The Foundation For Long-Term Appreciation Of RMB Is Still Relatively Stable.

< p > for the current a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB > /a > exchange rate continued to weaken behind the underlying factors, the prevailing market view generally attributed to the economic fundamentals "not to force", especially in February just appeared in the monthly trade deficit and hot money outflow.

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< p > Haitong Securities said that in February, trade amounted to less than $23 billion, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > a huge deficit < /a >, which reflected the real reason of the depreciation of exchange rate in February.

Under the background of falling interest rates and deficit, we can not rule out the weakening of the RMB exchange rate for a period of time.

Guotai Junan also believes that the large scale inflow of hot money reflected in the high growth of foreign exchange and foreign exchange sales on behalf of banks in January has passed. It is estimated that hot money has flowed out in February and will face greater outflow pressure in March.

Against this background, the RMB is facing the downward pressure of reality, and the stage depreciation is expected or gradually strengthened.

The latest view of Guoxin Securities (Hongkong) further believes that the weak performance of the RMB exchange rate in the early stage can be interpreted as the central bank [micro-blog] actively guided the depreciation of the renminbi to expand the bilateral fluctuation range of the renminbi.

But on the other hand, due to the change of unilateral appreciation expectations and the adverse effects of the trade deficit, it is expected that the pressure of RMB depreciation will increase in the near future.

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< p > on the other hand, combined with the latest a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > the Fed's < /a > interest rate results, a number of institutions such as Founder Securities and Haitong Securities think that the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates ahead of schedule and the further improvement of US economic data in the two quarter may become the support force for us dollar trend in the future.

Against this background, the weakness of the US dollar in the early stage may come to an end.

If the dollar starts to become strong, the pressure and sustainability of the current RMB depreciation may exceed the market expectations, and the RMB spot exchange rate will not be reduced to about 6.30.

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< p > although the short-term market parties are more likely to further depreciate the RMB exchange rate, in view of the long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate, most institutions still believe that the basis for long-term appreciation of RMB is still relatively stable.

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< p > Guo Lian Securities pointed out that since the balance of payments is generally maintained at a high level and there is room for improvement in productivity in the future, the appreciation of the renminbi will remain the main feature in the medium and long term cycles.

From the analysis of BOC, it is believed that although the short-term trade situation deteriorates and the central bank guides the exchange rate to depreciate sharply, the foreign exchange supply and demand based on the supply and demand of the renminbi will continue to appreciate slowly in the medium and long term as the medium and long term China's balance of payments will remain unchanged.

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< p > aiming at the performance of RMB exchange rate in 2014, GF believes that although the new foreign exchange holdings in February were lower than expected, in fact, the "traffic index" of the financial institutions in the month was not too bad.

On the basis of the long term appreciation of RMB, the overall situation of RMB exchange rate and foreign exchange occupation should not be too pessimistic for this year.

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< p > in addition, the analysis from the strategic planning department of the Agricultural Bank believes that considering the unilateral appreciation of RMB is not conducive to stabilizing exports, the RMB has accumulated a large devaluation pressure in the early stage, and China still maintains a high level of trade surplus with the United States. The recent depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is not the beginning of the substantial depreciation of the RMB, but only indicates that the RMB exchange rate will return to the two-way fluctuation.

Judging from the trend of the whole year in 2014, this year's trend of RMB is expected to repeat the trend of 2012, that is, the middle price and the effective exchange rate will continue to rise slightly throughout the whole year, while the growth of foreign exchange and the inflow of hot money remain relatively low throughout the year.

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< p > in addition, the view from Hongyuan securities and other institutions pointed out that when the RMB exchange rate "fluctuates over", the monetary authorities will still intervene flexibly to prevent excessive fluctuations in unilateral appreciation or unilateral depreciation of the renminbi, and it is obviously too early to judge the RMB's long-term depreciation.

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