The Data Is Good, But The Pound Is Fading.

< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > > inflation report > /a > does not imply advance interest rate increase. Strong pound is self destructive. < /strong > /p >

< p > before the announcement of today's quarterly inflation report, the market has a large scale < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > investor < /a >. It is expected that this report will leak or hint more about the wording of raising interest rate in advance, but the final result is a disappointment to many.

Despite strong data, the Bank of England tends to wait for more evidence to start raising interest rates.

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< p > the central bank's quarterly inflation report says that the unemployment rate is expected to decrease, and the current equilibrium unemployment rate is expected to be 6.0-6.5% (which is the same as expected in February), which will fall to 5.25-5.75% in three years.

The monetary policy committee (MPC) still believes that there is still room for further reduction of idle capacity in the interest rate hike, and that when MPC decides to raise interest rates, it is expected that it will only be implemented step by step and significantly lower than pre crisis levels.

In addition, President Carney said that the unemployment rate in Britain is still far above the estimated equilibrium level, and there is still idle labor force in the UK employment market.

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The unemployment rate of the UK released in April is 3.3%, and the former value is 3.4%. The unemployment rate of ILO in the three months from the United Kingdom to March is 6.8%, the lowest in the three months as February 2009, 6.8% is expected, and the former value is 6.9%; the average annual wage excluding dividends in the three months from the United Kingdom to March has increased by 1.3%, the expected increase is 1.5%, the former value has increased by 1.4%; the average annual salary increase from the British to March months, including the dividend, is increasing, and the expected value is rising.

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< p > Royal Bank of Scotland believes that UK labour market data seem to have strengthened the DOB position of the Bank of England, or at least those policy makers keen to rely on pre emptive exit policies.

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Kit Juckes, an analyst at P SocGen, wrote a change in the situation in the client's report, and mentioned how the market bet on the Bank of England (BOE) to raise interest rates from a long time ago.

The report was released before the release of the UK employment data. The main idea is as follows: the market now expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates later in 2014, betting that it will raise interest rates by 15 basis points in December. It is estimated that the interest rate difference between the UK and the US will widen from 30 base points to 80 basis points by the middle of next year.

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< p > pound has always been a promising star currency. However, after the announcement of the Bank of England, the short term bulls have been shaken. In the face of the 1 thousand and 700 point, there is expected to be considerable profit taking.

The 1.6770/50 line is now a support at the weekly level. If the closing of the week line breaks down in the region, the downtrend is likely to expand to below 1.65. However, the material advantage of the interest margin and the strong fundamentals will give the Bulls some support and uplink resistance at 1.6830 and 1.6900.

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< p > < strong > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > USD index < /a > five even Yang, before rising or need to be consolidated < /strong > /p >

< p > US dollar index was stable after last week's reversal, and the daily line chart formed a five Lian Yang market.

Even though the retail data released yesterday did not perform well and the Fed would not quickly tighten measures in the near future, investors were more worried about the euro zone's interest rate reduction factors.

In particular, the CPI data in Germany and France are not so strong. Next month, the ECB seems to have more reasons to take some actions, < /p >

Lockhart, chairman of the Atlanta Fed chairman, said in a previous speech that only when the US economy changed drastically, would it suspend or reverse the pace of quantitative easing (QE) withdrawal from P.

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< p > intra day data show that the April consumer price index (CPI) in Germany slipped 0.2% from the previous month, up 1.3% from the same period last year.

Germany's CPI final value fell 0.2% in April, the expected value dropped by 0.2%, and the former value dropped by 0.2%. In April, the inflation rate rose by 0.8% in April, compared with the expected increase of 0.9%.

France's April CPI rate was flat, with an expected increase of 0.1% and a rise of 0.5% in the previous period.

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< p > despite the fact that the US dollar seems to be keeping good news on the news, however, the market has the opportunity to make some adjustments and go up again when it is close to the important resistance of the previous trend line and some excessive short-term gains.

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The US dollar index exceeded 80 this week, suggesting the bull control situation. However, the downward trend line from January 2014 to April is still in front of us, with the overbought situation of the hourly chart, the market or profit taking.

The Bulls need to break up 80.18 of Tuesday's high point to further rebound to 80.40 and 80.70, while the underlying support is seen at 80 and 79.70.

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