Under The Deflationary Pressure, Can The Euro Rise Against The Trend And Cut Interest Rates To Suppress The Euro?

< p > on Tuesday (April 1st), in the Asian market, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Euro < /a > was arranged below the 1.38 dollar.

After weakening CPI data on the euro area on Monday, the euro first recovered and then returned to the top 1.38.

Under the strong resistance of the bulls, or only this week's European Central Bank [micro-blog] opens the door to cut interest rates, can it really suppress the euro.

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(P) the eurozone inflation rate in March, which was released by the European Union Statistics Bureau on Monday (March 31st), dropped to a 52 month low. This increased the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to take action to curb deflation risk at the Thursday (April 3rd) policy meeting.

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< p > data show that in March, the annual growth rate of consumers in the euro zone < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > price index < /a > (CPI) decreased to 0.5%, the lowest since November 2009, and the core CPI fell from 0.8% to 0.8%.

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< p > technology, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > technical indicators < /a > MACD (12, 26, 9) main line and signal line running above zero axis, indicating strong trend of price volatility.

The relative strength index RSI is located near the 50 equilibrium, and the trend is neutral.

After the euro rebounded on Monday, it was concerned about 1.3820/30 resistance. If the resistance was effective, it could sell off at high prices.

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< p > Beijing time 09:28, the euro is 1.3770/73 against the US dollar.

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The trend of the euro against the US dollar on Monday, P, can be said to be very exciting. The reason why the exchange rate began to rise sharply in Europe was attributed to specific reasons.

On the one hand, the euro zone data released on Monday failed to anticipate the market's worries about the easing measures adopted by the European Central Bank, which led to a panic selling of the euro against the US dollar. On the other hand, it came from the US side. The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Yellen, made a big change in her speech on Monday. She stressed the danger of raising interest rates before the economy could not fully recover.

Yellen said the US economy still needs a period of time to achieve the desired goal of the Fed. There are still many idle capacity in the economic and employment market.

Yellen pointed out that the large population of long-term unemployed and unwilling to take part time jobs highlighted the idle capacity of the US economy.

Yellen said the Fed has a "large" gap in its dual functions, and the low salary growth also shows that the Fed has not done its duty.

Yellen's comments made many investors begin to believe that the wording of her speech at the press conference after the March interest conference was probably a slip of the tongue, and the US dollar index was under pressure.

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Less than P, we are concerned about the manufacturing index in Europe and Germany in the euro area. In the New York time, the US manufacturing index may also provide some directional guidance for the US dollar index. As the ECB interest rate resolution on Thursday and the European Central Bank President Delaki's speech may involve quantitative easing measures or wording, it may have a greater impact on the euro dollar exchange rate, and investors will be prudent in handling major news events before that, so the probability of market volatility before Thursday may be too large.

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< p > euro to USD 4 hour trend map, the exchange rate rebounded to the 60 average line on Monday, and was blocked down. At present, it is above the middle track of the brin belt (20), but it is still suppressed by 30 average. Under the 14 average moving line, the stability of the exchange rate is shared by the Boolean belt.

RSI shows signs of upward turning between 40-50. In the short term, the exchange rate is likely to rise steadily.

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< p > euro to us dollar daily line chart. The daily line of the exchange price receives a long propeller with long upper and lower shadow lines. The upper part is jointly suppressed by the 30 day moving average and the 14 day moving average and the brin belt (20). The upper part of the Bollinger belt (20) is supported by the 60 day moving average while the RSI is still in the 50 below, but the downward kinetic energy is reduced. In the short term, the exchange rate will also show the trend of the interval oscillation.

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