RMB'S Rise Or Fall Has Become Normal Or Volatile.

Last week, the renminbi, which had fallen sharply last week, began to pick up on Monday. As of 5:40 yesterday, the highest price of RMB against the US dollar was 6.2250: the lowest price: 6.1959 yuan, buying price: 6.1959, selling price: 6.1961, or 291 points.

" RMB Earlier weakness has something to do with speeding up the exit of Q E. Dr. Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research at the center for research and development, said to reporters in Nandu, "but the problem should be dialectically analyzed. The future trend of RMB should be more market-oriented, and it will not depreciate all the way. The fluctuation will become the norm."

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic macro-economic trend has been volatile and the PMI index has been innovating low and the RMB has depreciated sharply. Beijing time on March 20th morning, the Fed Open Market Committee announced interest rate decisions. The meeting decided to cut the scale of debt purchases from 10 billion US dollars to US $55 billion.

Subsequently, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said at a news conference that the Q E 3 was completely withdrawn this autumn and implied that the future interest rate rise may be in the spring of 2015. The renminbi once again suffered the devaluation pressure last week.

Founder Securities analyst Wang Kun analysis, if dollar The pressure and sustainability of devaluation may exceed the market expectations. The spot exchange rate of RMB is expected to depreciate to around 6.3. In the future, new foreign exchange holdings will show a downward trend, and even the possibility of falling into negative growth will increase. interest rate The central level will also increase the possibility and necessity of future central bank [micro-blog] reduction.

"The weakening of the renminbi in the early stage has a certain relationship with the AP speeding up its exit from the Q E. The dollar reflux, the market believes that the dollar is tight, like to hold more U.S. dollars.

In this regard, Dr. Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research at China Merchants Securities Research and development center, told reporters yesterday, "but the problem needs to be dialectically analyzed. After all, the US dollar is still loose at the moment, but the scale of the purchase of debt is shrinking, and it is not the state of tightening up yet." Dr. Xie Yaxuan said.

After the US Q E policy boots landed, the market thought it was the same. Therefore, the early impact may be overamplified. The future trend of RMB should be more marketization, up and down or normal.