Revaluation Of RMB And Appreciation Of The Renminbi

< p > according to foreign media reports, in May 13th, the strategic economic dialogue between China and the United States, which was held in HUAWEI this summer, was "preheated" by Lu, who stressed to the vice premier of the Chinese Premier Wang Yang at the Diaoyutai State Guest House that "the formation mechanism of the RMB market is very important".

After the speech, the RMB exchange rate rebounded.

Although yesterday's morning data showed that the US dollar was 6.1636 against the central parity, it continued to rise by 11 basis points on the previous day.

However, in the subsequent spot market pactions, the RMB exchange rate was lower and higher.

At the close, the spot exchange rate of US dollar against RMB was 6.2291, down 84 basis points from the previous trading day.

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< p > some international experts have expressed relatively pertinent opinions about the RMB exchange rate issue mentioned by Lu.

Based on purchasing power parity indicators, researchers from the Pedersen Research Institute of the United States recently concluded that the renminbi is no longer in an "undervalued" state.

Ronald I. Mckinnon, a professor at Stanford University, wrote recently: "maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and avoiding the influx of hot money will help stabilize China's financial system, and it is the best choice for the Central Bank of China."

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > RMB > /a > did not underestimate < /strong > /p >

P has always been an important basis for the us to exert pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi.

China's current account surplus was about 10% of GDP in 2007, when the US Congress quoted the data as "seriously undervalued", but to date, China's current account surplus is within 2% of the internationally recognized trade balance.

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According to the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, the total trade surplus in China in the first quarter was 102 billion 800 million yuan, and the total amount of GDP in the current period was 128213 billion yuan. The trade surplus accounted for 0.8% of the GDP share in P.

Recently, the foreign exchange administration released a quarterly surplus of only 44 billion 200 million yuan, accounting for GDP0.03%, almost negligible.

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< p > according to the calculation of < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > < < /a > by Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Nomura Securities, China: "China's current account surplus is close to zero in 1~2 years, and the pressure on RMB appreciation is insufficient again."

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< p > after the pressure of RMB appreciation has been lost under the current surplus, the US Treasury's "public opinion" has shifted to the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "China's central bank" /a "holding huge foreign exchange reserves.

In early April, the US Treasury Department said: "the Chinese government has accumulated $3 trillion and 800 billion in foreign exchange reserves, far exceeding the quota required for any measurement. Even so, the Chinese government bought a large amount of foreign exchange in the first quarter, which indicates that China continues to hinder the market formation mechanism of the exchange rate" and emphasizes that "the renminbi is seriously undervalued".

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< p > industry insiders point out that China's foreign exchange reserves are really high if compared with the countries whose currencies are fully open to the international currency and the capital account is completely open, but China implements the mandatory foreign exchange settlement system, which in itself will lead to a faster accumulation of China's official foreign exchange reserves.

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Arvind Subramanian, an economist at the Pedersen institution of the most authoritative international economic research institute in the United States, found that "the RMB is no longer underestimated" after studying the world price level data released by the world bank on purchasing power parity (P). < Arvind >

The Pedersen Institute has always held the view that "the renminbi is highly undervalued", and its research results have been cited by the US Congress as a corroboration of pressure on China.

But this is contrary to the conclusion of the US Treasury's pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi.

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Qiao Hong, chief economist of Morgan Stanley, uses the two variables of labor productivity and nominal wage in China and the United States to show that if the year 2000 is the base period, the RMB will be close to the US dollar in 2011, and there will be room for adjustment in 2000~2011 years, but 2011 is a turning point in 2011.

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< p > < strong > market recognition two-way fluctuation < /strong > < /p >

< p > Guo Guangcheng, senior executive director of Dow Fu bank, told reporters that the devaluation of the yuan and recent adjustments showed that the renminbi was no longer a currency of unilateral appreciation. Only two cities had liquidity is the normal market. Therefore, it is an inevitable process to achieve the marketization of RMB. Now investors are also generally accepting this fact.

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The fluctuation of P > RMB has obviously differentiated market expectations. Recently, Christopher Wood, a securities analyst at CLSA, commented that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has risen by 40% from the end of 2004 to the present.

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< p > there are also market participants who believe that "the overall appreciation of the renminbi at the end of the year will be stronger, but the middle concussion will be more. It is more about the operation of the economy and the market. In 2014, China will face more uncertainties in its economic operation, which will affect the trend of the RMB, and the anticipation on the market will also create a self fulfilling prophecy about the RMB trend."

At the end of 2013, market institutions generally expect the RMB to enter the 5 era in 2014, but now it is thought that there will be very few.

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< p > < strong > the central bank gradually withdrew from intervention < /strong > < /p >

Pedersen P has always supported the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi. Bergsten said: "in the whole year of 2013, China bought about 500 billion dollars in the foreign exchange market to avoid RMB appreciation too fast. In 2014, the amount of foreign exchange purchase per working day should be around us $2 billion, similar to that of last year."

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Since the beginning of this year, the relevant leaders of the central bank have stressed on many occasions and multiple documents that "the central bank will withdraw from normal intervention and strengthen the market to determine the strength of the exchange rate". P

In the first quarter of May 6th, the central bank said in its executive report on monetary policy: "in the future, the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism will continue to move towards marketization, increase the market's determination of exchange rate and promote the balance of international payments."

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