The RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuates Gradually.

< p > reporter noted that since the late fall of February a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB < /a > fell sharply, the fluctuation rate of spot exchange rate has increased significantly compared with the past.

However, Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank's financial market, said that the rebound after the crash will be more violent, which does not mean that the big fluctuations will become the norm.

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< p > < strong > spot exchange rate rising three times /strong < /p >

(P) as of Thursday (March 6th), the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has risen 3 days.

Wind data show that Wednesday (March 5th) significantly increased 148 points, to 6.1282, within days of 426 points; after Thursday opened high, continued to rise, the highest 6.1099 to 6.1185.

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< p > for this, Liu Dongliang told reporters that this may be due to the recent two days to reduce the guidance of the market.

In addition, after a sharp fall in the past, some institutions may think that the current RMB exchange rate is appropriate (admission), and the future is profitable, so they began to copy the bottom.

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< p > "it is impossible to let the RMB continue to depreciate significantly.

In fact, the central parity announced by the central bank in the past few days did not show the expectation that the RMB would continue to depreciate significantly, so everyone would think that the devaluation would come to an end and begin to return to the foreign exchange market for short-term gains.

Chen Long, a financial analyst at Dongguan bank, also believes that after the previous crash, the market generally expects that prices will come back.

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< p > Chen Long also said that the "government work report" made by Premier Li Keqiang set the target of GDP growth in 2014 at 7.5%, which is more confident for China's future economic reform.

To a certain extent, it is also conducive to a sharp rebound in the renminbi.

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< p > < strong > a href= < http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > < < /a > > single day fluctuation intensifies < /strong > /p >

< p > reporter noted that since February 25th (as of March 6th), the spot rate of RMB against the US dollar has fluctuated more than 100 intraday fluctuations. In the 8 consecutive trading days, 7 trading days have more than 150 waves, half of which exceed 300 points.

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< p > whether it rises or falls, the "big volatility" has become a very obvious feature of the spot foreign exchange market recently.

Will big fluctuations become a norm for future RMB spot exchange rates? < /p >

< p > for this, Liu Dongliang said, if the leader of the Department in charge of the position, this should be the norm.

But in fact, we still have no way to determine when the larger and two-way fluctuation is going to start. Is it already starting now?

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< p > "from the end of February, the yuan began to fall sharply to the present. The RMB exchange rate often has a relatively large amplitude in a single day. In fact, this is normal, because the rebound after the crash is often violent, and there is no evidence that the state will remain in the future."

Liu Dongliang explained that if the renminbi continues to maintain such a drastic trend after the end of the "two sessions", then it may have entered a stage of two-way volatility.

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< p > Chen Long predicted that after entering the two or three quarter, the economy will be relatively clear, and the fluctuation of exchange rate will be relatively stable.

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< p > < strong > short term < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > arbitrage fund < /a > will reduce < /strong > /p >

< p > Liu Dongliang said before that regulators also frequently expressed the need to increase the volatility of the renminbi, but all were "thunder and no rain". At present, regulators may have begun to feel that this problem is more urgent than before.

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< p > "if the renminbi is only to depreciate in the future, 1%~2% will rise again, which may have a relatively limited impact on arbitrage funds, because the market's expectation of RMB appreciation is not over yet, and the fall is just a good opportunity to enter the arbitrage fund."

Liu Dongliang thinks, but if there is no regular fluctuation, it may have an impact on the import and export enterprises.

They do exchange rate forwards and do some derivatives trading. They all need to have a judgement on the future exchange rate. If it is a disorder, it will be difficult for them. The cost of locking the exchange rate will be very high.

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< p > Chen Long believes that if the market volatility is relatively large, it means that the market risk is relatively large. In order to gain more profits, people will have more long-term assets, and the short-term arbitrage will be reduced. This is also the result of the central bank's willingness to squeeze out "hot money".

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< p > "the fluctuation of exchange rate has little effect on the import and export units, so long as they lock in the exchange rate in the foreign exchange futures market," Chen Long said that many companies that are actually doing physical trade now lock in exchange rate risks through foreign exchange futures.

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