RMB Spot Rate Adjusted To A New Low

< p > < strong > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > spot price < /a > depreciation has exceeded 3% since the beginning of the year < /strong > /p >

< p > for nearly two weeks, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has changed the trend of concussion from late March to early April. Both the intermediate price and the spot price have both reached a new low level.

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< p > from < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > intermediate price < /a >, the recent weakening of the RMB against the US dollar and the rise of the US dollar index complement each other.

In mid April, with the weather improved, the US economic data released in recent years were mostly stronger, and the US dollar rebounded against most currencies. As of April 21st, the US dollar index gained seven consecutive Yang and returned to the 80 integer pass.

Against this background, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar weakened, hitting a new low of more than 7 months in 6.1610 on 22 April, a cumulative depreciation of 641 basis points or 1% at the end of last year.

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< p > however, because of the reduction of US dollar positions in the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "dollar" /a "after rising, the US dollar index weakened slightly on the 22 day, which led to a slight rebound in the RMB intermediate price on the 23 day.

On the 23 day, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1599, which rose 11 basis points over 23 days.

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< p > compared with the intermediate price, the RMB yuan against the US dollar has a particularly sharp drop in spot price.

Following the 22 day's synchronized low price with the central parity, on the 23 day, the spot exchange rate of the yuan against the US dollar rose slightly only at the opening price and followed the central price. After that, it restarted the adjustment and dropped to 16 of the 6.2466 month.

But with the gradual rise in the afternoon, the spot exchange rate eventually closed at 6.2376, down 1 basis points from the previous day's closing price.

At that point, the spot exchange rate hit a new closing low for the year, which has depreciated by 1837 basis points or 3.03% at the end of last year.

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< p > < strong > rising is not easy to fall, but also difficult to < /strong > < /p >

< p > it is worth mentioning that in the recent adjustment process, the deviation of the spot price between the RMB and the US dollar has increased again, reflecting the warming of the short-term market sentiment.

Data show that as of 23 days, the deviation between the spot closing price of the RMB against the US dollar and the middle price reached 777 basis points, which was significantly larger than the 441 base points of 8 days.

Some foreign exchange traders said that the recent RMB market derogatory in the spot market was mainly due to the increase in demand for foreign exchange purchase. The signs of central bank intervention were not obvious. It is expected that if there is no central bank intervention, the spot exchange rate is expected to slow down to 6.26.

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< p > at present, the market generally believes that the recent short term warming of the RMB market mainly includes the following reasons: first, the US dollar continues to strengthen slightly, and the US dollar assets attract short-term international capital attraction; second, the first quarter data confirm that China's economic growth is down, or some foreign investors choose to withdraw from Renminbi assets temporarily; third, under the background of economic downturns, the market expects our monetary policy to turn to neutral and loose, and the US Federal Reserve is gradually withdrawing from the QE.

In addition, some market people said that some of the large state-owned enterprises' foreign debt matures recently, and their debt service demand has also led to an increase in the purchase of foreign exchange.

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< p > for the future market, some market participants say that short term bearish sentiment is expected to suppress the RMB until the economic bottoming up is confirmed. Therefore, at least until the next round of economic data comes out, the RMB exchange rate will continue to be weak and will not rule out the possibility of a new low.

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< p > but at the same time, from the viewpoint of many analysts, the impetus for RMB to continue downward will be limited for a period of time when the accumulated depreciation rate has exceeded 3% during the year.

To the domestic economy and asset prices, a significant impact on the domestic economy and asset prices has been reported recently. Secondly, the quarterly export losses of some aviation listed companies have been seen in the first quarter. Secondly, the new export orders for PMI in China have been rising to the expansion interval, and the early depreciation effect is gradually showing up. In April, the export situation is expected to further improve and boost the RMB accordingly. Third, although the interest rate gap between China and foreign countries has narrowed, the tightening of the Fed policy will not happen overnight. In the medium term, the interest rate factor still has great attraction for overseas arbitrage funds. The hot money inflow is still in the mid-term support for the RMB. Fourth, as Qilu Securities pointed out, the stability of exchange rate is the primary prerequisite for accelerating the opening up of the capital market and promoting the internationalization of RMB, and the space for the depreciation of the RMB will also be limited. "Fourth," first of all, if a sustained substantial depreciation is possible,

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