The Reason For The Depreciation Of RMB Has Surfaced.

This year, the continued depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has led to widespread speculation in the market. Today, with the release of the central bank's foreign currency assets data in March, this reason is emerging.

The balance sheet of the monetary authority of the people's Bank of China, which was updated on 7, showed that the new central bank increased its foreign exchange reserves by 174 billion 200 million yuan in March, while the financial institutions' foreign exchange accounted for 189 billion 200 million yuan in the same period.

Foreign exchange is the national currency that the central bank and Commercial Bank acquire foreign exchange assets. Residents and enterprises often sell part of their foreign exchange earnings to commercial banks, and commercial banks sell them to the central bank again. On the statistical caliber, it is divided into central bank's foreign exchange account and central bank and financial institutions' full diameter foreign exchange.

Analysts believe that the central bank's newly increased foreign exchange reserves and the full range of new foreign exchange are closer to this fact, to a certain extent explained the reasons for the continued depreciation of the RMB this year: foreign exchange data show that through the central bank's efforts to buy US dollars and sell renminbi to commercial banks, the central bank will continue to weaken, and ultimately the intention is to increase the arbitrage speculative costs and break the unilateral appreciation of the renminbi.

Under the current foreign exchange management system in China, the central bank plays an important role as a counterparty in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, people often observe the central bank's participation in the foreign exchange market through the change in the foreign exchange rate of the central bank.

According to past historical data, if the central bank's foreign exchange quota is relatively close to the full diameter foreign exchange occupation of financial institutions at a certain stage, it indicates that the central bank has taken full efforts to buy US dollar. appreciation The pace tends to slow down or even weaken.

For example, in February of this year, the central bank increased its foreign exchange holdings by nearly 119 billion 300 million yuan, while the financial institutions' total foreign exchange accounted for 128 billion 200 million yuan in the same period, and the two were almost the same. In the same period last year, the amount of foreign exchange purchased by the central bank was only half of that of the full diameter foreign exchange fund. At that time, the RMB exchange rate went out of a strong upward trend.

"The ultimate goal of the central bank in controlling foreign exchange settlement is" exchange rate " Yang Weixiao, a senior analyst at Lian Xin securities, believes that the ultimate goal of the central bank's efforts to purchase foreign exchange is to curb the appreciation of the renminbi. The central bank's action, together with the policy of expanding the RMB exchange rate fluctuation in March 17th, has a direct impact on the current trend of the RMB exchange rate.

Economists Yu Yongding It seems that the RMB devaluation trend in the first quarter is indeed inseparable from the central bank's foreign exchange purchase behavior.

"For a long time, due to the stable expectation of RMB appreciation and the positive spread between China and the United States, the arbitrage activities of cross-border capital are too rampant. Arbitrage, arbitrage and speculation weakened the effectiveness of China's monetary policy, undermined China's financial stability, led to mismatch of China's financial resources and welfare losses. The sudden devaluation of the renminbi has broken the expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB and increased the risk and cost of arbitrage, arbitrage, speculation and overseas financing activities, which helped to curb the inflow of hot money and maintain financial stability. Yu Yongding said.

Previously, the outflow of cross-border capital was once the main reason for the market to speculate on the continued depreciation of the renminbi, but Yu Yongding believes that if there is no intervention in the central bank's foreign exchange purchase, capital outflow is not enough to cause the RMB to depreciate by 3%.

Dong Tao, chief economist of Credit Suisse, also believes that the central bank is really guiding the depreciation of the renminbi. Its goal is to crack down on short-term speculators betting on RMB appreciation, with a view to breaking the trend of "one-way appreciation".