RMB Exchange Rate Is Expected To Bottom In The Two Quarter

< p > 7, the balance sheet of the monetary authority updated by the people's Bank of China (CBOC) shows that in March, the new central bank increased the foreign exchange quota to 174 billion 200 million yuan, while the financial institutions accounted for 189 billion 200 million yuan in the same period.

Because the data from the two caliber have been almost the same for second consecutive months, and all of them appear in the period of RMB devaluation, "the central bank has promoted the RMB a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "> depreciation" /a > ", which has become a general speculation in the market.

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< p > "the gap between the central bank's caliber and the new a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "> foreign exchange reserve /a < < /a > basically disappeared. To a certain extent, it shows that the commercial banks themselves did not retain the foreign exchange and sold most of them to the central bank.

This situation may come from two aspects. First, commercial banks actively sell foreign exchange to the central bank, and the two is the central bank actively buying foreign exchange.

Of course, the second possibility is even greater. "

On the 8 day, Professor Li Yongkai, director of the international financial research center of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, analyzed the Economic Herald reporter.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Li Yongkai < /a > indicates that under the current foreign exchange management system of our country, the central bank plays a more active role in the foreign exchange market. By controlling the scale of foreign exchange purchase to commercial banks, it can really affect the RMB exchange rate.

"Of course, this also means that the market can observe the change of foreign exchange assets through the central bank and commercial banks to observe whether it intervenes in the foreign exchange market."

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< p > professor Wu Min, an international financial research expert at University of International Business and Economics, also told reporters that although the central bank's purchase of foreign exchange has many aspects of consideration, the RMB has continued to depreciate against the US dollar in the first quarter of this year, and indeed there is a component of supervision.

"It is mainly against exchange rate depreciation to fight short-term arbitrage funds and stabilize financial markets."

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< p > however, the two experts all said that the purchase of foreign exchange by the central bank is quite extensive, which will not only affect the foreign exchange market, but also affect the intensity of domestic money supply and the liquidity of the market.

Under the keynote of "maintaining stability", the operation of the central bank in this respect will be more cautious in the future.

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< p > "especially when the fluctuation range of the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is enlarged, the market dominance becomes stronger, and the central bank will further retreat behind the scenes."

Wu Min said.

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"P" for the future trend of the RMB exchange rate, Li Yongkai said that the current fed again contracted QE favorable dollar rise, the recent appreciation of the renminbi is not much pressure.

At the same time, because of the downward adjustment for many months, the depreciation of the RMB has not been enough.

Coupled with the central bank's intention to combat arbitrage funds in its operation, "in the two quarter, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is more likely to stabilize, but there will be frequent two-way fluctuations between 6.1 and 6.2, and exchange rate elasticity has increased."

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