Foreign Trade Data Review: Exploring The Reasons For The Differentiation Of Import And Export Data

Data show that the total value of China's imports and exports is 633 billion 570 million US dollars, up 3.8% over the same period last year. Among them, the export portion was 321 billion 230 million US dollars, up from -1.6%, while the import part was US $312 billion 340 million, up 10%, and the trade surplus of US $8 billion 890 million was significantly narrowed by 79.1%. However, from February single month data analysis, China's total import and export volume fell by 4.8% over the same period last year. Among them, exports dropped by 18.1%, imports increased by 10.1%, trade deficit was $22 billion 980 million, compared with a surplus of $14 billion 800 million during the same period last year.

Single month of February Exit The year-on-year growth rate was -18.1%. Factors such as: 1. Due to the influence of the dislocation of the Spring Festival holiday in February, this weakened export performance worsened. From the habits of exporters and manufacturers, the delivery and collection of goods before the Spring Festival holiday often occurred, resulting in abnormal fluctuations in January or February. Second, in the early years of the United States, because of the severe cold, economic activities tended to slow down, resulting in a temporary fall in demand in the US market and a certain impact on China's exports. There are considerable differences between double-digit growth in January, and we believe that there are mainly four The renewed inflow of arbitrage hot money caused the central bank to acquiesce in the depreciation of the RMB against the arbitrage funds. In February, under the pressure of devaluation, the inflow of hot money quickly decreased, and the export of February also dived.

Import data received Seasonal factors The impact is strong. In our view, unlike the export situation, enterprises often start early after the festival and prepare for production and operation. Therefore, in terms of imports, industrial activities in this area have not slowed down due to the Spring Festival.

But export activities will be completed ahead of schedule. This contrast can easily lead to statistical differences. Meanwhile, at the beginning of the year, imports increased activity, and hot money was carried out through imported commodities. Financing arbitrage Cause of activity.

We have noticed that since the beginning of the year, a large number of imports of minerals including iron ore, steel and copper have appeared in the main coastal ports. The import growth is relatively high, but there is a strong contrast with the downstream weak industrial demand, which does not exclude the speculative financing behavior of importers.

China's foreign trade performance is expected to return to normal in the two quarter. In this year's central government work report, China's foreign trade development target has been reduced by 0.5 percentage points over the past year. We believe that there are two meanings in this regard: first, there are still some repeated expectations of the recovery of overseas economies, coupled with a defensive attitude towards international geopolitical events and other uncertain factors; secondly, China's economic vitality this year is still weak, which will have an impact on China's import performance. As a result, structural adjustment may still exert some pressure on economic growth in the short term.

However, since the second half of last year, a series of policies and measures to promote the steady development of foreign trade will continue to play a role and create conditions for China's future export growth. It is expected that China's import and export performance will return to normal after the two quarter as the US economic recovery is clear.