The Trend Of RMB Exchange Rate Is Not Around The US Dollar Cycle.

P, the euro and yen in developed countries have been devalued.

The euro exchange rate against the US dollar has been small since 2008, but it is still a depreciation trend. The yen depreciated to more than 20% against the US dollar in 2013.

At the same time, influenced by "Andouble economics", the yen continued to depreciate in 2014.

Currencies in emerging market countries are also challenged by the US dollar.

Since 2014, many emerging market currencies such as Turkey, Argentina, South Africa, Brazil and Russia have continued to decline and even hit a new low.

Even the yuan has been on the rise since 2014, especially since 2005, and has depreciated about 2.5% against the US dollar since 1994.

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Why does the US dollar affect all other major currencies in the world? What determines the direction of the US dollar movement? Where will the US dollar go in 2014? Where should the renminbi go? < /p > p

< p > all this may change from the global strategy of the US dollar.

In 1971, the US dollar was decoupled from gold. Before that, the United States was a manufacturing power and walked on the path of industrial capitalism. After that, the United States took the road of financial capitalism and became a financial empire from a strong manufacturing country.

After the "Nixon shock" in 1971, the dollar price was decoupled from the gold price and officially became the "credit currency". The dollar standard system officially entered the stage of history and opened a new chapter in the history of human currency.

At the same time, the US dollar has a floating exchange rate system with the major powers, and the global monetary and financial systems are more closely linked with the US dollar. The US dollar hegemony has been formally formed, and the Fed has become the de facto global central bank.

It can be said that since then, the US dollar currency has been closely related to the global economic and financial structure, and its ups and downs are closely related to the magnificent economic fortunes of the world.

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Since the birth of the P dollar, it has the independent root of the economy, and it is not a passive reflection of the economic activity itself, especially its strong endogenous cycle characteristics.

To relax the historical horizon, from the medium and long term time scales, in the stage of financial capitalism, the movement of the dollar has obvious cyclical characteristics.

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< p > from the time perspective, the US dollar exchange rate index has experienced three weak downwards and three strong UPS up to now, the average length of the downlink process is about 10 years, and the uplink process is 5 years or so.

The inflection points are in August 1979, August 1984, July 1995, May 2001 and March 2011.

1971-1979 years, 1986-1995 years, and 2002 -2011 were the weak dollar cycles; 1980-1985 years, 1996-2001 years, and 2011 were the strong dollar cycles.

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< p > from the perspective of cycle characteristics, the US dollar index is in the upstream channel.

Clean energy, represented by shale gas and the development of information and communication technology represented by the Internet, will completely change the layout of the world economy. The United States will return to the high-end manufacturing industry, and the expansion of the production market brought by the new technological revolution will push the economy towards a new round of prosperity.

Capital flows into the us to boost the strength of the US dollar. In addition, the US QE quantitative easing exit policy also accelerates capital outflow in the world, especially in emerging market economies.

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Looking back at history, we can see that the internal cycle of the US dollar has become the most significant financial force in the global economic fluctuation, and the direct impact of the P determines the world economic cycle.

Although the US dollar has experienced several cycles of fluctuation, the RMB exchange rate has largely followed its own evolutionary trajectory in the past decades, as if it had never been included in the dollar standard monetary system. However, since January 2014, the trend of RMB to us dollar exchange rate has suddenly reversed considerably. As at the end of March 2014, the RMB has depreciated more than 2.5% against the US dollar.

Is this change accidental? From the combing of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > US dollar cycle < /a >, we think that this change is not only accidental, but also worth our attention.

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Less than P. Since China formally joined the WTO in 2001, it has fully integrated into the world trade system and is more and more deeply integrated into the global economic division of labor. China's exchange rate trend is more and more related to the change of the US dollar cycle.

For example, since 2005, the value of the renminbi has generally appreciated, which is basically the same as that of the US dollar during the period. In addition, the latest weak depreciation cycle of the US dollar and the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar are also in sync.

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< p style= "text-align: justify > >, at present, the problem of" a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" RMB "/a > exchange rate has to go from home to the present. The domestic view is that China's current" a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" fiscal "> fiscal" risk "is controllable, financial risk is controllable, foreign exchange reserves are abundant, and the ability to resist external shocks is strong, and the RMB exchange rate does not exist on the basis of substantial depreciation.

However, combined with the previous analysis, we have noticed that since 2011, the US dollar has entered a new appreciation cycle, and the story of currency crisis has indeed been staged again in Latin America and some emerging markets.

Can China escape the impact of US dollar cyclical fluctuations? This requires us to clearly understand the current situation.

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< p > in the stage of financial capitalism, the key of global capital is not the total quantity but the flow direction.

Once the US Dollar gets stronger, the money will flow back to the US.

This is why in the past dollar appreciation process, emerging economies are prone to the main cause of financial crisis caused by capital flight.

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< p > maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate and adhering to the strategy of "steadily rising" may be the most important strategic layout to prevent the outflow of funds.

Of course, the RMB exchange rate policy also needs to be taken care of by such a deterministic and trend policy.

The recent devaluation of the RMB is a very beautiful way of blocking. On the one hand, it promotes the market to break the expectation of unilateral appreciation. On the one hand, it is conducive to the withdrawal of some speculative accounts.

In addition, the further expansion of the exchange rate will help to enhance the floating elasticity of RMB exchange rate and increase the uncertainty of risk and return of speculative capital, which will help to form the RMB exchange rate market mechanism and combat speculative capital.

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