In The Middle Of The Euro, It Will Be Short.

After several months of high consolidation and weak news, the euro is expected to expand its volatility this week. In addition to Friday's US non farm payroll data and Thursday's ECB meeting, eurozone inflation data will play an important role before that. The inflation figures released in Germany and Spain hinted at the euro zone later announced later today. Inflation data Further decline. In other words, it will also be the "dangerous area" of the euro area inflation rate below 1% for sixth consecutive months. What is the ECB's response to this? I am afraid more aggressive monetary easing is a good option. Of course, these are just market speculation, data and policies must be based on actual results.

The pressure on the euro has already reflected this negative expectation. We expect the euro to reach a peak in the medium term, but the callback will not be smooth. Last Friday's small V bottom indicates that there will be a rebound at the beginning of the week. When the exchange rate rises to 1.38-1.3850, let's see if there is any chance of shorting.

Resistance level 2:1.3970

Resistance level 1:1.3850

Spot price: 1.3578

Support bit 1:1. 3700

Support bit 2:1.3640

At the beginning of March, when we discussed the Australian dollar trend to investors, we also focused on whether the Aussie dollar would form a daily chart at the bottom of the head and shoulders, all of which had a clear answer as the Australian dollar rose to 0.9150. No matter how fundamental factors are, the exchange rate breaks through this neckline position, and it is a good time to put it in any currency. The rebound in basic data in Australia also contributed to this rally, so the Aussie dollar was the best performing currency last week. But on Tuesday, the RB's policy meeting is also a ridge: the expected interest rate will remain unchanged at 2.5%, but what is the caliber of the Bank of Australia for oral intervention in the Australian dollar? As the Australian dollar goes up, will the position of the Australian dollar be strengthened again? These risk factors cause a brief profit taking from foreign exchange rates.

Aside from the policy factors, the exchange rate has a certain technical support in the 0.9220 area. The moderate adjustment should be stopped. If the risk factors are eliminated after Tuesday, the exchange rate will be the driving force for the relay.

Resistance level 2:0.9400

Resistance level 1:0.99110

Spot price: 0.9231

Support bit 1:0.9220

Support bit 2:0.9150

Friday Exchange rate Rapidly rising to form a "N" shape trend, the latter market has a tendency to go higher. But personally, it is considered that the index is slightly backward, and the upper limit is below 103, showing a slight lack of strength. It is not recommended to rush to catch up. When the exchange rate is stabilized above 103, then the admission will be considered more.

Resistance level 2:103.70

Resistance level 1:103.00

Spot price: 102.81

Support bit 1:102.70

Support bit 2:102.00

On the whole, Pound This trend is stronger than the euro this year, so some investors also choose euro / pound as a trading variety. But in terms of fundamentals, the British side is a commonplace, and there is nothing more to say. Last week, the exchange rate rebounded in the 1.6480 area, forming a more standard "bowl shaped" bottom mode. This trend is similar to that of the head and shoulders. The key to further breakthroughs is also constrained by the neckline. It can be seen from the chart that the exchange rate was sideways in the early March of 1.66-1.67, and then fell off the cliff. Now the exchange rate has climbed to this area again, that is, the area of "bowl mouth", and the first phase of the rebound is basically over. Next, it is expected that the exchange rate will be small in the 1.66-1.6670 interval. If there are two or three trading days, then the upward or downward breakthroughs will be another opportunity to follow up the operation.

Resistance level 2:1.6820

Resistance level 1:1.6700

Spot price: 1.6624

Support bit 1:1.6600

Support bit 2:1.6460