The World Bank Forecasts That China'S GDP Growth Will Drop To 7.5%.

In November 25th, the latest China Economic Quarterly released by the world bank in Beijing said that so far, the impact of international financial and economic turbulence on China's economy is still in the controllable range. It is estimated that China's GDP growth will be around 7.5% in 2009.

China's policy of stimulating domestic demand is the key to maintaining growth in 2009.

The growth rate of 7.5% is enough to ensure the demand for jobs in the Chinese labor market. Gao Luyi, senior economist at the world bank, said: "we forecast that China's GDP growth in 2009 will be around 7.5%, and more than half will come from government led spending."

In June, the world bank issued quarterly reports that China's GDP growth rate was about 9% in 2009.

By November, the forecast dropped rapidly to 7.5%.

Louis explained that this is mainly due to the relative deterioration of the external environment of China's economy due to the global economic crisis.

Du Dawei also said that it is usually not scientific to predict the economic growth rate of China's "8%".

He said, "I don't think China needs to create magic like economic growth rate to bring enough employment opportunities.

For China, 7.5% of the economic growth is enough to ensure the demand for jobs in the Chinese labor market.

According to the report, the stimulus package contains a large number of contents that contribute to the overall and long-term development of China's economy and the improvement of people's living standards.

Some of these stimulus measures have partly supported the shift in growth driven from investment, export and industrial production to consumption and services.

The world bank believes that further measures will be introduced in addition to the measures announced.

For example, the government expects that the rural pension scheme will cover 60% of the rural population by 2010, and the coverage will reach 80% by 2015, which is higher than the previous plan.

The World Bank recommends that the government can take advantage of the fiscal stimulus package to introduce more structural adjustment measures, including energy and resource pricing mechanisms, education and health and social security, financial reform and institutional reform.

The impact of financial turmoil is still under control. "In the past year, the impact of international financial turmoil on China's economy is still controllable."

Du Dawei, director of the world bank's China Bureau, is so judgmental.

China's financial system is relatively isolated from the international financial market, so it can avoid direct impact.

As China's major banks are not deeply involved in subprime related assets, and at the same time, the state controls capital flows, coupled with the abundant liquidity of the financial markets brought by external earnings and the large amount of foreign exchange reserves of the central bank, which has caused the international financial crisis to have only a limited direct impact on China's financial system so far.

The report said that in recent months, the Chinese government adopted a policy of stabilizing the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar in the face of the dollar exchange rate pushed up by the increasing demand for us dollar in the world market.

This makes China's exchange rate policy one of the factors to maintain stability in the region and the international financial market.

Inflation pressure has subsided. The World Bank report says inflation pressure has subsided.

As food prices rose sharply and the core inflation rate remained low, consumer price inflation fell to 4% in October.

Inflationary pressures in the international and domestic markets are also easing as prices of crude oil and other raw materials continue to decline.

The prospect of falling prices of raw materials means that inflation is no longer a major concern in the near future.