The Bubble Has Not Yet Broken Down.

　　 Gem The strong performance and abundant liquidity of small and medium sized enterprises are contrasting with the sustained downturn of the main board, which has split the A share market into two markets. The theme of the new economy (310358, fund) is obviously better than that of the old economy. Many overseas investors are worried about the main board market. They dare not touch the cyclical industry and financial industry related to investment. They believe that the bubble of the growth enterprise market is serious, but not yet at the breaking point. This investment style is hard to see changes in the next half year. Many investors expect small stocks to intervene again after adjustment, but they will not immediately switch to "old economy".

The risk premium rate of the entire financial market will soar as more and more super day debt events break out, and investors will no longer pursue risky assets, such as small ones. shares Low rated bonds, real estate trusts and so on. At the same time, risk-free interest rates may fall back and risk asset pricing is corrected to a certain extent. Entering the two quarter, political trust, real estate and city investment bonds will usher in the peak payment period. If the debt continues to go on, then the financing interest rate will rise, further exacerbating the deviation of capital prices from the EBIT net interest rate of the enterprises. If the debt maturity is limited, the third wave of credit shocks will come, and its negative impact will far exceed the default of interest payments for mineral trust and bonds.

The events that may change the current investment style in the future can only be: the monetary authorities voluntarily reduce interest rates (not the benchmark interest rate, but the money market benchmark interest rate, the seven day repo rate between banks); allow local governments to issue bonds directly, directly reduce the financing cost of local governments, reduce the financing cost of the whole society, and the economic growth rate has dropped to below 7%. Credit default has occurred in mineral, real estate and local government trusts, and the financial system has collapsed.

although Investor For short-term risk is more cautious, but there is no difference in the direction of growth stocks. First, the first condition for growth stocks - the assumption that the economy remains relatively stable has not wavered. In the prime minister's government work report, the 2014 GDP target is set at 7.5%, the CPI target is set at about 3.5%, the M2 balance growth rate is set at 13%, and the defense expenditure growth target is set at 12.2%, which means that the government will not allow the economy to decline rapidly. Secondly, there are second conditions for growth stocks - liquidity does not show a trend of tightening. Judging from the objectives of the government work report, the target of M2 is 13%, which is equivalent to 13.6% in 2013. In the future, as long as interest rates do not rise too fast and too fast, and there is no sustained upward expectation, the impact on growth stocks will not be too large. The risk of future capital prices is whether the management will adopt new regulatory measures against "shadow banks" after the "two sessions".

Therefore, we expect that after the release of risk in 3 and April, some quality growth stocks will still outperform the market. Investors are advised to focus on the "new" theme.

First of all, the market has a certain degree of understanding and recognition of the new themes, such as medical services, information security and LED themes. We believe that the growth of the medical service industry comes from the aging of population and the crux of the difficulty of seeing a doctor in history. The growth space of information security comes from the requirement of upgrading the safety level. The LED space comes from the opening of the civil lighting market and the structural improvement brought by the large screen TV. Moreover, the market does not have much difference in its future market space, but the time for the market to rise and the speed of its rise is uncertain.

Second, recent market There are catalysts or events that confirm the industry boom. For example, in the Third Plenary Session of November 2013, when the reform of health care system was deepened and private capital was encouraged to enter, enterprises were constantly involved in mergers and acquisitions or joint ventures. In February 27, 2014, the central network security and informatization leadership group was founded and held its first meeting, which was led by President Xi Jinping personally, which means that the construction of information network security has become a national focus. In addition, with the development of mobile Internet finance, security issues have become a bottleneck. Therefore, we expect that the future of software and hardware related to the improvement of security level will be a major trend of development. As for the LED industry, according to UBS's tracking of lighting leading manufacturers, the growth rate of LED revenue of the leading companies in the fourth quarter of 2013 has been increasing rapidly. Due to the continued growth of screen size and the enhancement of resolution, the demand for traditional backlight has exceeded market expectations since the beginning of the year. With the upgrading of global LED demand, overseas lighting manufacturers will not be able to transfer part of their capacity from Taiwan to mainland China.