Domestic Cotton Market Calm Policy Adjustment

< p > > domestic a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton > /a > market calm because of the adjustment of policy adjustment last week (17-21 March), policy adjustment period is approaching, cotton price is expected to be lowered, cotton mill control stock limit purchase, traders cut prices, and spot trading volume price falls.

Domestic futures consolidation is waiting for the policy to fall, and the external market is stimulated by the expected issuance of quotas.

Last Friday, Bohai (East China) closed at 18795 yuan / ton, weekly fell 5 yuan / ton, the national cotton price B index was 19318 yuan / ton, and the week fell 18 yuan / ton.

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< p > futures market.

Zheng cotton has fully responded to the policy rumors. Last week it was slightly shocked and waited for the policy to fall.

CF1405 closed on 18920 yuan / ton last Friday, and fell 5 yuan per ton per week. Before the policy falls, it will remain volatile and there will be a trend of returning to the reserve price in the later stage.

Long term 1411, CF1501 policy will also maintain a slight shock before the introduction of the policy will be amended.

Inspired by the increase in expected demand for additional quota, China's recent contract has remained strong, but its volume has shrunk. It failed to break through 93.93 cents / pound in March 15th last year, attracting much more evidence, with limited space to rise, and the callback is a trend.

The price of bonded goods is strong when the external market remains high, and there are few pactions due to the lack of quotas and the risk of price reduction after customs clearance.

With the reduction of domestic cotton prices, the advantage of foreign cotton on the price is shrinking. China's huge national reserve stock and expected dumping price are not high, but the new year is not high priced.

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< p > spot market.

The policy adjustment window is approaching, the spot price is down, but the number of downgrades is still variable. Under this expectation, what the mills can do is to compress the cotton and cotton yarn stocks, minimize the losses brought by the price reduction, and the turnover of the imported and imported cotton will shrink dramatically.

Most of the imported cotton in recent days have customs clearance. Most of them have entered the bonded warehouse. Because the US market is strong, the price of US dollar is relatively small.

The United States cotton concentrate on arrival, the quality is general, the low code is more, the supply strain is relieved, the price has loosened, the general reduction 200-300 yuan / ton.

Australia cotton trading shrink, a small callback, starting next month, new cotton will arrive in Hong Kong, supply will ease.

India cotton: the quality quoted price is 17900-18100 yuan / ton, the middle price is 17700-17800 yuan / ton, the lower price is 17300-17600 yuan / ton.

Mei cotton: the quality quoted price is 20100-20500 yuan / ton, the middle price is 19700-19900 yuan / ton, the lower price is 19000-19200 yuan / ton.

Australia cotton quotes 21000-21500 yuan / ton.

Xinjiang's long staple cotton is under the oppression of the loan repayment period near the end of March. The local price has loosened, and the center of gravity has shifted to 33500 yuan / ton line. 32600 yuan / ton has been quoted in some cases. The price of Pima cotton has been loosened under Xinjiang cotton's drag. The price has been reduced by 200 yuan / ton, sinking to 33300-33600 yuan / ton line.

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< p > collection and storage.

As of March 21st, 2013 cotton storage temporarily accumulated 6 million 199 thousand tons of storage.

As the policy adjustment window approached, the volume of last week's trading volume continued to shrink significantly, with a turnover of 27564 tons a week, down 29% from last week.

As of March 21st, the cumulative output of cotton reserves in 2013 was 711 thousand tons, and the volume will continue to shrink before the end of March. After the price adjustment in April, if the imported cotton is matched, the turnover may have a small peak. The paction price may not be very low, and the centralized paction will lead to a longer storage time.

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< p > demand side.

On the one hand, cotton prices are expected to be lowered. Cotton mills are not willing to buy cotton for the purpose of preventing price losses. Two, sales of cotton yarn are difficult, and cotton mills have no money to purchase. Three is to limit production and reduce inventory, total demand is reduced, three factors are superimposed, and actual demand for cotton is reduced.

The replacement polyester staple and viscose staple fiber were low again last week. Polyester staple fiber has reached 8800 yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber has broken 11700 yuan / ton, and the difference between cotton and cotton continues to expand, resulting in reverse pressure on cotton demand and price.

In the long run, because of the narrowing of the price difference between inside and outside cotton, the price advantage of imported yarn will be reduced. If the adjustment of rumors of throwing and storage policy is fulfilled, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton will be further narrowed, and the impact of imported yarn will be reduced. < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile > /a > export competitiveness will increase, export will increase, domestic reform dividend will be released, domestic livelihood will be improved, domestic demand will increase, cotton demand will recover at that time.

The market has generally placed great hopes for late policies.

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< p > cotton recommendation.

New cotton will come to Hong Kong next month to pay attention to the quality of new cotton.

The arrival of US cotton increased, supply eased and prices relaxed.

The quality of Xinjiang cotton is better, the price is moderate, and the amount of cotton mill is increased.

The price of India cotton is 17800-18100 yuan / ton, which is close to the reserve price, and the quantity of purchase is more flexible than that of throwing and storing. The turnover is still the main body of imported cotton.

Below 17500 yuan / ton, the price of real estate cotton is relatively low, and some quality is acceptable.

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< p > operation ideas.

CF1405 has been maintaining consolidation recently, and the probability of late fall is high.

The forward 1411 and 1501 have been basically cashed < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_q.asp" > policy > /a > expected, maintaining consolidation and participation value is not large.

The US market is at a high level, and there are opportunities for arbitrage between bonded goods and the US market.

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