No Reduction Or Interest Rate Control Or Monetary Policy.

< p > central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said recently that there would be no large-scale stimulus at present.

This statement has poured cold water into the comprehensive reduction of expectations.

Analysts believe that the central bank may adopt a policy of not lowering the deposit reserve ratio and strictly controlling the upward interest rate policy, so as to maintain financial stability and reduce the financing cost of the real economy.

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< p > the current economic slowdown has slowed down, but the central bank has not yet increased the liquidity supply through the overall reduction of the deposit rate. The main reason may lie in: < /p >

< p > one is to guard against financial risks.

Maintaining financial stability is a major focus of this year's regulators and one of the important variables for monetary policy.

Since the two quarter, there have been some new changes in a series of data, indicating that some areas of financial risks are gathering momentum.

A quarterly report shows that the balance of non-performing loans and non-performing loan rates are generally rising.

Liu Shiyu, deputy governor of the central bank, recently said that the rise of the non-performing loan ratio in the banking sector has shown to some extent that the financial effect brought by the long cycle and long-span Pro cyclical period has entered a significant turning point.

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< p > analysts believe that the negative impact of the real estate bubble on the economic structure will increase.

Housing prices in the three or four tier cities showed a marked decline.

Once there is a directional change in the trend of house prices, a "super drop" will be formed through various positive feedback mechanisms, which may become a trigger for financial turbulence.

The expansion of shadow banking and the high debt ratio of enterprises make the financial risk further increase. Therefore, tight monetary policy will be the long-term and structural characteristics of our future macro policy.

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< p > two is the current < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > liquidity < /a > generally speaking, it is still more relaxed.

Foreign exchange reserves of financial institutions have been increasing for eight consecutive months.

The scale of social financing in the first four months was basically the same as that of the same period last year.

Interbank market interest rates remained at a low level.

In the downward process of economic growth, the role of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > monetary policy < /a > is limited.

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< p > compared with the opening of the mobile gate, reducing the financing cost of entity < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > economic < /a > has become an urgent task for the current macroeconomic regulation and control.

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< p > the rate of return on investment in China is decreasing gradually, which shows that the financing cost of the real economy is high.

It is estimated that China's investment return rate was only 2.7% in 2012.

The annual rate of return on investment in China between 1979 and 2007 is 3.72%, from 2008 to 2012 to 2.21%.

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< p > in recent years, the shadow banking system has been expanding rapidly to meet the financing needs of enterprises. At the same time, it has pushed up the cost of financing, and a large number of banks eventually bypass the trust funds, securities, funds and other channels.

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< p > in addition, bank debt costs continue to rise, pushing up lending rates.

Financial disintermediation keeps the proportion of demand liabilities of banks declining.

The yield of bank financial products has gone up all the way.

The retention rate of large financial institutions remained at 20%, the Reserve interest rate was 1.62%, and the interest rate reserve of more than 10 trillion yuan pushed up bank costs.

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< p > can be expected that the central bank will have more "interest rate" measures.

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< p > one is to regulate liquidity through open market operation.

At present, the central bank is "omnipotent" in the open market.

When liquidity is tight, the central bank can provide liquidity through suspension of repo, reverse repurchase, the use of various standing credit facilities and refinancing facilities.

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< p > two is to intensify the consolidation of various industries and financial services, reduce the cost of financing intermediate links and bank liabilities.

Regulators of financial institutions are expected to jointly launch more stringent measures to expand the scope of supervision within the industry and intensify their efforts in the same industry.

The Internet financial management business will be further standardized.

While regulating interbank financial services, the pace of interest rate marketization may slow down moderately.

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< p > three is to promote financial reform and system improvement.

We will continue to expand the proportion of direct financing, enhance the status of capital markets in the national economy, continue to promote the development of bond markets, rely on financial markets to provide investment for railway investment, guarantee investment in shanty towns, and promote the development of municipal bonds.

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