Experts Refute The US Dollar Collapse Due To China'S Foreign Exchange Reserves Operation

Reporter: according to past historical data, if the central bank's caliber < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > foreign exchange reserve < /a > is close to the full diameter foreign exchange occupation of financial institutions at a certain stage, it shows that the central bank has taken full efforts to buy into the US dollar. At this stage, the appreciation rate of the RMB exchange rate tends to slow down or even weaken P strong.

Therefore, market participants generally believe that the foreign exchange data show that the central bank has been buying the US dollar and selling renminbi to commercial banks, guiding the RMB to continue to weaken. The ultimate intention is to increase the arbitrage speculative cost and break the unilateral appreciation expectation of RMB.

Do you agree with such a judgement? < /strong > < /p >

< p > Fu Peng: I think this is indeed true, and there is another factor. On the one hand, in addition to vigorously squeezing a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > arbitrage capital < /a >, in fact, in the past year or so, that is, from May of last year, after the safe began to investigate the downward financing behavior and Arbitrage Behavior of trade, in fact, this idea is actually the behavior of mortgage hot money and arbitrage capital, in fact, the overall idea has not changed.

On the other hand, in the whole quarter, in fact, China's economy showed a downward trend.

It is the pressure of the economy. In the process, our central government has been emphasizing that it is necessary to ensure economic growth, but it can not be stimulated on a large scale. This has created a dilemma. How can we ensure growth in a situation where the economy is in a weak adjustment?

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< p >, therefore, in this process, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > export < /a > changes become a very crucial factor.

That is, in fact, in the middle of the three carriages, in fact, since consumption can not be invested on a large scale, we say that consumption is a cyclical thing, so it can only be protected by exports.

At this time, the change of exchange rate is extremely sensitive.

If the renminbi actively devalued under the intervention of the central bank, we could see that in January, the contraction of our trade surplus actually occurred and our exports continued to decline, which is actually not conducive to our steady economic growth.

Because the moderate adjustment of the central bank under the intervention of the central bank has brought us in the past one to two months, and in March and April, we have seen our export data, including the process of our trade surplus beginning to return as a normal economy, which may in fact be another layer of intention of the central bank to intervene in the money market.

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< p > < strong > reporter: so later, we will combine the trend of RMB to analyze and judge the latest trade figures released in April and 1 to April to further judge the relationship and influence.

The central bank has achieved great success in giving speculators "lessons". For the future trend of RMB, China's continued large volume of trade and general current account surplus have not determined that the RMB exchange rate will not continue to decline. < /strong > < /p >

< p > Fu Peng: first, there is no doubt that the RMB does not have the premise of mass depreciation. There is no doubt that there is no collapse in China's economy now. We are nothing more than a change in quality and speed in the process of active economic adjustment. Plus, we are still in double surplus. Although the double surplus is shrinking, we are still in a situation of high double difference.

It is hard to imagine that the RMB has depreciated on a large scale. Besides, the renminbi is still in existence. We are trying to market, but it is still in a state of non marketization.

Although our fluctuation space has increased to 2%, you can see that the middle price fluctuates around the banks. At that time, when the time is right, the central bank has the ability to intervene, no matter its excessive appreciation or excessive depreciation.

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< p > the central bank's central price plus 1% to 2%, and it can take the initiative to buy the US dollar to sell RMB or buy RMB to sell the US dollar to intervene in the market through the relationship between the central bank's foreign exchange quota and foreign exchange.

Therefore, it is impossible for the renminbi to show a situation of massive depreciation. The economy says we are gradually showing this marketization, but this marketization process may still take some time.

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< p > strong > reporter: two-way fluctuation should be a big trend.

At the same time, the exchange rate of the US dollar against major currencies has collapsed on the whole, while the US dollar index has repeatedly tested the 79 integer pass, setting a new low in 7 months.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that in the case of non farm and other US economic data, the US dollar did not rise or fall, which was abnormal. They believed that the collapse of the US dollar was caused by China's foreign exchange reserve operation.

However, from the published data, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 769 billion 800 million yuan in the first quarter, and foreign exchange reserves showed a significant increase. Is there a direct relationship between the decline in US dollar and our foreign exchange reserves? < /strong > /p >

< p > Fu Peng: there is virtually no relationship between the two, because when we discuss whether the US dollar is going down or going up, we often like to see the so-called US dollar index, but in fact, we are using the US dollar trade weighted index in more professional fields. This index can more reflect the real appreciation and depreciation of the dollar.

Because the traditional US dollar index is calculated in accordance with the power of the euro, so every change in Europe will directly involve the change of the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar, which will affect the change of the US dollar index closely. Therefore, the US dollar index is more reflected in the situation between Europe and the United States. It does not reflect the real rise and fall of the dollar in real terms after the trade weighted.

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< p > therefore, in fact, this does not have the representational significance in real sense. Moreover, China should now say that foreign exchange reserves are in fact, we are trying to diversify, but it can not completely replace the US dollar in the true sense.

So China and the United States are still on board. If we sell the US debt on a large scale, I am afraid we will be implicated in the end. Therefore, I think there is a conspiracy theory in this speculation.

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