The Renminbi Dropped Slightly In The Afternoon Against The US Dollar, And The Middle Price Went Down Again.

The spot exchange rate against the US dollar (6.2191, 0.0078, 0.13%) dropped slightly after Monday afternoon (April 14th), and the middle price weakened to a week low. At the beginning of the market, there was a round of clearing overnight positions, and the US dollar sell-off was relatively large. But then foreign investment banks bought foreign exchange to suppress the RMB exchange rate.

The US dollar / RMB inquiry system was reported at 6.2120 noon and 6.2113 last Friday. US dollar / RMB central bank Middle price It was 6.1531, and last Friday the middle price was 6.1495.

Overseas without Principal In the delivery of forward foreign exchange (NDF) market, the US dollar / RMB one year variety is newly reported at 6.2408/54, and last week's five was 6.2345. The latest offshore dollar / RMB spot report in Hongkong was 6.2129/49, and the last trading day was 6.2090.

Traders said the supply and demand of the customers were basically balanced, and the turnover was rather light. It is estimated that the direction of short-term RMB exchange rate is not clear, the probability of wide and low shocks is higher, but the medium and long term will still be strong.

Other traders believe that the relative balance of passenger and ship transactions, the future trend is not very clear, short-term RMB material to maintain broad and low-level shocks, after all, the economic data is not ideal. RMB The probability of short-term rise is low, and the short-term estimate is running in the weak interval of 6.20-6.25.

Zhu Guangyao, Vice Minister of finance of China, said that in the next ten years, China's economy will have full potential to grow at a rate of 7% to 8%. If a large-scale stimulus policy is launched due to short-term fluctuations, the long-term development strategy will be lost.

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After the March foreign trade data was released, the market generally reflected that exports were not as good as expected. Data from the General Administration of Customs show that in March, China's import and export value decreased by 9% compared with the same period last year, of which exports decreased by 6.6% compared with the same period last year, while imports dropped 11.3% compared with the same period last month, and the trade surplus of that month was 7 billion 710 million US dollars. Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research at China Merchants Securities, said that the high base in the same period last year was the main reason for the negative growth of exports in March. As imports fell more than exports, the balance of trade in March was reversed by trade surplus. The domestic trade balance has obvious seasonality, and the trade surplus in February is the lowest in the whole year. The 3-4 month will gradually return to the mean. The low trade balance will help to improve the expected stability of the RMB exchange rate. At the present time, the RMB exchange rate does not have the condition of long-term depreciation.

Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of communications, believes that China's exports account for about 10% of global exports. This is the embodiment of overall strength and is hard to lose overnight. In the coming period, China's trade surplus will still reach a certain scale. On the other hand, in the next three to five years, China's economic growth is likely to remain in the range of 7% to 8%. Under the keynote of prudent monetary policy, interest rates will remain at a high level, while foreign exchange reserves will move forward to 4 trillion US dollars, and the surplus of capital and financial accounts will hardly change. Therefore, it is difficult for RMB to have a trend of devaluation.

The Research Report of Shenyin Wanguo believes that with the expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB being broken, the enthusiasm of enterprises and banks will weaken, and the amount of long-term net settlement will also decline. And the risk of hot money arbitrage will also increase significantly. The gradual tightening of monetary policy in developed countries will reduce the spread between China and abroad, which will reduce the power of institutions to seek the combination of local assets and foreign exchange liabilities, reduce foreign currency loans and reduce foreign exchange reserves. The upward trend of foreign currency earnings has further reduced the attraction of hot money to arbitrage in China.