Detailed Analysis And Analysis Of The Situation Of Foreign Trade In The First Quarter Of 2014

< p > April 10th, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > Customs General Administration < /a > issued the first quarter import and export statistics of China.

Zheng Yuesheng, director general of the General Administration of customs and director of the comprehensive statistics department, answered questions from reporters.

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< p > reporter: in the first quarter of this year, China's foreign trade imports and exports, exports and imports showed a downward trend compared with the same period last year. Does this indicate that the downward pressure on China's foreign trade is increasing? < /p >

< p > Zheng Yuesheng: according to customs statistics, the total value of imports and exports in China in the first quarter of this year was 5 trillion and 900 billion yuan, down 3.7% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports fell by 6.1% and imports fell by 1.2%.

In terms of figures, imports and exports, exports and imports showed a year-on-year decline in the first quarter of this year, and exports fell more. This shows that China's foreign trade has indeed encountered some difficulties at present, but we can not overestimate this difficulty.

In the first quarter of last year, there were some special factors in China's foreign trade import and export, which pushed up the year-on-year base, so we can not simply think that China's foreign trade has declined.

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< p > reporter: can you explain in detail the situation of foreign trade in the first quarter for us? < /p >

< p > Zheng Yuesheng: I believe that if we deduct some special factors in the same period last year, China's foreign trade and import and export will still operate in a basically reasonable range.

This can be seen from the following aspects: < /p >

< p > first, we are still increasing the import and export of our major trading partners, and only a significant drop in Hong Kong trade.

In the first quarter of this year, the import and export of our former major trading partners, including the European Union, the United States, Japan and ASEAN, also maintained an increase. Among them, bilateral trade increased 6.3% to the US, 0.9% to the US, 2% to ASEAN and 2.6% to Japan.

Only the mainland's import and export to Hongkong fell by 33.3%, which directly affected the overall import and export growth of nearly 4 percentage points.

After the middle of April last year, the mainland's trade with Hong Kong returned to normal.

From this, we can predict that the growth rate of mainland exports to Hong Kong will rise significantly from May this year, and at the same time, it will increase the overall export and import and export growth rate.

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< p > Second, import and export of general trade still maintained a good growth momentum, and the ability of independent development of foreign trade enterprises gradually increased.

At present, the general trade reflecting China's independent development ability of foreign trade has exceeded 50% of China's foreign trade import and export value, reaching 55.2%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points over the same period last year.

In the first quarter of this year, the general trade import and export achieved a good growth of 6.4%, of which 3.4% of general trade exports and 9.2% of imports.

This shows that the structure of China's foreign trade mode is constantly optimized, and the ability of foreign trade enterprises to develop independently is constantly improving and the efficiency is also improving.

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< p > Third, exports of mobile phones, auto parts and other products are still growing, and export of labour intensive products also has a good foundation.

In the first quarter of this year, the overall export volume of China's electromechanical products decreased compared with the same period last year, but the products with larger export value such as mobile phones, auto parts, wires and cables, lamps and lanterns continued to grow year-on-year.

Although exports of traditional labor-intensive products decreased by 6.4% in the first 2 months, exports rose by 6.8% in March.

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< p > Fourth, the international market commodity price slump has slowed down the import growth rate, but the domestic market imports of major commodities are still increasing.

In the first quarter of this year, China's overall import price index was 95, indicating that China's overall import price fell 5% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, greatly reducing the overall import growth.

However, in the first quarter of this year, the import volume of major commodities in China increased generally compared with the same period last year. The total import volume index in the first quarter was 104, which means that the total import volume increased by 4%. This indicates that although the pressure of domestic economic operation downward is relatively large, the demand for bulk commodities has not decreased significantly, and import demand has maintained a greater stability.

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< p > fifth, exchange rate factors affect the growth rate of Renminbi denominated pricing.

In the first quarter of this year, China's foreign trade and import and export accounts for RMB decreased by 3.7% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 1% year-on-year in dollar terms.

Because of the fluctuation of exchange rate, the growth rate of RMB imports and exports is affected by about 2.7 percentage points.

If the US dollar is calculated, the total value of imports and exports will drop by 1% in the first quarter of this year, of which exports will drop by 3.4% and imports will increase by 1.6%.

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< p > above all, I believe that the decline of China's foreign trade in the first quarter of this year is only temporary and short term. With the influence of some special factors last year, it declined significantly after mid April. From May, China's imports and exports will grow again and will enter a relatively stable moderate growth stage.

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< p > reporter: can you make a prediction for this year's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > foreign trade < /a > situation? < /p >

< p > Zheng Yuesheng: Although the current world economic situation is still complicated, the economic trend of major economies is divided, and the new economic growth points in the world are not good enough. However, there are still many positive factors in China's foreign trade development this year, which will boost the growth of foreign trade and exports and enter a moderate growth period.

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< p > I think these positive factors are mainly in the following aspects: < /p >

< p > one is that the world economy is showing signs of warmer growth in general, and Global trade growth is expected to improve.

Recently, international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the OECD and the world bank generally agreed that global economic growth expectations in 2014 were better than those in 2013, and that the main impetus for the accelerated growth of the world economy in 2014 came from the developed economies and led the recovery of the world economy.

The world trade organization's forecast for Global trade growth in 2014 is also higher than that in 2013.

Therefore, the external environment of China's foreign trade will improve in 2014.

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< p > two is to deepen reform and create a favorable policy environment for the steady growth of foreign trade.

This year, the State Council put forward a new situation of opening up to the outside world at a high level, promoting the pilot area of free trade pilot area, expanding the opening of the inland border areas, encouraging the import of shortage products and the export of large scale complete equipment, and pressing ahead with the tasks of "one belt and one road", Meng Zhongyin Burma and China Brazil economic corridor construction.

In addition, this year, the government will further deepen reform, increase decentralization, and innovate the system and mechanism.

The implementation of these important policy decisions, the implementation of policies and measures and the continuous release of the dividend reform have created a favorable policy environment for the steady growth of China's foreign trade. At the same time, we have continuously strengthened the confidence of our foreign trade enterprises, stimulated the innovative vitality of foreign trade enterprises, and helped foreign trade enterprises take the initiative to cultivate and develop new competitive advantages in the fierce international competition.

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< p > three is to accelerate the pace of "going global" and drive export growth of investment related products.

In recent years, China's "going out" strategy has achieved remarkable results, and the scale of foreign investment cooperation has been expanding.

According to the United Nations World Investment Report, China has become the third largest foreign investor in the world in 2012.

According to the Ministry of commerce data, as of the end of 2013, China's total non-financial foreign direct investment stock amounted to US $525 billion 700 million. In 2013, the new contract amount of foreign contracted projects in China amounted to US $171 billion 630 million, an increase of 9.6% over the same period last year.

The rapid growth of foreign investment and economic cooperation will drive the growth of exports and complete processing trade of investment related complete sets of equipment in China.

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< p > four is China's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "foreign trade export < /a" leading index shows that exports in the next 2-3 months are relatively optimistic.

In March this year, China's foreign trade export index was 41.7, up 0.4 from last month.

In the first quarter, the average monthly export lead index was 41.6, which was significantly higher than that of 39.4 in the fourth quarter of last year.

China's exports are expected to be relatively optimistic in the two quarter, and the growth rate has picked up compared with the first quarter.

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