Zheng Cotton, Cotton And Cotton Almost Rose At The Same Time, Zheng Cotton'S Downtrend Is Expected To Slow Down.

< p > February 28th, Zheng cotton price fell sharply: 1405 contract from 19520 yuan / ton high point to 18705 yuan / ton low point, 1409 contract limit, set a new low of 17770 yuan / ton.

What caused the cotton to fall sharply? First of all, the US cotton fell into a concussion, but it did not fall sharply.

The US cotton round began to rise in mid November 2013. Zheng cotton's 1405 contract also rose in mid November.

< /p >

The import cost ratio of < p > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > has been maintained at 7.8-8.5 times. The ratio between zhengmian 1405 contract and ICE main contract is maintained at 10.5 times.

Relative to imported cotton, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > zhengmian < /a > has been up about 4000 yuan / ton.

It seems that Zheng cotton has slowed down or even dropped, but it is actually not.

Most small and medium sized trade and processing enterprises do not have import quotas and can only entrust imports, so the actual import cost is equivalent to that of Zheng cotton.

Therefore, as for the United States cotton, it does not support such a large drop in the Zheng cotton.

< /p >

< p > secondly, in terms of supply, the domestic cotton output in 2013/14 has been reduced by hundreds of thousands of tons over the year 2012/13. Therefore, the output does not support the sharp fall of Zheng cotton.

In 2013/14, the government continued to implement the policy of purchasing and storage. The < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > storage price < /a > is still 20400 yuan / ton.

As of February 2014, about 5 million 200 thousand tons of new cotton entered the country's warehouses, and the market circulation was only 100 million tons, which is similar to that of 2012/13.

< /p >

< p > market circulation has been greatly reduced, and trade and processing enterprises have to purchase from national reserves.

Although USDA forecasts that more than 50% of the world's cotton stock is in the current year, that is, more than 11 million tons of inventory is in China, but these stocks are orderly and controllable, and there is no news of large-scale storage of national cotton into the market.

Therefore, it is not the reason why Zheng cotton price fell sharply, but it has a supportive effect on the cotton price.

< /p >

< p > Third, before the formal decision of the direct subsidy policy, everything is still a discussion, and there is uncertainty.

In fact, a similar crash has also occurred in the soybean market. In from July 24 to 30, 2013, the 5 day of trading 1405 soybean contract fell sharply from 4572 yuan / tonne to 4184 yuan / ton, or more than 8%.

In addition to the reason for the lack of liquidity, the discussion on direct subsidy policy is the main incentive.

Last week, the sharp fall of Zheng cotton was also a policy adjustment, that is, the discussion of direct subsidy policy.

< /p >

< p > as far as time is concerned, it is better to introduce detailed rules in 3-4 months to implement direct subsidy policy in 2014/15.

The downstream textile enterprises hope that the direct subsidy price will be lower, and the upstream enterprises hope to set a higher level. It is reported that the direct subsidy interval is about 19000-20600 yuan / ton, and many experts are inclined to 19400 yuan / ton.

Since it is a direct subsidy, the official is only guaranteeing the interests of cotton farmers. The price of cotton will ultimately be determined by the market. The direct subsidy price is high and low and the relationship between the upstream and downstream enterprises is not large, because the difference between the price and the market price is paid by the state.

< /p >

< p > the upstream and downstream enterprises may be more worried that the direct subsidy will have a direct impact on the pricing of the cotton market, or even a direct impact.

However, whether the purchase or storage is made, or the direct subsidy is to ensure the interests of cotton farmers. Since the state can not limit the purchase price at 20400 yuan / ton, why can't we make up the price at a close price?

< /p >