging from the output of the main products, it may be similar to the feelings of many operators.

Whether it is tube yarn, cloth, chemical fiber output and clothing output, the increase in the first quarter is still over 10%, basically 11%.

By 5 and June, the growth rate dropped to around 8%.

After the second half of the year, from the annual data, the output of all other major products decreased to less than 8% except for industrial textiles.

According to the Cotton Spinning Association's own estimate, the output of yarn is only 1% points increase.

Cloth production is also similar, according to the Cotton Spinning Association estimates, about 2% of the negative growth.

And the annual data of clothing is only 1.25%, which is the lowest growth rate over the years, and is close to zero growth.

so, from these data, 2013 is indeed a rather sad year, and some enterprises are more difficult to deal with.

Therefore, first of all, the whole growth rate has slowed down. The GDP of the whole country is 7.7%, and the GDP growth of our textile industry is only 8.3%.

Because in the planned economy period, the growth of industry must be far higher than the growth of GDP in the whole country, so as to support the growth of GDP throughout the country.

Now, although the development of the third industry exceeds second industries, but if the second industry is 7% in the whole country, the growth of GDP which is usually above 9.3% can be enough to sustain. However, we only have 8.3% now, which means that the growth rate has not been able to fully fulfill the needs of the textile industry.

another is investment. Just now Yao Zong said that the investment of the whole country last year was 19.7% growth rate. In the past, the investment in the textile industry was always far higher than that in the whole country.

It is generally 30%, the highest time to reach 42%, or 39%, but last year, just over 17% of investment, that is, 17% growth.

Of course, it should be said that the growth of 17% is not necessarily an irrational increase, but we are now greatly reduced compared with our high growth period.

So this is also one of the reasons why some enterprises feel that the industry is very bad.

another reason is that the impact of raw materials on the development of the whole industry is more and more obvious. After the continuation of the cotton purchase policy, the continuous domestic cotton price difference has a huge impact on the textile industry, so the cotton textile industry has more impact than other industries.

Last year, only 8 million 300 thousand tons of cotton were used in China, 2 million tons less than the year before, and nearly 15 million tons less than the 18 million tons of cotton at the highest time. At the same time, 21 million 130 thousand tons of cotton yarn were imported.

This is just the problem of cotton yarn. In fact, chemical fiber, including the structure of the entire chemical fiber industry, has been emerging since last year and has had a certain impact on our industry.

The second characteristic of is the structural adjustment of enterprises. In the current situation, our orders, profits and capacity have been concentrated on large enterprises.

Especially in the cotton textile industry, in the knitting industry, the clothing industry is more obvious.

Therefore, this is also one of the problems that cause some enterprises to become more and more difficult.

of course, there is another feature that the whole industry's situation of energy saving and emission reduction is getting more and more serious. I sum up the work of energy saving and emission reduction into three aspects, the first is energy saving, the second is emission reduction, and the third is the recovery and reuse of waste textiles.

We have a lot of new experience in energy saving, but there is still a big gap with the advanced level of the world.

Therefore, the Textile Industry Federation's Environmental Protection Committee has done a lot of training activities in the industry in recent years, and has done a lot of consulting activities, which has been very effective in energy conservation.

However, compared with the advanced indicators of the world, we still have a big gap.

The biggest problem is emission reduction, especially sewage discharge, which is similar to the energy saving and emission reduction work in the whole country.

It is also a big topic for colleagues to recycle waste textiles.

another feature is terminal, if our online sales exceed 500 billion, that is to say, the current terminal 20% is sold on the Internet.

Therefore, this piece will also cause a significant change in the sales way of some garment enterprises.

Therefore, last year some of the domestic clothing enterprises, such as sportswear and young people's clothing, may be closed more quickly, and a lot of customs clearance, because this part of the pfer to online sales should be some popular products.

but in fact, last year there were several highlights that we did not think of, especially exports.

