Ye Tan's Discussion On Trade Bubble And Bubble Trade

< p > recently, the data released by the General Administration of customs is a big surprise. Following the sharp increase in exports in January, exports dropped sharply in February.

In February, the total value of China's imports and exports was 251 billion 180 million US dollars, down 4.8% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports of US $114 billion 100 million, down 18.1% compared to the same period last year, imports of US $137 billion 80 million, an increase of 10.1% over the previous year, a trade deficit of 22 billion 980 million US dollars, and a trade surplus of 14 billion 800 million US dollars in the same period last year.

Exports of BRICs fell by more than 20%.

The quarterly data showed that exports fell by 34%, while imports fell by 0.4%, including imports of copper, iron ore and steel.

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< p > the interpretation of the General Administration of customs is the impact of the Spring Festival.

Zheng Yuesheng, director general of the General Administration of customs and director of the Comprehensive Statistics Division, said that the trade deficit in some months was not surprising, especially the Spring Festival factors, which often led to trade deficits in the first few months of the year.

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Since P 2012, China's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> Trade Area < /a > has appeared two world-class events: first, it became the world's largest commodity trade in 2013; and two, since 2012, the import and export data have been greatly affected.

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According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in 2013, the total value of imports and exports reached US $4 trillion and 160 billion, which increased by 7.6% after the adjustment of RMB exchange rate. China's foreign trade import and export value exceeded the US $4 trillion mark for the first time and became the world's largest cargo trading country.

This is a geometric progression: in 2004, the total value of China's imports and exports exceeded 1 trillion dollars, and in 2007 and 2011, it exceeded 2 trillion US dollars and 3 trillion US dollars respectively.

Some American economists have questioned that the first trade in goods does not match the name of the country.

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Less than P, it is interesting to note that since 2012, the import and export data have been greatly oscillating and the monthly amplitude is very large.

In April 2012, foreign trade decelerated, unexpectedly big rebound in May, nearly zero growth in 7 and August, export improvement in 9 and October, and high growth rate in November.

The same was true in 2013. After the first quarter's high data was questioned, the State Administration of foreign exchange (FSB) introduced measures to combat counterfeiting export invoices forged capital inflows, and arbitrage trade was curbed in May 2013.

The data showed a sharp decline in June of that year. From January to June, the cumulative growth rate dropped from 5 digits in the past two months to single digits, down 2% in June, and positive growth in July.

In November, when export data grew faster than two digits to 12.7%, it was once again questioned.

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< p > China's foreign trade data confirm that in the volume of trade in goods, China has become a monster, and whether it likes it or not, we must face up to this reality.

In addition to its impact on trade, raw materials and futures prices, the impact on the global financial sector is growing.

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< p > the voice of overseas questioned trade data is endless.

The trade figures in the first quarter of last year proved to be reasonable by comparing with Hongkong and South Korea. In January this year, the weak PMI data of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises failed to match strong exports.

Short term orders and increased import and export volatility are not enough to cause volatility to heart disease.

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< p > trade data tally with the trend of RMB exchange rate.

From the US dollar to the renminbi monthly K line, it is from 2012 that the RMB exchange rate began to oscillate sharply.

Although the general trend of RMB increased, the volatility increased significantly. From the weekly K line, the second half of 2012 increased steadily against the US dollar, and the trend of export increased obviously. In the second half of 2013, the total number of roads rose and went up to this year.

Correspondingly, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Import and export data < /a > changes are like monkeys jumping up and down.

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< p > only a simple example. Last year, due to the increase in export accidents, the safe issued a strict foreign exchange policy in May. It also had some punishing measures for suspected arbitrage enterprises. After squeezing water, exports fell and the RMB exchange rate fell synchronously.

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< p > < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > foreign trade enterprise < /a >, now is a troubled time. The exchange rate downlink can expand exports, and the risk of exchange rate rising is increasing. Most foreign trade manufacturers do not have the means to lock risks.

The author has contacted a company, because of the exchange of structured products trading, almost bankrupt, scared out of a cold sweat.

The same is true for airlines and other companies. Last year, the rise in the RMB exchange rate was barely profitable, and a few days' slump almost eclipses the profits.

In addition to special high-tech enterprises with fixed customers, manufacturers can only take short and urgent orders, and foreign trade ecology becomes worse.

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< p > the real attack is arbitrage traders. Today, large quantities of RMB are traded through fake trade. Tomorrow they may suffer a great deal of losses. Those who engage in arbitrage pactions such as copper and iron must also be careful. If the copper imports increase substantially, the entities can not keep up with them. As long as the domestic copper price is suppressed, the arbitrage space will disappear.

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The RMB exchange rate is closely related to the trade level. A set of data is used to measure the relationship between them. In January 7, 2014, the economist of the global financial integrity Organization (GFI) of the US nonprofit organization, LeBlanc, used the official trade data of the Hongkong customs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to draw a calculation result. It was found that in 2012, 101 billion US dollars entered the mainland in the form of multiple invoices. In 2013, over 100 billion US dollars of hot money poured into the mainland through counterfeit invoices.

From the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2013, up to 400 billion US dollars were illegally entered the mainland through false export invoices.

$100 billion is not comparable to $4 trillion, but it shows that arbitrage exists and the door is open.

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