The Two Decline In The Size Of The State Reserve Purchase Price Is Faced With Three Policy Pressures.

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< p > entering the two quarter, the domestic cotton market is facing the negative pressure of the three policies: 2013/2014's policy of collecting and storing the state, resetting the rules for dumping and storage, and issuing policies and regulations for direct subsidy.

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Under the guidance of policy, the probability of domestic supply increase is greater than that of p; while downstream demand is expected to be improved under the expected price of raw materials, and the adjustment of product prices will be more flexible, which will play a role in improving the long-term downstream orders.

It is estimated that downstream demand will gradually recover from weakness in the two quarter.

Therefore, in the face of loose policy and loose supply and demand, it is estimated that domestic cotton will be under pressure in the two quarter and continue to be vulnerable.

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< p > < strong > National Reserve < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/ > > acquisition < /a > scale decrease < /strong > /p >

< p > after two consecutive years of large-scale acquisition of state reserve cotton, after the first quarter of this year, the volume of purchase and storage declined.

Up to the end of January, the storage and storage of the central storage reached 5 million 800 thousand tons, and the actual paction ratio dropped from about 50% to 30%. Although the storage and storage work started on schedule, from the stage of performance, the actual paction volume of the central storage cotton is still declining, the average daily level is maintained at 30 thousand tons, the average is 20 thousand tons lower than before the festival, and as of March 25th, the total turnover reached 6 million 200 thousand tons, which is expected to be limited after the increase.

The decline in the scale of purchasing and storage has further weakened the anticipation of the late market support effect.

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< p > < strong > the selling pressure of national cotton reserves is increasing gradually < /strong > < /p >

< p > relative to the performance of purchasing and storage, the turnover volume of the tossed stock increased first and then decreased in the first quarter.

The performance in 1-2 months is relatively strong, and turnover is on the rise.

But after the Spring Festival, although the initial stage is still rising, but in late 3 months, the situation is obviously not as good as before, and the daily turnover is declining.

As of March 25th, the total turnover was only 700 thousand tons.

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< p > at present, the new regulation of suspected dumping and storage has been promulgated.

According to the China Cotton Association's paper, the reserve price of the reserve cotton outlet has been adjusted from 18000 yuan / ton to 17250 yuan / ton; according to the circulation, there may be some adjustment in regard to other rules for throwing and storing: after the new adjustment, the new reserve will reserve a certain proportion of the sliding tax allocation to the enterprises that are bidding for the cotton reserves; auction the stored cotton stored at the Xinjiang storage point, auction the imported cotton reserve according to the proportion of 3:1, allow the < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > the enterprise does not limit the bid for the reserve cotton, but temporarily restrict the middlemen to enter the market paction.

In the two quarter, the main factor of the leading cotton market is undeniable.

Under the influence of this policy, cotton prices remain weak and the probability of shocks is relatively large.

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< p > < strong > direct subsidy policy is expected to fall down to < /strong > /p >

< p > "collection and storage" to "direct subsidy" is the result of constantly changing market forces.

The adjustment indicates that the future minimum purchase price policy and the temporary purchase and storage policy will shift to the "price premium separation".

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"P" comprehensively examines the domestic current grain policy and the foreign cotton subsidy policy. We expect that the direct subsidy policy made by the country this year mainly covers two aspects of the direct subsidy and the target price. We have made a forecast for this: < /p >.

< p > on the one hand, if we draw lessons from the national grain direct subsidy policy, based on the stable consideration of cotton grain price ratio, we expect cotton farmers' Cotton (lint cotton) direct subsidy to be 1000 yuan ~1300 yuan / ton.

Drawing lessons from the national grain direct subsidy policy, from the second half of this year, the Cotton Subsidy Policy for cotton farmers will be launched, and preferential support to the key areas of Xinjiang will be implemented. According to the reasonable price ratio of grain and cotton 1:8 and 1:8.5 in recent years, the cotton subsidy will be 1000 yuan ~1300 yuan per ton of cotton according to the cotton planting quantity of cotton farmers.

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< p > on the other hand, if we refer to the Cotton Subsidy Program in the United States, the estimated target price will be set at 19200 yuan / ton based on the cost of lint and the interests of the upstream and downstream industries.

According to the average yield of 500 kg of seed cotton in Xinjiang, the cost of seed cotton planting in Xinjiang is 17600 yuan / ton, and the cost of conversion to lint is simply 18740 yuan / ton.

Taking into account the upstream and downstream interests of the industrial chain, it is estimated that the target price will be set at 19240 yuan / ton according to the Xinjiang profit of 500 yuan / ton in 2013.

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< p > slow recovery of downstream demand < /p >

< p > data show that downstream textile and < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > export data showed a marked decline in February, a decrease of 62% compared with the previous month, the decrease was 72.07% from last month, an increase of 28.73% over the same period last year.

Downstream domestic consumption of textiles and clothing is also not satisfactory.

In 2014 1-2, the total retail sales of 50 large enterprises in China dropped by 2.5% over the same period last year.

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< p > therefore, the demand for downstream products in the first quarter is still not out of the trend of deceleration.

Entering the two quarter, downstream industries will gradually enter the peak season of production and marketing.

We expect that the downstream orders will improve in the two quarter as the price of products declines, and downstream demand will enter a slow recovery phase. However, effective changes will still take some time to deliberate.

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< p > generally speaking, cotton is still mainly suppressed by bad policy in the two quarter. It is difficult to see a sharp rise in market prices. It is suggested that high flying short selling be appropriate.

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