Excluding shoes and hats, the export statistics of textiles and garments in 2013 amounted to $292 billion, an increase of 11.24%, which is much higher than that of 7.9% in the whole country.

However, in relation to exports, we originally predicted that the growth rate of exports would slow down when we formulated the "12th Five-Year plan". Therefore, we hope to make up for this part of export reduction with domestic demand. Last year, domestic demand fell by surprise.

The total sales volume of social consumer goods increased by 13.1% last year, and only 11.7% of our textile products.

In the past, there was an indicator in the "12th Five-Year plan" that the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society doubled in five years, which means that the annual growth of consumer goods must increase by 15% over the next five years.

In the past few years, we basically increased by 17%. When the national growth rate was 17%, we increased by about 19%, and now the whole country has dropped to 13.1%, and we have dropped faster than the whole country, only 11.7%.

This means that we need to do a lot of work in promoting domestic demand for textiles.

In general, in 2013, the whole < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > the textile industry < /a > should be said that the realization of a steady increase in such a situation is not easy to get. "P".

In 2014, I personally believe that the whole industry situation is still dominated by "stability", although it will still "steadily increase", but I changed this "steady increase" to a word called "steady change".

Because I think the situation we face in 2014 may be bigger than in 2013.

first is our two ends. First, raw materials will change. Of course, cotton policy has been known. After the new cotton season comes up this year, the state will give Xinjiang a target subsidy.

So, after hearing this news, many people think that this year's cotton will drop greatly, and will be close to the price of the international market.

But I think this year's cotton price and cotton policy may be more difficult to predict than the past two years.

Before September, it still implemented the state reserve price, 20400 yuan acquisition. Now the acquisition is almost the same. More than 80% are now in the Treasury. The Treasury now has about 13000000 tons of cotton, which is equivalent to the output of more than two years in the Treasury.

The price of the state will be 18000 yuan, and this price will still be implemented in the first half of this year and even before September.

Cotton prices will not drop at least for a while.

After this year's new cotton market, although the country no longer stores, but because there are about 13000000 tons of cotton in the state treasury, the about 13000000 tons of cotton must be digested in a few years.

How to digest it? Now the state means only one import quota, so the digestion of national cotton reserves will inevitably be linked to import quotas.

How to hook up? What way to hook up? What price link is the variable this year?

Therefore, I think we should not hold too much hope in the market price of cotton.

The second is chemical fiber.

The problems accumulated over the past few years in the adjustment of chemical fiber industrial structure have been emerging continuously for the past two years.

For example, in 2013, when the price of cotton was high, the price of chemical fiber should also be raised, because we used less cotton and a lot of chemical fiber, but the price of chemical fiber was still going down.

This adjustment of the industrial structure, whether good or bad this year, we must swallow it up.

This is what I mean by changes in raw materials in 2014.

the other is mainly the market.

In 2013, although the growth rate of direct export to the domestic market of Europe, the United States and Japan was not high, it was mainly due to the export growth of the EU that made us 11%.

European and American markets will continue to rebound this year, which will be beneficial to our exports.

I think the variable is still in our domestic demand market, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > domestic demand market < /a > last year, it has dropped to about 11% growth rate, far lower than expected.

Just now, 23 trillion and 400 billion of the total retail sales of consumer goods, the urban population consumed 20 trillion, the rural population only consumed more than 3 billion, while the rural population accounted for 40% of our current population proportion, nearly half of the population and rural population and urban population consumption ratio is only 1/7.

Therefore, I believe that for our consumer goods such as clothing and home textiles, we will not be able to increase domestic consumption if we do not raise the level of consumption in the countryside.

Therefore, with the process of urbanization emphasized by the Central Committee, and with the improvement of people's living standards, I hope that the consumption of our rural population can bring domestic demand to a higher level, hoping that this will help us in the entire domestic demand market in 2014.

finally, on the outlook of the market in 2014, I mainly use the word "change" to give you an outlook. If there is something wrong, I hope you can criticize and correct it. Thank you!