RMB Spot Exchange Rate Fell Below 6.21 Export Figures Less Than Expected

10 days in Middle price The downward trend of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market has been lowered, and the renminbi's spot exchange rate against the US dollar has hit its biggest one-day drop since March 26th.

Market participants said that yesterday's decline is still in the normal range of fluctuation, which can not be determined that the RMB has entered a devaluation again. It is expected that the two-way fluctuation of RMB is still a short-term normal, and there is still a certain pressure of appreciation in the medium term.

According to the China foreign exchange trading center, on the 10 day, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1510, which was 20 basis points lower than the previous trading day, and a sharp departure from the overnight dollar index's sharp fall of 0.33%.

On that day, the renminbi was reversed. dollar The spot exchange rate was sharply lower at 125 basis points at 6.2130, but it quickly rebounded near the closing price of the first day. However, as China's import and export data were released in March, the exchange rate went down again, ending at 6.2125, down 120 basis points or 0.19% from the previous day's closing.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's exports declined for second consecutive months in March. Imported Also fell unexpectedly, the trade surplus narrowed 60.9% to 7 billion 700 million U.S. dollars over the same period.

Market participants said that the import and export data fell short of expectations, deepened the market for China's economic downturn and the management of the introduction of currency devaluation and other stimulus policies, the central parity of the initiative to reduce prices, but also stimulated the market short term bearish RMB sentiment.

However, analysts pointed out that in the short term, the renminbi is still in a relatively weak position, but the probability of restart depreciation is limited. On the one hand, although the trade surplus is small, it still plays an important role in supporting the RMB. On the other hand, the weaker export figures are mainly due to the high base number and external demand caused by false trade in the same period last year. With the decline of the cardinal factors and the gradual warming of the peripheral economy, exports in the two quarter are expected to rise steadily.

Further, as the economy stabilizes, the renminbi is expected to reenter the slow appreciation process at the end of the two quarter.